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Simulation of centennial-scale drought events over eastern China during the past 1500 years

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Abstract

The characteristics and causes of centennial-scale drought events over eastern China during the past 1500 years were explored based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results show that centennial- scale drought events over eastern China occurred during the periods of 622–735 (Drought period 1, D1) and 1420–1516 (Drought period 2, D2) over the past 1500 years, which is comparable with climate proxy data. In D1, the drought center occurred in northern China and the Yangtze River valley; however, in southern China, precipitation was much more than usual. In D2, decreased precipitation was found across almost the whole region of eastern China. The direct cause of these two drought events was the weakened East Asian summer monsoon, and the specific process was closely linked to the air–sea interaction of the Indo-Pacific Ocean. In D1, regions of maximum cooling were observed over the western Pacific, which may have led to anomalous subsidence, weakening the Walker circulation, and reducing the northward transport of water vapor. Additionally, upward motion occurred over southern China, strengthening convection and increasing precipitation. In D2, owing to the decrease in the SST, subsidence dominated the North Indian Ocean, blocking the low-level cross-equatorial flow, enhancing the tropical westerly anomalies, and reducing the northward transport of moisture. Additionally, descending motion appeared in eastern China, subsequently decreasing the precipitation over the whole region of eastern China. The anomalous cooling of the Indo-Pacific Ocean SST may have been caused by the persistently low solar irradiation in D1; whereas, in D2, this characteristic may have been influenced not only by persistently low solar irradiation, but frequent volcanic eruptions too.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Weiyi Sun, Jian Liu & Zhiyuan Wang

  2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Jian Liu

  3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Jian Liu

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  1. Weiyi Sun
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Correspondence to Jian Liu.

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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600401), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (14KJA170002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371209, 41420104002, and 41501210), and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (164320H116).

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Sun, W., Liu, J. & Wang, Z. Simulation of centennial-scale drought events over eastern China during the past 1500 years. J Meteorol Res 31, 17–27 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6090-x

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