Abstract
Drought is one of the main causes of food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty. It is therefore important to understand the perception of farmers on socioeconomic and environmental impacts of drought and the strategies employed to manage it. Using data collected from 301 smallholder households in Thaba Nchu, South Africa, the study contributes to three perspectives: analyse the perceived impact of drought, examine the determinants of the perceived impact, and identify factors affecting the intensity of drought-risk management (DRM) practices employed by smallholder farming households. The findings from the principal component analysis (PCA) revealed three main dimensions of the perceived drought impact: social, economic, and environmental impacts. The results from the seemingly unrelated regression analysis applied to the three PCA dimensions indicated that different socio-economic and institutional factors have a different influence on the three dimensions. In addition, the results from the count data modelling showed that factors such as age, household size, non-farm work and extension services are significant in determining the intensity of DRM strategies implemented by farmers in the study area. The study therefore recommends that climate risk management be integrated into the provision of extension services, particularly in drought-prone areas such as the Free State Province. Furthermore, encouraging farmers to engage in non-agricultural economic activities is also crucial, as this can serve as insurance against events such as drought.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and materials
The datasets used to analyse this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Abid M, Scheffran J, Schneider UA, Ashfaq M (2015) Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province. Pak Earth Syst. Dyn 6(1):225–243
Alam GM, Alam K, Mushtaq S (2017) Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh. Clim Risk Manag 17:52–63
Ali A, Erenstein O (2017) Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Clim Risk Manag 16:183–194
Asante BO, Villano RA, Patrick IW, Battese GE (2018) Determinants of farm diversification in integrated crop-livestock farming systems in Ghana. Renewable Agric Food Syst 33(2):131
Asfaw S, Pallante G, Palma A (2018) Diversification strategies and adaptation deficit: Evidence from rural communities in Niger. World Dev 101:219–234
Bawakyillenuo S, Yaro JA, Teye J (2016) Exploring the autonomous adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability in selected villages in the rural northern savannah zone of Ghana. Local Environ 21(3):361–382
Bellon, M. R., Kotu, B. H., Azzarri, C., and Caracciolo, F. (2020). To diversify or not to diversify, that is the question. Pursuing agricultural development for smallholder farmers in marginal areas of Ghana. World Development, 125, 104682.
Botai CM, Botai JO, Dlamini LC, Zwane NS, Phaduli E (2016) Characteristics of droughts in South Africa: a case study of free state and north west provinces. Water 8(10):439
Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environ Sci Policy 12(4):413–426
Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy. 2015. Policy brief on the 2015/2016 drought. Integrated Value Information System: 4–17.
Cameron, A., and Trivedi, P. (2010). September 2010. Microeconometrics Using Stata (Vol 2). College Station, TX: Stata Press.
Cameron A, Trivedi PK (1990) Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model. Journal of Econometrics 46(3):347–364
Ching, L., Edwards, S., and El-Hage, S. N. (2011). Climate change and food systems resilience in sub-Saharan Africa. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations of the United Nation, Publishing Policy and Support Branch, Office of Knowledge, Research and Extension, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Chang 3(1):52–58
Ehiakpor, D. S., Danso-Abbeam, G., and Baah, J. E. (2016). Cocoa farmers' perception on climate variability and its effects on adaptation strategies in th Suaman district of western region, Ghana. Cogent Food and Agriculture, 2(1), 1210557.
Field A (2009) Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows, 3rd edn. Sage Publications, London, UK
Greene WH (2008) Econometric analysis, 6th edn. Pearson, Upper Saddle River NJ, Upper Saddle River NJ
Hair Jr, J. F., Sarstedt, M., Hopkins, L., and Kuppelwieser, V. G. (2014). Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM): An emerging tool in business research. European business review, 26(2), 106–121.
Hansen, J.W., Dilley, M., Goddard, L., Ebrahimian, E., Ericksen, P., 2004. Climate Variability and the Millennium Development Goal Hunger Target. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, The Earth Institute of Columbia University Palisades, New York, 10964, USA. IRI Technical Report No. 04-04.
