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Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China

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Abstract

This paper presents a scenario-based study that investigates the interaction between sea-level rise and land subsidence on the storm tides induced fluvial flooding in the Huangpu river floodplain. Two projections of relative sea level rise (RSLR) were presented (2030 and 2050). Water level projections at the gauging stations for different return periods were generated using a simplified algebraic summation of the eustatic sea-level rise, land subsidence and storm tide level. Frequency analysis with relative sea level rise taken into account shows that land subsidence contributes to the majority of the RSLR (between 60 % and 70 %). Furthermore, a 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model (FloodMap) was used to predict the river flow and flood inundation, after calibration using the August 1997 flood event. Numerical simulation with projected RSLR suggests that, the combined impact of eustatic sea-level rise and land subsidence would be a significantly reduced flood return period for a given water level, thus effective degradation of the current flood defences. In the absence of adaptation measures, storm flooding will cause up to 40 % more inundation, particularly in the upstream of the river.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation in China (Grant No: 41201550, 41071324, 40730526), the Humanities and Social Science Project of Education Ministry (Grant No: 12YJCZH257), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant No: 13YZ061, 13ZZ035), Key Subject Developing Project by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant No: J50402). We would also like to thank four anonymous reviewers for their very constructive and helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Tourism and City Management, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China

    Jie Yin

  2. Center for Hydrological and Ecosystem Science, Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK

    Dapeng Yu

  3. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China

    Zhane Yin

  4. Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of the Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

    Jun Wang & Shiyuan Xu

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  1. Jie Yin
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  2. Dapeng Yu
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  3. Zhane Yin
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  4. Jun Wang
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  5. Shiyuan Xu
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Correspondence to Jie Yin.

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Yin, J., Yu, D., Yin, Z. et al. Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China. Climatic Change 119, 919–932 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0749-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0749-9

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