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Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?

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Abstract

In the current scenario, Lake Urmia, one of the vastest hyper saline lakes on the Earth, has been affected by serious environmental degradation. Using different satellite images and observational data, this study investigated the changes in the lake for the period 1970–2020 based on the effects of climate change and several human-induced processes on Lake Urmia, such as population growth, excessive dam construction, low irrigation water use efficiency, poor water resources management, increased sediment flow into the lake, and lack of political and legal frameworks. The results indicated that between 1970 and 1997, the process of change in Lake Urmia was slow; however; the shrinkage was faster between 1998 and 2018, with about 30.00% of the lake area disappearing. As per the findings, anthropogenic factors had a much greater impact on Lake Urmia than climate change and prolonged drought; the mismanagement of water consumption in the agricultural sector and surface and underground water withdrawals in the basin have resulted in a sharp decrease in the lake’s surface. These challenges have serious implications for water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin. Therefore, we provided a comprehensive overview of anthropogenic factors on the changes in Lake Urmia along with existing opportunities for better water resources management in Lake Urmia Basin. This study serves as a guideline framework for climate scientists and hydrologists in order to assess the effects of different factors on lake water resources and for decision-makers to formulate strategies and plans according to the management task.

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  1. Department of Social Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, 81746-73441, Iran

    Mehri Shams Ghahfarokhi

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland

    Sogol Moradian

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Shams Ghahfarokhi, M., Moradian, S. Investigating the causes of Lake Urmia shrinkage: climate change or anthropogenic factors?. J. Arid Land 15, 424–438 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-023-0054-z

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