Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and annual precipitation extreme indices for Japan were characterized for the period 1901–2012 using the Mann–Kendall Tau test, regional analysis, and probability distribution functions, and possible correlations with climate indices including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the sea surface temperature were explored using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that precipitation amounts exhibited a substantial dec rease at both the annual and seasonal scales, and the fluctuation became more frequent and stronger in the recent decades. Precipitation tended to be concentrated in summer and autumn throughout Japan and the southwest had higher precipitation than the southeast in the spring, summer, and autumn, with precipitation concentrated in the southeast in the winter. On a regional scale, the number of heavy precipitation days, consecutive wet days and total wet-day precipitation indicated a decreasing trend, while an increasing trend for maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amount, precipitation in very wet days and the number of consecutive dry days. These changes have been an important issue for supplying the demand of water resources in Japan. Continuous wavelet analysis shows that there were significant periodic variations at 2–3 and 5–13 years frequency in extreme precipitation. In addition, climate indices have significant correlations with extreme precipitation, for example, there is statistically significant association between the increasing extreme precipitation and SOI.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aguilar E, Auer I, Brunet M, Peterson TC, Wieringa J (2003) Guidance on metadata and homogenization. WMO TD 1186:53

    Google Scholar 

  • Aguilar E, Aziz Barry A, Brunet M, Ekang L, Fernandes A, Massoukina M, Mbah J, Mhanda A, Do Nascimento DJ, Peterson TC (2009) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006. J Geophys Res 114:10–1029

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:10–1029

    Google Scholar 

  • Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30:10–1029

    Google Scholar 

  • Bertacchi Uvo C, Olsson J, Morita O, Jinno K, Kawamura A, Nishiyama K, Koreeda N, Nakashima T (2001) Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:259–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang C, Zhang Y, Li T (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs, part I: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choi G, Collins D, Ren G, Trewin B, Baldi M, Fukuda Y, Afzaal M, Pianmana T, Gomboluudev P, Huong PTT (2009) Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. Int J Climatol 29:1906–1925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coumou D, Rahmstorf S (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nat Clim Change 2:491–496

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:45–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W, He B, Takara K, Luo P, Nover D, Sahu N, Yamashiki Y (2013) Spatiotemporal evaluation of water quality incidents in Japan between 1996 and 2007. Chemosphere 93:946–953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W, He B, Takara K, Luo P, Nover D, Yamashiki Y, Huang W (2014) Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods, July 11–14, 2012. Nat Hazards 73(3):1255–1267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujibe F (2013) Clausius–Clapeyron-like relationship in multidecadal changes of extreme short-term precipitation and temperature in Japan. Atmos Sci Lett 14:127–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Katsuyama M, Kobayashi K (2005) The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years. SOLA 1:41–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Kobayashi K (2006) Long-term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901–2004). J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84(6):1033–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Francisco R (2000) Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change. Geophys Res Lett 27(9):1295–1298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Process Geophys 11:561–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guttman NB (1998) Homogeneity, data adjustments and Climatic Normals. National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, United State

  • Haylock M, Nicholls N (2000) Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910–1998. Int J Climatol 20:1533–1541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, McLeod AI (2005) Time series modelling of water resources and environmental systems. Electronic reprint of our book originally published in 1994. http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/1994Book/

  • Iwasaki H, Sunaga Y (2009) Study of recent variation in weak rainfall over Japan using 31-year AMeDAS dataset. Sci Online Lett Atmos 5:157–159

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin Y, Kawamura A, Jinno K, Berndtsson R (2005) Quantitative relationship between SOI and observed precipitation in southern Korea and Japan by nonparametric approaches. J Hydrol 301:54–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jung HS, Choi Y, Oh JH, Lim GH (2002) Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over South Korea. Int J Climatol 22:1327–1337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kawamoto N, Oki R, Shimizu S (2011) Comparison between TRMM/PR and AMeDAS ground rain gauge network in terms of annual rainfall. In: IEEE International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS). Vancouver, Canada, pp 2590–2593

