Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods, July 11–14, 2012

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

During July 11–14, 2012, deadly floods and landslides triggered by a series of unprecedented heavy rains hit Kyushu, Japan, causing at least 32 deaths and around 400,000 evacuations. We focus on synoptic anomalies identified after inspecting rainfall patterns and documenting the conditions associated with this tragic event using data combined from the Global Rainfall Map in Near Real Time data, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset, and the global forecast system. Rainfall maps indicated that there were many heavy rains in Kyushu in these days and this disaster was associated with the pattern of forecasts and standardized anomalies. A weather trough with positive height anomalies appeared, the center of which moved to the north of Japan over this period, which might cause wind anomalies and whereby lots of water vapor were transported to Kyushu area with up to 90 m s−1, and high values of precipitable water formed with up to 60 mm. These results suggest that a larger-scale pattern is conducive for heavy rainfall and the anomalies put the pattern in context as to the potential for an extreme rainfall event, which can provide insights and methods for predicting extreme events’ or something similar.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ashley ST, Ashley WS (2008) The storm morphology of deadly flooding events in the United States. Int J Climatol 28:493–503

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barras VJ, Simmonds I (2008) Synoptic controls upon δ18O in southern Tasmanian precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 35:L2707

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barry RG, Chorley RJ (2003) Atmosphere, weather and climate. Psychology Press, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Curtis S, Crawford TW, Lecce SA (2007) A comparison of TRMM to other basin-scale estimates of rainfall during the 1999 Hurricane Floyd flood. Nat Hazard 43:187–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doswell III CA (1985) The operational meteorology of convective weather, Volume 2. Storm scale analysis. DTIC Document

  • Doty B, Kinter J (1995) Geophysical data analysis and visualization using the grid analysis and display system. Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc, Visualization techniques in space and atmospheric sciences pp 209–217(SEE N 96-25512 09- 82)

  • Duan W, He B, Takara K, Luo P, Nover D, Sahu N, Yamashiki Y (2013a) Spatiotemporal evaluation of water quality incidents in Japan between 1996 and 2007. Chemosphere 93:946–953

    Google Scholar 

  • Duan W, Takara K, He B, Luo P, Nover D, Yamashiki Y (2013b) Spatial and temporal trends in estimates of nutrient and suspended sediment loads in the Ishikari River, Japan, 1985 to 2010. Sci Total Environ 461:499–508

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham RA, Grumm RH (2010) Utilizing normalized anomalies to assess synoptic-scale weather events in the western United States. Weather Forecast 25:428–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grumm RH (2011) New England record maker rain event of 29–30 March 2010 NWA. Electron J Oper Meteorol EJ4 12: 1–31

    Google Scholar 

  • Grumm RH (2012) Beijing flood of 21 July 2012. http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/2012/21Jul2012.pdf

  • Grumm RH, Hart R (2001) Standardized anomalies applied to significant cold season weather events: preliminary findings. Weather Forecast 16:736–754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutowski WJ Jr, Willis SS, Patton JC, Schwedler BR, Arritt RW, Takle ES (2008) Changes in extreme, cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haeseler S (2012) Heavy rains on Kyushu/Japan in July 2012. http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/DWDWWW/Content/Oeffentlichkeit/KU/KU2/KU24/besondere__ereignisse__global/niederschlaege/englischeberichte/2012__Kyushu,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/2012_Kyushu.pdf

  • Hart RE, Grumm RH (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectively. Mon Weather Rev 129:2426–2442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houze RA Jr, Rasmussen KL, Medina S, Brodzik SR, Romatschke U (2011) Anomalous atmospheric events leading to the summer 2010 floods in Pakistan. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:291–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iwasaki H (2012) Recent positive trend in heavy rainfall in eastern Japan and its relation with variations in atmospheric moisture. Int J Climatol 32:364–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Junker NW, Grumm RH, Hart R, Bosart LF, Bell KM, Pereira FJ (2008) Use of normalized anomaly fields to anticipate extreme rainfall in the mountains of northern California. Weather Forecast 23:336–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahana R, Ziv B, Enzel Y, Dayan U (2002) Synoptic climatology of major floods in the Negev Desert, Israel. Int J Climatol 22:867–882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kidd C (2001) Satellite rainfall climatology: a review. Int J Climatol 21:1041–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kotlarski S, Hagemann S, Krahe P, Podzun R, Jacob D (2012) The Elbe river flooding 2002 as seen by an extended regional climate model. J Hydrol 472–473:169–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kubota T, Shige S, Hashizume H, Aonashi K, Takahashi N, Seto S, Takayabu YN, Ushio T, Nakagawa K, Iwanami K (2007) Global precipitation map using satellite-borne microwave radiometers by the GSMaP Project: production and validation. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 45:2259–2275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kummerow C, Simpson J, Thiele O, Barnes W, Chang A, Stocker E, Adler RF, Hou A, Kakar R, Wentz F (2000) The status of the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) after two years in orbit. J Appl Meteorol 39:1965–1982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nishiyama K, Endo S, Jinno K, Bertacchi Uvo C, Olsson J, Berndtsson R (2007) Identification of typical synoptic patterns causing heavy rainfall in the rainy season in Japan by a self-organizing map. Atmos Res 83:185–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peñarrocha D, Estrela MJ, Millán M (2002) Classification of daily rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean area with extreme intensity levels: the Valencia region. Int J Climatol 22:677–695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasmussen KL, Houze RA Jr (2012) A flash flooding storm at the steep edge of high terrain: disaster in the Himalayas. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1713–1724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson PJ (2003) Atmospheric circulation and inland flooding in twentieth century North Carolina, USA: implications for climate change impacts? Nat Hazard 29:155–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sang YF, Wang Z, Liu C (2012) What factors are responsible for the Beijing storm? Nat Hazard 65:2399–2400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd JM, Mote TL, Nelson S, McCutcheon S, Knox P, Roden M, Dowd J (2010) An overview of synoptic and mesoscale factors contributing to the disastrous Atlanta flood of 2009. Bull Am Meteor Soc 92:861–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuart N, Grumm R (2009) The use of ensemble and anomaly data to anticipate extreme flood events in the northeastern United States. NWA Digest 33:185–202

    Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Smith JA, Serinaldi F, Ntelekos AA, Schwarz U (2011) Analyses of extreme flooding in Austria over the period 1951–2006. Int J Climatol 32:1178–1192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Toma VE, Kim HM (2011) Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable? Geophys Res Lett 38:1–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is sponsored by the Kyoto University Global COE program “Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable to Extreme Weather Conditions” and “Global Center for Education and Research on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities,” the Postdoctoral fellowship of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (P12055), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24·02055 and the “One Hundred talents Program” of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors wish to acknowledge Prof. Richard H. Grumm for his help about understanding the standardized anomalies. The first author would like to thank China Scholarship Council (CSC) for his PhD scholarships.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Weili Duan

  2. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China

    Weili Duan & Bin He

  3. Center for Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Bin He & Kaoru Takara

  4. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Pingping Luo & Yosuke Yamashiki

  5. AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. EPA, ORD, NCEA, Washington, DC, 20010, USA

    Daniel Nover

  6. Key Lab of Yangtze River Water Environment of Ministry of Education, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

    Wenrui Huang

Authors
  1. Weili Duan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bin He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kaoru Takara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Pingping Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Daniel Nover
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yosuke Yamashiki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Wenrui Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Weili Duan or Bin He.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Duan, W., He, B., Takara, K. et al. Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods, July 11–14, 2012. Nat Hazards 73, 1255–1267 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1134-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1134-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation