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Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological disasters affecting rice, using multi-indices, in Jiangsu province, Southeast China

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Abstract

With the increasing risk of people and economies being subject to meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyse the spatio-temporal variation of these disasters. In this paper, the possible impacts of meteorological disasters on rice yields in Jiangsu Province, southeast China was studied. A total of 17 rice meteorological disaster indices (RMDI) during 1961–2012 was calculated and analyzed. The spatial distribution of RMDI indicated that south Jiangsu should be classified as a high-intensity zone for heat stress, while north Jiangsu should be classified as a high-intensity zone for precipitation extremes and chilling injury. Changing trends of RMDI were detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Precipitation extremes and heat stress indices presented increasing trends, while the chilling injury indices showed decreasing trends. Correlation analysis between rice yield and RMDI with the first difference method and climate-induced yield method showed that precipitation extremes had more dramatic negative effects than the other two types of meteorological disaster. Principal components analysis provided additional information about the regional differences of changes in meteorological disasters. Jiangsu could be divided into three regions (south, middle, and north) with different and changing patterns for RMDI. Also the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation had significant influences on these changes. These findings could provide a scientific basis for the prevention or reduction of rice meteorological disasters in Jiangsu Province.

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Notes

  1. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/. (August 1, 2016)

  2. http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=43&WCHID=5. (August 1, 2016)

  3. http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/indices_def.shtml. (August 1, 2016)

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Acknowledgments

This paper was mainly supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) (Grant NO. GYHY201506001-6), Natural Science Foundation for Higher Education Institutions in Jiangsu Province, China (Grant NO. 16KJB170008), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant NOs. 41375006, 31300420 and 41605042), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant NO. BK20130987, BK20151525), Public welfare projects “key technology and demonstration for the vegetation recovery and reconstruction in open-pit mines” (NO. 201504406).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang

  2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yadong Lei

  3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Fangmin Zhang & Zhenghua Hu

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  1. Jin Huang
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  2. Yadong Lei
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  3. Fangmin Zhang
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  4. Zhenghua Hu
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Correspondence to Zhenghua Hu.

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Huang, J., Lei, Y., Zhang, F. et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological disasters affecting rice, using multi-indices, in Jiangsu province, Southeast China. Food Sec. 9, 661–672 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0689-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0689-8

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