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Use of daily precipitation uncertainties in streamflow simulation and forecast

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Abstract

Among other sources of uncertainties in hydrologic modeling, input uncertainty due to a sparse station network was tested. The authors tested impact of uncertainty in daily precipitation on streamflow forecasts. In order to test the impact, a distributed hydrologic model (PRMS, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System) was used in two hydrologically different basins (Animas basin at Durango, Colorado and Alapaha basin at Statenville, Georgia) to generate ensemble streamflows. The uncertainty in model inputs was characterized using ensembles of daily precipitation, which were designed to preserve spatial and temporal correlations in the precipitation observations. Generated ensemble flows in the two test basins clearly showed fundamental differences in the impact of input uncertainty. The flow ensemble showed wider range in Alapaha basin than the Animas basin. The wider range of streamflow ensembles in Alapaha basin was caused by both greater spatial variance in precipitation and shorter time lags between rainfall and runoff in this rainfall dominated basin. This ensemble streamflow generation framework was also applied to demonstrate example forecasts that could improve traditional ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) method.

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Acknowledgments

Partial support of this work by NOAA GAPP program (Award NA16GP2806) and the NOAA RISA Program (Award NA17RJ1229) is thankfully acknowledged. The authors also wish to thank George Leavesley and Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom at the USGS for providing valuable comments and data that greatly enhanced the quality of the entire analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Engineering, Arkansas State University, P.O. Box 1740, State University, AR, 72467, USA

    Yeonsang Hwang

  2. Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA

    Martyn P. Clark

  3. Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA

    Balaji Rajagopalan

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  1. Yeonsang Hwang
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  2. Martyn P. Clark
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Correspondence to Yeonsang Hwang.

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Hwang, Y., Clark, M.P. & Rajagopalan, B. Use of daily precipitation uncertainties in streamflow simulation and forecast. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 957–972 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0460-1

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