Abstract
Using longitudinal survey data from northern Ethiopia collected over 18 months, this study shows that conclusions about household food security are highly sensitive to measurement decisions. Especially important are 1) decisions about which food security indicators and cut-offs are chosen, and 2) whether analysis focuses on food security status at a given point in time or food security resilience over time. We define resilience as the probability that a household is truly above a chosen food security cut-off, given its underlying assets, demographic characteristics, and past food security status. Our study finds that different factors determine food security status and food security resilience. We also find that the drivers of resilience vary depending on whether food security is measured by Food Consumption Score (FCS) or the reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). Literacy and livestock holdings are associated with both FCS status and FCS resilience, and the latter is also predicted by access to safe water and sanitation, the dependency ratio, and debt. In contrast, only previous rCSI scores predict current rCSI status, while marital status, literacy, livestock, and other forces matter for determining rCSI resilience. We also find that conclusions about food security resilience are sensitive to the cut-offs chosen to signify a food secure state.
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Notes
Religion was included for its potential effect on food preferences, especially fasting practices. The second and third survey rounds overlapped partially with Lent, during which Orthodox Christians do not consume meat, milk, or eggs. We investigated the possible impact of fasting on food security outcomes during these rounds, but found that the round-by-round trends for meat, milk, and egg consumption by Christians approximated the trajectories of other food groups.
Tropical Livestock Units are calculated using the following weights: cow or oxen = 0.7; donkey = 0.5; goat or sheep = 0.1; poultry = 0.01.
We use kebele dummies, instead of livelihood zone dummies, to control for observed differences in geographical characteristics (especially altitude and market access) across kebeles in the same woreda.
The two-parameter gamma distribution is more flexible than a normal distribution and is non-negative, which is convenient for well-being distributions. For further discussion of the selection of distributions, see Cissé and Barrett (2018).
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and additional funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This support spanned the period from 2010 to 2013 and supported the field data collection. The field teams that collected data in four rounds over a two-year period included Ataklti Techane, Bereket Gebre Medhin, Fisseha Gebre Tensae, Selam Yirga, Martha Tekle, Michael Gebre Hiwot, Kidane Hintsa, Lemlem Fitsum, Samson Hadgu, Gebresselassie Hailu, Haile Tewelde, Dawit Gebre Her, and Ataklti Haile; our thanks to all for their hard work. Special thanks to Julia Van Horn for editorial assistance. We are solely responsible for any errors in the analysis.
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Vaitla, B., Cissé, J.D., Upton, J. et al. How the choice of food security indicators affects the assessment of resilience—an example from northern Ethiopia. Food Sec. 12, 137–150 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00989-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00989-w