Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation

  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Summary

Rainfall trends in subtropical South America east of the Andes during the period 1960–1999 were studied in connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. In addition, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis were used to look at the connection between rainfall trends and the interannual variability of the low-level atmospheric circulation. South of 22° S, annual rainfall trends were positive everywhere, and statistically significant over part of western subtropical Argentina. Over most of the region, trends resulted mostly from the warm semester (October–March) trends with little contribution from the cold semester (April–September). Under certain conditions, linear precipitation trends of each ENSO phase add up to the total rainfall trend. In northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil and Paraguay, half of the annual rainfall trend came from El Niño phase with a minor contribution from La Niña and the neutral phase. However, in most of subtropical South America, east of the Andes, precipitation trends during the extreme phases of the ENSO constitute only a small part of the trends. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to the monthly SLP fields of the austral warm semester. The mode that advects humid air from the Atlantic Ocean over most of Argentina and Uruguay has grown at the expense of the one that favors the flow from the tropical forest over the eastern part of the continent. South of 30° S, annual rainfall trends took place predominantly during the neutral phase of the ENSO, and were related to the trends of the first two SLP leading modes. On the other hand, the annual trends were negative in the continental part of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), but with contributions from all ENSO phases.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • P Aceituno (1988) ArticleTitleOn the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: Surface Climate Mon Wea Rev 116 505–524 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0505:OTFOTS>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • V Barros E Castañeda M Doyle (2000a) Recent precipitation trends in Southern South America to the east of the Andes: an indication of a mode of climatic variability SeriesTitleSouthern Hemisphere Paleo and Neoclimates Key – Sites, Methods, Data and Models Springer Berlin 381

    Google Scholar 

  • V Barros M González B Liebmann I Camilloni (2000b) ArticleTitleInfluence of the South Atlantic convergence zone and South Atlantic Sea surface temperature on interannual summer rainfall variability in southeastern South America Theor Appl Climatol 67 123–133 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s007040070002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • V Barros GE Silvestri (2002) ArticleTitleThe relationship between sea surface temperature at the subtropical south-central Pacific and precipitation in southeastern South America J Climate 15 251–267 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0251:TRBSST>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • V Barros M Doyle M González I Camilloni R Bejarán RM Caffera (2002) ArticleTitleRevision of the South American monsoon system and climate in subtropical South America south of 20° S Meteorológica 27 33–57

    Google Scholar 

  • Barros V, Doyle M, Camilloni I (2005) Potential impacts of climate change in the Plata basin. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: impact assessment and decision making. IAHS, China, 360 pp

  • H Berbery V Barros (2002) ArticleTitleThe hydrological cycle of the La Plata basin in South America J Hydrometeorol 3 630–645 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0630:THCOTL>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • I Camilloni V Barros (2003) ArticleTitleExtreme discharge events in the Paraná River and their climate forcing J Hydrol 278 94–106 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00133-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DP Casarin VE Kousky (1986) ArticleTitleAnomalies de precipitacao no sul do Brasil e variacoes na circulacoes atmosférica Rev Bras Meteor 1 83–90

    Google Scholar 

  • ME Castañeda V Barros (1994) ArticleTitleLas tendencias de la precipitación en el Cono sur de América al Este de los Andes Meteorológica 19 23–32

    Google Scholar 

  • ME Castañeda V Barros (2001) ArticleTitleTendencias de la precipitación en el oeste de Argentina Meteorológica 26 5–23

    Google Scholar 

  • G Cazes-Boezio AW Robertson CR Mechoso (2003) ArticleTitleSeasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections over South America and relationships with precipitation in Uruguay J Climate 16 1159–1176 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1159:SDOETO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NAC Cressie (1991) Statistics for spatial data John Wiley and Sons New York 900

    Google Scholar 

  • RB Darlington (1990) Regression and linear models McGraw-Hill New York 480

    Google Scholar 

  • A Díaz P Aceituno (2003) ArticleTitleAtmospheric circulation anomalies during episodes of enhanced and reduced convective cloudiness over Uruguay J Climate 16 3171–3185 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3171:ACADEO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ME Doyle VR Barros (2002) ArticleTitleMidsummer low-level circulation and precipitation in subtropical South America and related sea surface temperature anomalies in the South Atlantic J Climate 15 3394–3410 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3394:MLLCAP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MA Gan VB Rao (1991) ArticleTitleSurface cyclogenesis over South America Mon Wea Rev 119 1293–1302 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1293:SCOSA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AW Gandú PL Silva Días (1998) ArticleTitleImpact of tropical heat sources on the South American tropospheric circulation and subsidence J Geophys Res 103 6001–6015 Occurrence Handle10.1029/97JD03114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NO García WM Vargas (1998) ArticleTitleThe temporal climatic variability in the ‘Río de la Plata’ basin displayed by the river discharges Climatic Change 38 359–379 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1005386530866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • RD Garreaud DS Battisti (1999) ArticleTitleInteranual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the S. Hemisphere J Climate 12 2113–2123 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2113:IEAIEL>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JL Genta G Pérez-Iribarren CR Mechoso (1998) ArticleTitleA recent increasing trend in the streamflow of rivers in southeastern South America J Climate 11 2858–2862 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2858:ARITIT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AM Grimm ED de Freitas J Gomes (1998) ArticleTitlePrecipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events J Climate 11 2863–2880 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2863:PAISBA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AM Grimm VR Barros M Doyle (2000) ArticleTitleClimate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events J Climate 13 35–58 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0035:CVISSA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • InstitutionalAuthorNameIPCC (2001) Climate change 2001 SeriesTitleThe scientific basis University Press Cambridge 881

