Abstract
Owing to the East Asian summer monsoon, extreme precipitation occurred frequently over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), leading to flooding and secondary disasters. Therefore, understanding the physical mechanism and seeking predictability sources of extreme precipitation in the YRB are of scientific and practical importance. The present study examines the independent and compound impacts of leading sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean on summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over the YRB.
The Indian Ocean basin-wide uniform SST mode (the Indian Ocean Basin Mode) influences the EPDs over the YRB by inducing a Kelvin wave response and the Pacific–Japan pattern, whereas the two leading SST modes of the North Atlantic Ocean show different meridional tripole patterns with different climate impacts on East Asia. The North Atlantic SST tripole southern mode (NATS) induces quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains over mid-latitude Eurasia and the tropical waves that influence the EPDs in the YRB. The North Atlantic SST tripole northern mode (NATN) impacts the circulation anomaly over Northeast Asia through inducing different Eurasian quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains.
When the IOBM and the NATS are both in the positive phase, enhanced EPDs occur over the YRB. On the one hand, the IOBM induces a Kelvin wave response, which strengthens the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). On the other hand, the NATS stimulates the mid-latitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves and results in the Northeast Asia anomalous cyclone (NEAC). The warm, moist air over the northwestern flank of the WNPAC and the cold, dry air over the southern flank of the NEAC converge in the YRB, leading to more EPDs in the region. When the IOBM and the NATN are out of phase, the Kelvin wave response in terms of the WNPAC induced by the IOBM warming is modulated by the negative phase of the NATN via quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains over mid-latitude Eurasia, resulting in more EPDs in the YRB.
Based on the compound effect of different SST modes in the two ocean basins, the year-to-year EPDs over the YRB can be reconstructed reasonably well, which provides useful predictability sources for the seasonal prediction.
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Data Availability
The monthly mean SST data from the improved Extended Reconstructed SST dataset V5 are available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html. The monthly mean SST data from the Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST dataset V1.1 are available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. The monthly mean geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind provided by ERA5 are openly available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5. The monthly mean precipitation data provided by NOAA can be downloaded from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 42175033, 41975085 and 42088101) and the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 42175033, 41975085 and 42088101).
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ZZ contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by YF and ZZ. The first draft of the manuscript was written by ZZ, and all authors revised the manuscript.
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Zhu, Z., Feng, Y., Jiang, W. et al. The compound impacts of sea surface temperature modes in the Indian and North Atlantic oceans on the extreme precipitation days in the Yangtze River Basin. Clim Dyn 61, 3327–3341 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06733-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06733-7