Hassan RM, Nhemachena C (2008) Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: Multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2(311-2016–5521):83–104
Hellmuth M, Osgood D, Hess U, Moorhead A, Bhojwani H (2009) Climate and society. No. 2. IRI, Columbia University, New York, USA
IPCC (2014). AR5 climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Accessed 11/20/2019
Israel MA, Amikuzuno J, Danso-Abbeam G (2020) Assessing farmers’ contribution to greenhouse gas emission and the impact of adopting climate-smart agriculture on mitigation. Ecol Process 9(1):1–10
Keesstra S (2007) Impact of natural reforestation on floodplain sedimentation in the Dragonja basin, SW Slovenia. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: the Journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group 32(1):49–65
Keshavarzi S, Ayatollahi SMT, Zare N, Sharif F (2013) Quality of life of childbearing age women and its associated factors: an application of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. Qual Life Res 22:1255–1263
Kogo BK, Kumar L, Koech R (2021) Climate change and variability in Kenya: a review of impacts on agriculture and food security. Environment, Development and Sustainability 23(1): 23–43.
Linke AM, Witmer FD, O’Loughlin J (2020) Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya. Clim Change 162(3):1143–1160
Maddala, G., and Flores-Lagunes, A. (2001). Qualitative response models. A companion to theoretical econometrics, pages 366-382. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470996249.ch18
Mahama A, Awuni JA, Mabe FN, Azumah SB (2020) Modelling adoption intensity of improved soybean production technologies in Ghana-a Generalized Poisson approach. Heliyon 6(3):e03543
Mamba SF (2016) Factors influencing perception of climate variability and change among smallholder farmers in Swaziland. Indian Journal of Nutrition 3(2):138–142
Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality Draft Integrated Development Plan. 2017. Impact on farmers and the agricultural sector. Available online: http://www.thabomofutsanyana.gov.za/downloads/Final%20IDP%202014-15.pdf.
Maponya P, Mpandeli S (2013) Perception of farmers on climate change and adaptation in Limpopo Province of South Africa. J Hum Ecol 42(3):283–288
Martey E, Kuwornu JK (2021) Perceptions of Climate Variability and Soil Fertility Management Choices Among Smallholder Farmers in Northern Ghana. Ecol Econ 180:106870
Moeletsi ME, Walker S (2012) Assessment of agricultural drought using a simple water balance model in the Free State Province of South Africa. Theoret Appl Climatol 108(3–4):425–8450
Mohmmed A, Zhang K, Kabenge M, Keesstra S, Cerdà A, Reuben M, Ali, A. A. (2018) Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan. Land Degrad Dev 29(12):4424–4438
Msangi J (2004) Drought hazard and desertification management in the drylands of Southern Africa. Environ Monit Assess 99(1–3):75–87
Nanganga J, Safalaoh AC (2020) Climate Change and Weather Variability Effects on Cattle Production: Perception of Cattle Keepers in Chikwawa. Climate Impacts on Agricultural and Natural Resource Sustainability in Africa. Springer, Malawi, pp 213–225
Niles MT, Lubell M, Haden VR (2013) Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers. Glob Environ Chang 23(6):1752–1760
Nkegbe PK, Shankar B (2014) Adoption intensity of soil and water conservation practices by smallholders: evidence from Northern Ghana. Bio-Based App Econ J 3(1050):159–174
Ojo T, Baiyegunhi L (2020) Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies and its impact on the net farm income of rice farmers in south-west Nigeria. Land Use Policy 95:103946
Owens T, Hoddinott J, Kinsey B (2003) Ex-ante actions and ex-post public responses to drought shocks: Evidence and simulations from Zimbabwe. World Dev 31(7):1239–1255
Panthi J, Aryal S, Dahal P, Bhandari P, Krakauer NY, Pandey VP (2016) Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal. Reg Environ Change 16(4):1121–1132
Shiferaw B, Tesfaye K, Kassie M, Abate T, Prasanna B, Menkir A (2014) Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options. Weather and Climate Extremes 3:67–79
Shoroma, L.B. 2014. Mitigating the effects of recurrent drought: The case of Setlagole community, Ratlou Municipality (North West Province). Master's mini-dissertation, Disaster Studies, North-West University, South Africa
South African Weather Service (SAWS). Meteorological Services under the South African Government. 2015. http://www.weathersa.co.za/web/index.php.
