Abstract
Spring consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6, indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.
摘要
连阴雨是春季三峡库区地质灾害的重要诱因,预估春季其变化对了解未来三峡库区地质灾害的变化趋势有重要意义。但以往基于全球气候模式的库区连阴雨未来变化预估结果存在相当大的不确定性,这主要与全球模式分辨率较低有关。本文在比较多个全球气候模式模拟效能的基础上,择优使用MIROC6来驱动WRF模式,采取三重嵌套进行动力降尺度,以改进三峡库区连阴雨模拟,减少未来预估的不确定性。结果表明,相对于MIROC6,WRF在日降雨概率分布、逐月演变和降雨持续时间等方面均具有更好的表现,其模拟连阴雨更接近实际观测。故采用WRF,对SSP245和SSP585两种共享社会经济路径下连阴雨的未来趋势进行了降尺度预估。结果显示:库区小到中雨及降雨持续时间将会减少减弱,连阴雨的发生频率减少;但在库区的中西部,单次连阴雨的持续时间、降雨量和降雨强度将明显增多增强。这些结果不同于MIROC6。进一步进行观测诊断分析,发现连阴雨的发生与局地垂直水汽平流关系密切,WRF能够很好模拟局地垂直水汽平流,但MIROC6却不能。因此,相比MIROC6本身,基于WRF三层嵌套降尺度的预估结果更为可信。
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Data Availability Statement CMFD is available at https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/8028b944-daaa-4511-8769-965612652c49/. CN05.1 is available at https://ccrc.iap.ac.cn/resource. The ERA5 reanalysis products are available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/. The outputs of MIROC6 are available at https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/.
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Acknowledgments
NK acknowledges funding from the NFR COMBINED (Grant No. 328935); The BCPU hosted YZ visit to University of Bergen (Trond Mohn Foundation Grant No. BFS2018TMT01). This study is also supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFA0805101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42376250 and 41731177), a China Scholarship Council fellowship and the UTFORSK Partnership Program (CONNECTED UTF-2016-long-term/10030). The authors would like to thank ECMWF, the National Tibetan Plateau Data Centre, the China Meteorological Data Service Centre, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Center for Climate System Research, for providing the datasets and model used in this study.
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Funding Note: Open Access funding provided by University of Bergen (incl Haukeland University Hospital).
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Article Highlights
• Triple-nested WRF downscaling can improve spring simulation of consecutive rainfall events (CREs) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR).
• WRF projects decreased frequency of CREs in the TGR but increases in their duration, intensity and rainfall amount in the central-west TGR.
• The future decreased frequency of CREs is attributed to the weakened upward motion and the decreased relative humidity over the TGR.
This paper is a contribution to the special topic on Ocean, Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Climate: In Remembrance of Professor Yongqi Gao’s Key Contributions.
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Zheng, Y., Li, S., Keenlyside, N. et al. Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1539–1558 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2
Key words
- triple-nested downscaling
- Three Gorges Reservoir area
- consecutive rainfall events
- geological hazards
- projection