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Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India

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Abstract

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS—a regional climate model—on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021–2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021–2030, 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030–2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.

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Acknowledgments

Authors are thankful to IITM Pune for providing PRECIS model data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Soil Science, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 141004, India

    Bharat Bhushan Vashisht, S. K. Jalota & Harsimran Kaur

  2. Department of Soil, Water and Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA

    Bharat Bhushan Vashisht & D. J. Mulla

  3. Department of Soil and Water Engineering, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 141004, India

    Samanpreet Kaur

  4. PAU Regional Station, Ballowal Saunkhri, Nawanshahr, Punjab, India

    Sher Singh

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  1. Bharat Bhushan Vashisht
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  3. S. K. Jalota
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Correspondence to Bharat Bhushan Vashisht.

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Vashisht, B.B., Mulla, D.J., Jalota, S.K. et al. Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India. Reg Environ Change 13, 989–998 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0412-z

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