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Weather Generator Effectiveness in Capturing Climate Extremes

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Abstract

Weather generators are increasingly used in environmental, water resources, and agricultural applications. Given their potential, it is important that weather generators be evaluated, particularly with respect to their ability to capture extreme events. This study was aimed at evaluating weather generator representation of climate extremes with a focus on LARS-WG applied to three stations in the Western Lake Erie Basin, U.S. Generally, LARS-WG captured the number of days with precipitation greater than 50.8 mm (2 in. and 101.6 mm (4 in), 7-day wet sequences, and wet and dry sequences relatively well. The distribution of 1-day maximum precipitation was also generally captured well based on Q-Q plots, although large deviations were seen at the upper tail at one of the stations. The generator greatly underestimated the number of days per year with maximum temperatures greater than 32.2 °C (90 °F) and overestimated the number of days with temperatures less than 0 °C (32 °F). It also underestimated spring and summer values of one-day maximum temperatures across all stations. Fall and winter values were, however, captured fairly well as were seasonal values of one-day minimum temperatures. Overall, the generator performed relatively well in representing extremes within the basin.

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Acknowledgments

A previous shorter version of the paper has been presented in the 10th World Congress of the EWRA “Panta Rhei” Athens, Greece, 5-9 July, 2017. This work was made possible in part by funding by USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Project No. IND010639R).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, 225 S. University St., West Lafayette, IN, 47907, USA

    Margaret W. Gitau & Sushant Mehan

  2. National Center for Water Quality Research, Heidelberg University, Tiffin, OH, 44883, USA

    Tian Guo

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  1. Margaret W. Gitau
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  2. Sushant Mehan
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  3. Tian Guo
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Correspondence to Margaret W. Gitau.

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Gitau, M.W., Mehan, S. & Guo, T. Weather Generator Effectiveness in Capturing Climate Extremes. Environ. Process. 5 (Suppl 1), 153–165 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-018-0291-x

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