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Impact of the time scale of model sensitivity response on coupled model parameter estimation

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Abstract

That a model has sensitivity responses to parameter uncertainties is a key concept in implementing model parameter estimation using filtering theory and methodology. Depending on the nature of associated physics and characteristic variability of the fluid in a coupled system, the response time scales of a model to parameters can be different, from hourly to decadal. Unlike state estimation, where the update frequency is usually linked with observational frequency, the update frequency for parameter estimation must be associated with the time scale of the model sensitivity response to the parameter being estimated. Here, with a simple coupled model, the impact of model sensitivity response time scales on coupled model parameter estimation is studied. The model includes characteristic synoptic to decadal scales by coupling a long-term varying deep ocean with a slow-varying upper ocean forced by a chaotic atmosphere. Results show that, using the update frequency determined by the model sensitivity response time scale, both the reliability and quality of parameter estimation can be improved significantly, and thus the estimated parameters make the model more consistent with the observation. These simple model results provide a guideline for when real observations are used to optimize the parameters in a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization.

摘 要

模式对参数不确定性的敏感性响应是用滤波理论和方法实现模式参数估计的基础. 由于耦合系统中各流体分量不同的物理特性, 耦合模式对于不同参数的响应时间尺度可以从小时到年代纪. 在状态估计中, 状态的更新频率经常与观测频率相关, 而参数的更新频率则与待估参数的模式敏感性响应时间尺度相关. 本文基于一个简单的耦合模式, 对模式敏感性响应时间尺度对耦合模式参数估计的影响进行了深入研究. 该耦合模式将年代纪长期变化的深海与受混沌大气驱使影响而缓慢(季节到年际)变化的上层海洋相联系, 可以反映气候变化的多尺度特征. 研究结果表明, 使用基于模式敏感性响应时间尺度确定的参数更新频率, 可以显著提高参数估计的可靠性和质量, 调整后的参数可以使模式结果与观测更加一致. 上述基于简单耦合模式的研究成果可为在耦合环流模式中使用实际观测来优化模式参数以改善气候分析和预报预测初始化提供参指导.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41676088), the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2016YFC1401800, 2017YFC1404100, 2017YFC1404102), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (HEUCF 041705), and the Foundation of the Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Automation, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, China

    Chang Liu

  2. NOAA GFDL—University of Wisconsin — Madison Joint Visit Program, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA

    Chang Liu

  3. Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266003, China

    Shaoqing Zhang

  4. International Center for Climate and Environment t sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Shan Li

  5. Laboratory for Climate and Ocean—Atmosphere Studies (LaCOAS), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Zhengyu Liu

  6. Center for Climate Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin — Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Zhengyu Liu

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  1. Chang Liu
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Correspondence to Shaoqing Zhang.

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Liu, C., Zhang, S., Li, S. et al. Impact of the time scale of model sensitivity response on coupled model parameter estimation. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1346–1357 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6272-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6272-6

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