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An Appraisal of Biomarker-Based Risk-Scoring Models in Chronic Heart Failure: Which One Is Best?

  • Biomarkers of Heart Failure (J. Grodin & W.H.W. Tang, Section Editors)
  • Published:
Current Heart Failure Reports Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose of Review

While prediction models incorporating biomarkers are used in heart failure, these have shown wide-ranging discrimination and calibration. This review will discuss externally validated biomarker-based risk models in chronic heart failure patients assessing their quality and relevance to clinical practice.

Recent Findings

Biomarkers may help in determining prognosis in chronic heart failure patients as they reflect early pathologic processes, even before symptoms or worsening disease. We present the characteristics and describe the performance of 10 externally validated prediction models including at least one biomarker among their predictive factors. Very few models report adequate discrimination and calibration. Some studies evaluated the additional predictive value of adding a biomarker to a model. However, these have not been routinely assessed in subsequent validation studies.

Summary

New and existing prediction models should include biomarkers, which improve model performance. Ongoing research is needed to assess the performance of models in contemporary patients.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Heart Failure and Transplant Program, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    Barbara S. Doumouras & Ana C. Alba

  2. Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre and Joint Department of Medical Imaging, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

    Douglas S. Lee

  3. University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Wayne C. Levy

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  1. Barbara S. Doumouras
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Correspondence to Barbara S. Doumouras.

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Conflict of Interest

Barbara S. Doumouras, Douglas S. Lee, and Ana C. Alba declare no conflicts of interest.

Wayne C. Levy reports grants and personal fees from Novartis, Inc., personal fees from GE Healthcare, personal fees from EBR Systems, Inc., grants from Amgen, grants from Resmed, personal fees from CardioMems (Abbott), personal fees from Biotronik, outside the submitted work; and The University of Washington has received licensing fees for the Seattle Heart Failure Model from various healthcare related entities for use in clinical trials and in patient EHRs. He has not received any royalties.

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This article is part of the Topical Collection on Biomarkers of Heart Failure

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Doumouras, B.S., Lee, D.S., Levy, W.C. et al. An Appraisal of Biomarker-Based Risk-Scoring Models in Chronic Heart Failure: Which One Is Best?. Curr Heart Fail Rep 15, 24–36 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11897-018-0375-y

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