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). 2011. Available online: http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=993&id=mangaung-municipality.
Tavakol M, Dennick R (2011) Making sense of Cronbach’s alpha. Int J Med Educ 2:53
Tesso G, Emana B, Ketema M (2012) Analysis of vulnerability and resilience to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa. Ethiopia Agricultural Sciences 3(06):871
Thilakarathne M, Sridhar V (2017) Characterization of future drought conditions in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes 17:47–58
Thinda K, Ogundeji A, Belle J, Ojo T (2020) Understanding the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers: Evidence from land reform beneficiaries in South Africa. Land Use Policy 99:104858
DS Thomas C Twyman H Osbahr B Hewitson 2011 Adaptation to climate change and variability: Farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa. African Climate and Climate Change: Physical, Social and Political Perspectives, 155–178.
Wale ZE, Unity C, Nolwazi H (2021) Towards identifying enablers and inhibitors to on-farm entrepreneurship: evidence from smallholders in KwaZulu-Natal. South Africa Heliyon 7(1):e05660
Wilhite, D. A., and Vanyarkho, O. V. (2000). Chapter 18 Drought: Pervasive impacts of a creeping phenomenon. Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications 71. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/71.
Williams PA, Crespo O, Abu M (2019) Adapting to changing climate through improving adaptive capacity at the local level–The case of smallholder horticultural producers in Ghana. Clim Risk Manag 23:124–135
Yegbemey RN, Gouwakinnou JY, Azumah SB (2024) Understanding farmers’ awareness of Climate Services: knowledge, practice, and attitude towards weather information in Benin. West Africa Regional Environmental Change 24(1):27
Zaman K, Khan H, Khan MM, Saleem Z, Nawaz M (2011) The impact of population on environmental degradation in South Asia: application of seemingly unrelated regression equation model. Environmental Economics 2(2):80–88
Zereyesus YA, Embaye WT, Tsiboe F, Amanor-Boadu V (2017) Implications of non-farm work to vulnerability to food poverty-recent evidence from Northern Ghana. World Dev 91:113–124
Acknowledgements
The paper is based on research that was conducted as part of a research project, “farmers’ coping and adaptation strategies to drought and other water related risks in a changing climate (TTK160610170148)”, which was funded by the National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Thuthuka funding instrument (NRF rating track) grant. Financial and other assistance by the NRF are gratefully acknowledged. Financial assistance by the University of the Free State through the Central Research Fund (CRF) of the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences is also gratefully acknowledged.
Funding
The study did not receive direct funding for publication.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the different stages of the study. GDA conceptualized the idea, was involved in the analysis of the data, and wrote the draft manuscript. AAO supervised the study and provided comments on the manuscript. TOO was actively involved in the data analysis and interpretation. CCO collected the data and was actively in the methodology write-up. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare that there exists no competing interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix I
Appendix I
1.1 Number of selected households
Community names | Number of Household | ||
---|---|---|---|
1 | Rakhoi | 78 | 44 |
2 | Ratabane | 72 | 42 |
3 | Longridge | 35 | 26 |
4 | Middeldeel | 114 | 53 |
165 | |||
1 | Noga's Post | 99 | 50 |
2 | Eureka | 39 | 28 |
3 | Yorksford | 47 | 32 |
110 | |||
Area: Central Thaba Nchu | |||
1 | Thubisi | 96 | 49 |
Total | 324 |
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Danso-Abbeam, G., Okolie, C.C., Ojo, T.O. et al. Understanding drought impacts on livelihoods and risk management strategies: South African smallholder farmers' perspectives. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06561-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06561-w