  • Kimoto M, Yasutomi N, Yokoyama C, Emori S (2005) Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around Japan under the global warming. SOLA 1:85–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy CKB, Lall U, Kwon HH (2009) Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J Clim 22:4737–4746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuo Y, Chu H, Pan T, Yu H (2011) Investigating common trends of annual maximum rainfalls during heavy rainfall events in southern Taiwan. J Hydrol 409:749–758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee S, Byun H, Tanaka HL (2012) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought occurrences over Japan. J Appl Meteorol Clim 51:1087–1098

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, He Y, Wang P, Theakstone WH, An W, Wang X, Lu A, Zhang W, Cao W (2012) Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961–2008. Glob Planet Change 80:255–272

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann H (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manton MJ, Della Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE, Collins DA, Daw G, Finet A, Gunawan D (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miyajima J, Fujibe F (2011) Climatology of extreme precipitation in Japan for different time scales. SOLA 7:157–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura H, Izumi T, Sampe T (2002) Interannual and decadal modulations recently observed in the Pacific storm track activity and East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 15:1855–1874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP (2007) Numerical recipes 3rd edition: the art of scientific computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1256 p)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian W, Kang H, Lee D (2002) Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region. Theor Appl Climatol 73:151–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajczak J, Pall P, Schär C (2013) Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3610–3626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Río S, Herrero L, Fraile R, Penas A (2011) Spatial distribution of recent rainfall trends in Spain (1961–2006). Int J Climatol 31:656–667

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowell DP (2012) Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation. Clim Dyn 39:1929–1950

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saito H, Nakayama D, Matsuyama H (2010) Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity—duration thresholds in Japan. Geomorphology 118:167–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen Roy S, Balling RC (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24:457–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1716–1733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol. Cambridge University Press

  • Stocker TF, Qin D, Platner GK (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. summary for policymakers (IPCC)

  • Sugiyama M, Shiogama H, Emori S (2010) Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:571–575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suzuki K, Hayakawa S (2006) Convective precipitation in Yamaguchi Prefecture in summer. J Agric Meteorol 62:127–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takeshita S (2010) Influence on precipitation and the distribution in Miyazaki [Japan] Prefecture with climate changes. Bull Fac Agric Miyazaki Univ 56:73–78 (Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. B Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villafuerte MQ II, Matsumoto J, Akasaka I, Takahashi HG, Kubota H, Cinco TA (2014) Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines. Atmos Res 137:1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF (2011) On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States. J Hydrol 400:103–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vincent LA, Peterson TC, Barros VR, Marino MB, Rusticucci M, Carrasco G, Ramirez E, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Berlato MA (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Clim 18:5011–5023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XL (2003) Comments on “Detection of undocumented changepoints: a revision of the two-phase regression model”. J Clim 16:3383–3385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XL (2008) Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:2423–2444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y, Zhou L (2005) Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961–2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L09707

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Liu J, Kim H, Webster PJ, Yim S, Xiang B (2013) Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:5347–5352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie S, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Ma J, Teng H, Wittenberg AT (2010) Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J Clim 23:966–986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yamaguchi K, Noda A (2006) Global warming patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84:221–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zalina M, Desa M, Nguyen V, Kassim A (2002) Selecting a probability distribution for extreme rainfall series in Malaysia. Water Sci Technol 45:63–68

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, Pan X (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Delworth TL (2007) Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23708

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Climate Research Branch Environment, Ontario, Canada

  • Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:851–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41471460,  41130750), the “One Hundred Talents Program” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Kyoto University Global COE program “Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Conditions” and “Global Center for Education and Research on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities”. We also wish to acknowledge Dr. Enric Aguilar and Dr. Masahito Ishihara for their comments. The first author would like to thank China Scholarship Council (CSC) for his PhD scholarships.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China

    Weili Duan, Bin He & Pingping Luo

  2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China

    Weili Duan & Bin He

  3. Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Weili Duan, Pingping Luo & Maochuan Hu

  4. Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University Uji, Room E314D, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan

    Weili Duan, Kaoru Takara & Nor Eliza Alias

  5. AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Agency for International Development, Ghana, West Africa

    Daniel Nover

Authors
  1. Weili Duan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bin He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kaoru Takara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Pingping Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Maochuan Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Nor Eliza Alias
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Daniel Nover
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Weili Duan.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest in the research.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Duan, W., He, B., Takara, K. et al. Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices. Clim Dyn 45, 2273–2292 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2778-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2778-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation