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Expanding the boundaries of agricultural development

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Abstract

The challenges of reducing global hunger and poverty are different today than they were 30 years ago. Current challenges include price volatility associated with increased integration of food, energy, and finance markets; the steady progression of climate change; poorly defined land institutions; and a failure to break vicious cycles of malnutrition and infectious disease. Farmland speculation is occurring globally—often at odds with rural poverty alleviation—and food insecurity remains a pressing issue with the estimated number of chronically malnourished people hovering around one billion. Given these patterns, food and agriculture are becoming increasingly ingrained in international security and policy discussions. This paper explores several ways in which the traditional field of agricultural development needs to expand to address the broader issues of international security and human welfare. It focuses on five key interrelated issues: the macroeconomic and energy contexts of agricultural development; climate change; deforestation, land access, and land markets; farming systems and technology for the ultra-poor; and food-health linkages with a specific focus on infectious disease. Recommendations for investments in capacity building, revised curricula, and development projects are made on the basis of evidence presented for each issue. It is clear that academic programs, government agencies, development and aid organizations, and foundations need to dismantle the walls between disciplinary and programmatic fields, and to find new, innovative ways to reach real-world solutions.

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Notes

  1. There was a six-fold increase in the number of times the term “food security” appeared in the New York Times in 2010 (January 1 to November 30, 2010) versus the number in 2005 (Google search). The definition of food security used here comes from the World Food Summit in 1996 and includes four components: food availability, food accessibility, food utilization, and food system stability (FAO 1996, 2010a).

  2. The context of the comment was specifically on the regulation of global food prices versus production incentives for global agriculture, with France now leading the G20. See http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/8712316/asians-see-frances-g20-food-push-as-part-of-solution/ Accessed 18 March 2011.

  3. This calculations of food insecure people does not account for price and wage feedbacks that would reduce the overall number (Mason et al. 2011).

  4. The coefficients of variation (in percent) for rice, wheat, maize, and petroleum for period 2000–2009 were 49, 32, 29, and 46, respectively—approximately the same as the CVs for the volatile decade of the 1970s and much higher than those for the 1980s and 1990s (Naylor and Falcon 2010).

  5. The bulk of global production is comprised of ethanol, and the U.S. and Brazil are the largest producers of maize- and sugar-based ethanol, respectively, accounting for 54% and 35% of total ethanol output in 2009 (Shrank 2010). The rising U.S. role has been linked to the substitution of ethanol for methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) as a gasoline additive following 2005 environmental regulations to phase out MTBE. It has also been linked to renewable fuel mandates, blender subsidies, and import tariffs on ethanol, all designed to encourage renewable fuels production (Naylor et al. 2007; Naylor and Falcon 2008; USDA 2010). In October 2010 the blending mandate was increased to 15% (E15) on a phase-in basis, further strengthening the U.S. ethanol industry (U.S. Department of Energy 2010).

  6. A general principle in food economics is “Engel’s Law,” which shows that the income elasticity for food in the aggregate is less than one and declines as income grows (Timmer et al. 1983).

  7. The 2010 Renewable Fuels Standard and the Renewable Fuels Reinvestment Act 2010 were passed as part of the December tax bill; they extend the support policies for biofuels set forth in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (Abbott 2010).

  8. This estimate came from President Putin’s August 4, 2010 speech in response to the crisis (Council on Foreign Relations 2010).

  9. Wheat production dropped in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine by an estimated 27%, 19%, and 35%, respectively, from a year earlier (USDA 2010). The closing futures price for wheat in Chicago rose from $4.97/bu on June 25, 2010 to $7.55/bu on August 4th, an increase of 52% (Marketwatch 2010).

  10. Studies have demonstrated cereal yield losses of 2 to 16% for every 1°C increase in seasonal temperature (e.g., Peng et al. 2004; Lobell et al. 2008). In general, prolonged periods of daily high temperatures around 30–32°C (depending on the crop, cultivar, and production system) during crop reproduction and flowering are deleterious to grain and legume yields. Extreme temperatures of ∼35°C and higher for much shorter periods of time at critical stages of development can also be lethal to crops. Further references on these points can be found in Battisti and Naylor 2009, supplemental material.

  11. See note 9.

  12. It is worth noting that U.S. military and security interests have commissioned reports on national security and climate, which highlight global food security and food shortages as one area of potential national security concerns. See Campbell et al. (2007) and CNA Corporation (2007).

  13. This point is argued in greater detail in The Economist (2010).

  14. The latter is particularly important for regions where there is more scientific consensus on future precipitation patterns given the expected change in temperature. Lobell et al. (2011) use data from field trials in Africa to show that maize yields decline by 1% for each degree day that the crop spends above 30°C if the plants receive sufficient water, and by 1.7% for each degree day that the crop spends above 30°C under drought conditions.

  15. For example, see The World Bank (2010a).

  16. For more details on these activities, see Bänziger et al. 2006; http://www.croptrust.org/; and http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTSDNET/0,,contentMDK:22842518~menuPK:64885113~pagePK:7278667~piPK:64911824~theSitePK:5929282,00.html; http://www.aatf-africa.org/wema.

  17. Increasing attention is being paid to the issue of food production and climate mitigation by international science and policy communities. See for example PNAS (2010) and FAO (2009).

  18. The numbers in this section were calculated from FAOSTAT data (FAOSTAT 2010).

  19. Indonesia and Malaysia account for over 85% of the global market for palm oil, followed by Nigeria (FAOSTAT 2011). The province of Papua is the former Irian Jaya and contains some of the country’s largest tracks of untouched tropical rainforests.

  20. Hunt (2010) reports that in Kalimantan oil palm permits have been issued for 1.7 million ha in recent years—including 0.5 million ha of peatland with high carbon content—and that expansion is likely to continue at over 0.5 million ha per year. Oil palm production growth has been largely driven by area expansion throughout the world. Between 1995 and 2005, area expansion accounted for 68% of production growth worldwide, 86% in Africa, and 92% in Asia (FAOSTAT 2011).

  21. By comparison, the American auto industry’s average contribution to GDP over the past 50 years was 3.7% (Norris 2007; Stites 2010).

  22. How the $1 billion will be used to compensate government agencies and officials, oil palm companies, smallholders growing oil palm, and people employed in the oil palm production, processing, and distribution sectors has yet to be determined but will greatly influence the environmental and equity outcomes of the agreement (Hunt 2010).

  23. The concessions often take place on customary land; for example, large-scale transmigration programs during the Suharto regime in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the occupation of locally inhabited lands for the purpose of maximizing national benefits through agricultural development (Colchester et al. 2006). Ethnic violence associated with transmigration policies has been serious in some cases. In 1996–7 hundreds of people were killed in the Dyak-Madurese conflict, causing hundreds of thousands of transmigrants to flee the area Ploughshares (2002).

  24. Timber harvesting is illegal in many of these regions but occurs under the guise of agricultural development. The Indonesian government does not enforce a rule of “use it or lose it” after the lands have been cleared. An alternative would be to convert degraded lands to oil palm, but the definition of degraded lands and the land title claims on such lands remain contentious (Fairhurst and McLaughlin 2009).

  25. The ultra-poor is defined as those living under the classic poverty line of $1/day, revised during the recent price period to be $1.25/day (Ravallion et al. 2007).

  26. For example, data from the FAO AQUASTAT database show that the Sudano-Sahel region uses only 35% of its internal renewable water resources (Frenken 2005).

  27. Meinzen-Dick (2007) shows that irrigation investments are site specific and that there is not a single model that suits all situations.

  28. Lobell et al. (2008, 2011) show that different crops have different heat and drought tolerances, and that the impacts of increased heat on yields are accentuated under drought conditions. Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding future climate outcomes, diversifying crops with a range of abiotic tolerances can thus help smooth the risk.

  29. It is estimated that 70% of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, and 60% globally, are women (Negin et al. 2009; Women Thrive Worldwide 2009).

  30. This project is a collaborative effort by ICRISAT, the Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF), and a local cooperative (l’Association pour le Developpment Economique, Sociale, Culturel et l’Autopromotion, or ADESCA-ONG). The project design, technology, institutional environment, and outcomes are discussed fully in Burney et al. (2010, 2011). An evaluation of the project was performed by the Program on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University.

  31. The system uses high-quality, long-lifetime pressure-regulated drip irrigation lines as opposed to cheaper, shorter-lifetime alternatives.

  32. A half-hectare surface irrigation system costs roughly $18,000 to install, or $425 per 120 m2 plot, and requires annual expenses of $5750 ($143.75 per plot) in inputs, labor, and support of technicians and extension services.

  33. This body of work is large but can be illustrated by papers and references in Arimond and Ruel (2004), Smith et al. (2006), and The Lancet (2008).

  34. The famine was caused by many factors, including the collapse of the Soviet Union, poor resource and agricultural management, a series of natural disasters affecting food productivity, deteriorating infrastructure and distribution, and perhaps most important, a repressive government that prevented information about the famine being made public and prohibited trade and aid from ameliorating the problem. In 1992, the North Korean government launched the “Let’s Eat Two Meals Per Day Campaign” in an attempt to cut down food consumption (Goodkind and West 2001; French 2002). No one really knows the extent of deaths from the famine because reporting was so poor; estimates range from 660 thousand to over 3 million (Smith 2004).

  35. North Korea ranks in the world’s top 10 countries in terms of TB burden (Perry 2011). On a global scale, the incidence of tuberculosis was 139 cases per 100,000 people, and 9.4 million people were newly diagnosed with the disease in 2008. Of the total cases, roughly 15% were HIV-positive, demonstrating the strong link between HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In 2008, an estimated 1.8 million people died from TB, half of whom were living with HIV (United Nations 2010).

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Acknowledgements

The author thanks Walter Falcon, Sandra Batie, David Battisti, Brooks Browne, Jennifer Burney, Thom Jayne, David Lobell, Gordon Nelson, Sharon Perry, Gary Schoolnik, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful input and comments on the manuscript, and Katherine Niemer Johnson for editing support. The work was funded through Senior Fellow endowment funds provided by Julie Wrigley and Allison and Geoff Rusack, and it was presented at the 25th anniversary celebration of Winrock International on December 9, 2010.

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  1. Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, 408E Encina Hall, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA

    Rosamond Naylor

  2. Environmental Earth Systems Science, Stanford University, The Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 473 Via Ortega, Office 363, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA

    Rosamond Naylor

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Naylor, R. Expanding the boundaries of agricultural development. Food Sec. 3, 233–251 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0123-6

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