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Subseasonal strength reversal of the East Asian winter monsoon

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Abstract

As one of the most significant circulation systems over the Northern Hemisphere in the cold season, the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has been broadly investigated from the seasonal-mean perspective, while subseasonal variations in the EAWM still remain ambiguous. Based on Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, this study shows that the subseasonal strength reversal of the EAWM (SR-EAWM), featuring a weaker (or stronger) EAWM in early winter (December) and a stronger (or weaker) EAWM in late winter (January–February), is a distinct leading mode of the month-to-month variation of the EAWM. The weak-to-strong SR-EAWM is characterized by an anomalous low over Eurasia and a weakened East Asian major trough (EAT) in early winter, with an intensified Siberian High and a deepened EAT in late winter. The SR-EAWM is preceded by surface air temperature anomalies over Davis Strait (DST) and those over central-eastern North America (CENAT) in September–October. The DST mainly influences the SR-EAWM in early winter through a “sea ice bridge” of the November Baffin Bay sea ice concentration anomaly (BBSIC). The BBSIC could intensify the DST in December by altering surface heat flux, thus exciting a downstream atmospheric response and modulating the strength of the EAT in early winter. The CENAT affects the SR-EAWM in late winter by inducing an “ocean bridge” of the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (WNASST). The WNASST can persist into late winter and then significantly affects the SR-EAWM by regulating Eurasian circulation anomalies and the downstream EAT. The bridge roles of the BBSIC and WNASST can be further verified by a linear baroclinic model. Finally, two physical-empirical models are established using the DST/BBSIC and the CENAT indices, respectively. Both exhibit promising prediction skills. The results highlight that the DST, BBSIC, and CENAT are crucial predictability sources for the SR-EAWM.

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Data availability

The ERA5 reanalysis data, SIC data and ERSST v5 data are available from the following websites: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-data-store, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/ and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html, respectively. Other data applied in this study are available upon request from the authors.

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Acknowledgements

This research was jointly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Major Research Plan on West-Pacific Earth System Multi-spheric Interactions (project number: 92158203), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0102) and NSFC (Grant Nos. 91937302 and 41790475).

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Major Research Plan on West-Pacific Earth System Multi-spheric Interactions (project number: 92158203), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0102) and NSFC (Grant Nos. 91937302 and 41790475).

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  1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, and Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction, Fudan University, 2005 Songhu Rd, Shanghai, 200438, China

    Wogu Zhong & Zhiwei Wu

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  1. Wogu Zhong
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WZ: designed the research under the supervision of ZW, WZ: prepared figures and wrote the main manuscript. ZW: reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Zhiwei Wu.

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Zhong, W., Wu, Z. Subseasonal strength reversal of the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn 61, 709–727 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06610-9

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