Abstract
Previous studies showed that the climatic processes drive the streamflow of the inland river in Northwest China. However, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the climatic-hydrological processes in the ungauged mountainous basins because of the scarce data. This research developed an integrated approach for multi-temporal scale modeling the climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China by combining downscaling method (DM), backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and wavelet regression (WR). To validate the approach, we also simulated the climatic-hydrological processes at different temporal scales in a typical data-scarce mountain basin, the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. The main results are as follows: (i) the streamflow is related with regional climatic change as well as atmosphere-ocean variability, (ii) the BPANN model well simulated the nonlinear relationship between the streamflow and temperature and precipitation at the monthly temporal scale, and (iii) although the annual runoff (AR) appears to have fluctuations, there are significant correlations among AR, annual average temperature (AAT), annual precipitation (AP), and oscillation indices, which can be simulated by equations of WR at different temporal scales of years.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Thompson WL (2000) Null hypothesis testing: problems, prevalence, and an alternative. J Wildl Manag 64(4):912–923
Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York
Cannon AJ, McKendry IG (2002) A graphical sensitivity analysis for statistical climate models: application to Indian monsoon rainfall prediction by artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression models. Int J Climatol 22(13):1687–1708
Chen J, Kumar P (2004) A modeling study of the ENSO influence on the terrestrial energy profile in North America. J Clim 17(8):1657–1670
Chen YN, Xu ZX (2005) Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Sci China Earth Sci 48(1):65–73
Chen YN, Takeuchi K, Xu CC, Chen YP, Xu ZX (2006) Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China. Hydrol Process 20(10):2207–2216
Chen YN, Xu CC, Hao XM, Li WH, Chen YP, Zhu CG, Ye ZX (2009) Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China. Quatern Int 20(1):53–61
Chen YN, Xu C, Chen YP, Liu YB, Li WH (2013) Progress, challenges and prospects of eco-hydrological studies in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, China. Environ Manag 51(1):138–153
Georgakakos KP, Graham NE, Modrick TM, Murphy MJ Jr, Shamir E, Spencer CR, Sperfslage JA (2014) Evaluation of real-time hydrometeorological ensemble prediction on hydrologic scales in Northern California. J Hydrol 519:2978–3000
Hao XM, Chen YN, Xu CC, Li WH (2008) Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the last fifty years. Water Resour Manag 22(9):1159–1171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4
Loukas A, Vasiliades L (2014) Streamflow simulation methods for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14(7):1641–1661
Perdomo A, Hussain O (2011) A multisystem climate change adaptation approach for water sustainability in regional Australia. Int J Global Warm 3(1/2):39–54. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2011.038368
Shao QX, Wong H, Li M, Ip WC (2009) Streamflow forecasting using functional-coefficient time series model with periodic variation. J Hydrol 368(1–4):88–95
Shi YF, Shen YP, Kang ES, Li DL, Ding YJ, Zhang GW, Hu RJ (2007) Recent and future climate change in Northwest China. Clim Chang 80(3–4):379–393
Wang J, Li H, Hao X (2010) Responses of snowmelt runoff to climatic change in an inland river basin, Northwestern China, over the past 50 years. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14(10):1979–1987. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1979-2010
Wang C, Xu JH, Chen YN, Bai L, Chen Z (2018) A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin. Clim Dyn 50(7–8):2829–2844
Wang XL, Sun L, Zhang YQ, Luo Y (2016) Rationalization of altitudinal precipitation profiles in a data-scarce glacierized watershed simulation in the Karakoram. Water 8(5):186
Wu Z, Huang NE (2009) Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Adv Adapt Data Anal 1(1):1–41
Xu JH (2002) Mathematical methods in contemporary geography. Higher Education, Beijing, pp 37–105 (in Chinese)
Xu JH, Lu Y, Su FL, Ai NS (2004) R/S and wavelet analysis on the evolutionary process of regional economic disparity in China during the past 50 years. Chinese Geogr Sci 14(3):193–201
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Dong S (2008a) Long-term trend and fractal of annual runoff process in mainstream of Tarim River. Chin Geogr Sci 18(1):77–84
Xu JH, Chen YN, Ji MH, Lu F (2008b) Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River, Xinjiang, China: a multiple time-scale analysis. Chin Geogr Sci 18(4):331–339
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Ji MH, Dong S (2009a) The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River. J Geogr Sci 19(1):25–35
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Ji MH, Dong S, Hong YL (2009b) Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959-2006. Chin Geogr Sci 19(4):306–313
Xu JH, Li WH, Ji MH, Lu F, Dong S (2010) A comprehensive approach to characterization of the nonlinearity of runoff in the headwaters of the Tarim River, Western China. Hydrol Process 24(2):136–146
Xu JH, Chen YN, Lu F, Li WH, Zhang LJ, Hong YL (2011a) The nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate change in the Aksu River, Western China. Int J Climatol 31(5):687–695
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Yang Y, Hong YL (2011b) An integrated statistical approach to identify the nonlinear trend of runoff in the Hotan River and its relation with climatic factors. Stoch Env Res Risk A 25(2):223–233
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Nie Q, Hong YL, Yang Y (2013a) The nonlinear hydro-climatic process in the Yarkand River, Northwestern China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27(2):389–399
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Peng PY, Yang Y, Song CN, Wei CM, Hong YL (2013b) Combining BPANN and wavelet analysis to simulate hydro-climatic processes—a case study of the Kaidu River, North-West China. Front Earth Sci 7(2):227–237
Xu JH, Chen YN, Li WH, Nie Q, Song C, Wei CM (2014) Integrating wavelet analysis and BPANN to simulate the annual runoff with regional climate change: a case study of Yarkand River, Northwest China. Water Resour Manag 28(9):2523–2537
Xu JH, Chen YN, Bai L, Xu YW (2016) A hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff of the Kaidu River in Northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 20(4):1447–1457
Xu JH (2018) Wavelet regression: an approach for undertaking multi-time scale analyses of hydro-climate relationships. Methods X 5:561–568
Zhang Q, Xu CY, Tao H, Jiang T, Chen D (2010) Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River Basin, China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 24(3):349–358
Zhu JW, Zhou LA, Huang SZ (2018) A hybrid drought index combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural information based on the entropy weight theory. Arab J Geosci 11(5):91
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630859), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19030204), and the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory, Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. G2014-02-07).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xu, J., Wang, C., Li, W. et al. Multi-temporal scale modeling on climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China. Arab J Geosci 11, 423 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3784-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3784-z