    Google Scholar 

  • E Kalnay M Kanamitsu R Kistler W Collins D Deaven L Gandin M Iredell S Sha G White J Woollen Y Zhu M Chelliah W Ebisuzaki W Higgins J Janowiak KC Mo C Ropelewski J Wang A Leetmaa R Reynolds R Jenne D Joseph (1996) ArticleTitleThe NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77 437–471 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B Liebmann CS Vera LMV Carvalho IA Camilloni MP Hoerling D Allured VR Barros J Báez M Bidegain (2004) ArticleTitleAn observed trend in central South American precipitation J Climate 17 4357–4367 Occurrence Handle10.1175/3205.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NJ Mantua SR Hare Y Zhang JM Wallace RC Francis (1997) ArticleTitleA Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78 1069–1079 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J Minetti W Vargas (1998) ArticleTitleTrends and jumps in the annual precipitation in South America, south of 15° S Atmósfera 11 205–221

    Google Scholar 

  • T Nitta S Yamada (1989) ArticleTitleRecent warming of tropical surface temperatures and its relationship to the Northern Hemispheric circulation J Meteor Soc Jpn 67 375–383

    Google Scholar 

  • J Nogués-Paegle KC Mo (1997) ArticleTitleAlternating wet and dry conditions over South America during summer Mon Wea Rev 125 279–291 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0279:AWADCO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G Pisciottano A Diaz G Cazes CR Mechoso (1994) ArticleTitleEl Niño – Southern Oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay J Climate 7 1286–1302 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1286:ENSOIO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AB Pittock (1980) ArticleTitlePatterns of climatic variation in Argentina and Chile – I. Precipitation, 1931–1960 Mon Wea Rev 108 1347–1361 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1347:POCVIA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • VB Rao K Hada (1990) ArticleTitleCharacteristics of rainfall over Brazil: Annual variations and connections with the Southern Oscillation Theor Appl Climatol 42 81–91 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF00868215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CH Ropelewski MS Halpert (1987) ArticleTitleGlobal and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Mon Wea Rev 115 1606–1626 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CH Ropelewski MS Halpert (1989) ArticleTitlePrecipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation J Climate 2 268–284 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0268:PPAWTH>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B Scian JC Labraga W Reimers O Frumento (2006) ArticleTitleCharacteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation related to extreme monthly rainfall anomalies in the Pampa Region, Argentina, under non-ENSO conditions Theor Appl Climatol 85 89–106 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s00704-005-0182-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M Seluchi CA Saulo M Nicolini P Satyamurti (2003) ArticleTitleThe Northwestern Argentinean low: a study of two typical events Mon Wea Rev 131 2361–2378 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2361:TNALAS>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G Silvestri (2004) ArticleTitleEl Niño signal variability in the precipitation over southeastern South America during austral summer Geophys Res Lett 31 L18206 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2004GL020590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G Silvestri (2005) ArticleTitleComparison between winter precipitation in southeastern South America during each ENSO phase Geophys Res Lett 32 L05709 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2004GL021749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silvestri GE, Vera CS (2003) Antarctic Oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America. Geophys Res Lett 30(21), doi: 10.1029/2003GL018277

  • KE Trenberth (1990) ArticleTitleRecent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere Bull Amer Meteor Soc 74 988–993 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1990)071<0988:ROICCI>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • KE Trenberth (1997) ArticleTitleThe definition of El Niño Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78 2771–2777 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vose RS, Schmoyer RL, Steurer PM, Peterson TC, Heim R, Karl TR, Eischeid J (1992) The Global Historical Climatology Network: long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data. ORNL/CDIAC-53, NDP-041. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

  • M Wang J Paegle (1996) ArticleTitleImpact of analysis uncertainty upon regional atmospheric moisture flux J Geophys Res 101 7291–7303 Occurrence Handle10.1029/95JD02896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Y Zhang JM Wallace D Battisti (1997) ArticleTitleENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93 J Climate 10 1004–1020 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, CIMA (CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    V. R. Barros, M. E. Doyle & I. A. Camilloni

Authors
  1. V. R. Barros
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. E. Doyle
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. I. A. Camilloni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. R. Barros.

Additional information

Correspondence: Vicente R. Barros, CIMA, Pab. II. Ciudad Universitaria, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Barros, V., Doyle, M. & Camilloni, I. Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 93, 19–33 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0329-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0329-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation