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A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina)

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Abstract

During the 1970s, Laguna Mar Chiquita (Argentina) experienced a dramatic hydroclimatic anomaly, with a substantial rise in its level. Precipitations are the dominant driving factor in lake level fluctuations. The present study investigates the potential role of remote forcing through global sea surface temperature (SST) fields in modulating recent hydroclimatic variability in Southeastern South America and especially over the Laguna Mar Chiquita region. Daily precipitation and temperature are extracted from a multi-member LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble of simulations forced by HadISST1 observed time-varying global SST and sea-ice boundary conditions from 1950 to 2005. The various members of the ensemble are only different in their atmospheric initial conditions. Statistical downscaling (SD) is used to adjust precipitation and temperature from LMDz ensemble mean at the station scale over the basin. A coupled basin-lake hydrological model (cpHM) is then using the LMDz-downscaled (LMDz-SD) climate variables as input to simulate the lake behavior. The results indicate that the long-term lake level trend is fairly well depicted by the LMDz-SD-cpHM simulations. The 1970s level rise and high-level conditions are generally well captured in timing and in magnitude when SST-forced AGCM-SD variables are used to drive the cpHM. As the LMDz simulations are forced solely with the observed sea surface conditions, the global SST seems to have an influence on the lake level variations of Laguna Mar Chiquita. As well, this study shows that the AGCM-SD-cpHM model chain is a useful approach for evaluating long-term lake level fluctuations in response to the projected climate changes.

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Acknowledgments

The work presented here was supported by a PhD grant from the French Ministry (Magali Troin), and benefited from funding from the French CNRS-INSU (PNEDC and LEFE-EVE programs, AMANCAY project) and from the French National Research Agency (program VMC, Project ANR-06-VULN-010, ESCARSEL project). This work was also part of the CLARIS-LBP Project (EC-FP7), ECOS-Sud-MINCYT (PA08U02, France–Argentina cooperation), and PIP 112-200801-00808 (CONICET). Mathieu Vrac was partly funded by the GIS REGYNA project as well as the ANR StaRMIP project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNRS, IRD, CEREGE UM34, Aix-Marseille Université, 13545, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Magali Troin, Christine Vallet-Coulomb & Florence Sylvestre

  2. Department of Construction Engineering, École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, 1100 Notre-Dame Street West, Montreal, QC, H3C 1K3, Canada

    Magali Troin & Daniel Caya

  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL) CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Centre d’étude de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Bat. 701, 91191, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France

    Mathieu Vrac

  4. LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD/CNRS/MNHN/UPMC, Sorbonne Université, Tour 45-55, 4 place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 5, France

    Myriam Khodri

  5. CICTERRA-CIGeS, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 1611, X5016GCA, Córdoba, Argentina

    Eduardo Piovano

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  1. Magali Troin
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  2. Mathieu Vrac
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Correspondence to Magali Troin.

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Troin, M., Vrac, M., Khodri, M. et al. A complete hydro-climate model chain to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variability in subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina). Clim Dyn 46, 1783–1798 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0

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