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A GIS-based probabilistic analysis model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in mountainous areas

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Abstract

Landslides are serious natural disasters frequently occurring in the mountainous areas along the Sichuan–Tibet railway. Landslides are often induced by rainfall and greatly threaten people’s lives and property. Via the use of GIS technology, a probabilistic analysis model was proposed for rainfall-induced shallow landslides along the above route. The process of the proposed probabilistic analysis model could be divided into three parts: (i) an infiltration hydrogeological model, (ii) a slope stability model, and (iii) probabilistic analysis. In this model, soil cohesion and internal friction angle were regarded as random parameters. The Green–Ampt model was used to dynamically describe the soil infiltration process during rainfall. Combined with the infinite slope stability model, the failure probability in the study area was analyzed. The model was applied to simulate the Bayi catchment landslide event of August 18, 2010, to evaluate its reliability. Through comparison of the simulation results to landslide occurrence locations, it was determined that the model achieves a satisfactory prediction performance. In addition, compared to deterministic analysis methods and the r.slope model, the proposed probabilistic analysis model achieved a satisfactory evaluation performance. The presented physics-based probabilistic analysis model could provide important theoretical support for hazard prevention in regard to rainfall-induced shallow landslides in mountainous areas.

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Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U20A20111; 41977229) and the Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Innovation Research Team Project (2020JDTD0006). Critical comments by the anonymous reviewers greatly improved the initial manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, People’s Republic of China

    Cong-jiang Li, Xing-guo Yang & Jia-wen Zhou

  2. Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention in Hilly Mountains of Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Fujian Geological Engineering Survey Institute, Fuzhou, 350002, People’s Republic of China

    Chao-xu Guo

  3. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chengdu, 610064, People’s Republic of China

    Chao-xu Guo

  4. College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, People’s Republic of China

    Hai-bo Li

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  1. Cong-jiang Li
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Correspondence to Jia-wen Zhou.

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Li, Cj., Guo, Cx., Yang, Xg. et al. A GIS-based probabilistic analysis model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in mountainous areas. Environ Earth Sci 81, 432 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10562-y

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