Abstract
Expanding the South American renewable energy matrix to ensure more sustainable socio-economic development, mitigate the climate change effects, and meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement is crucial. Hence, this study sought to estimate South America’s wind speed and wind power density alterations projected by eight global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6 (CMIP6). To this end, we applied statistical downscaling and bias correction to the GCMs outputs through the Quantile Delta Mapping method and assessed the projected changes in wind power in future climate under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. ERA5 reanalysis data from 1995 to 2014 validated the models’ historical simulations. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble indicated an approximate 25–50% increase in wind power density in sectors such as Northeast and South Brazil and growing wind power in regions such as Argentine Patagonia, northern Venezuela, and portions of Uruguay, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Estimates of the wind power growth for the twenty-first century in those regions reiterated their potential performance in the historical period. For the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario, the ensemble projections indicated even more favorable wind power conditions in the sectors mentioned. However, individual projections of wind intensity anomalies obtained by each ensemble member showed a large spread among the GCMs, evidencing the uncertainties associated with the prospects of change in wind power on the continent. Furthermore, this study has presented a first analysis of CMIP6 projections for South American wind power generation, providing relevant information to the energy sector decision-makers.
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Source: United States Geological Survey-Earth Resources Observation System (EROS) Center
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Availability of data and materials
The CMIP6 climate models are available at: https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis is available at: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/. Observational data from the SONDA network is available at http://sonda.ccst.inpe.br/index.html.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), CAPES, ANEEL, and the companies Engie Brasil Energia and Energética Estreito for their financial support. The authors also thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and the National Environmental Data Organization (SONDA) for the data used in this study.
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This study received financial support from the R&D Program regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) and the companies Engie Brasil Energia and Energética Estreito (R&D-00403–54/2022), and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education (CAPES, Finance Code 001).
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de Souza Ferreira, G.W., Reboita, M.S., Ribeiro, J.G.M. et al. Assessment of the wind power density over South America simulated by CMIP6 models in the present and future climate. Clim Dyn 62, 1729–1763 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06993-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06993-3