Abstract
Study 1 retrospectively analyzed neuropsychological and psychoeducational tests given to N=220 first graders, with follow-up assessments in third and eighth grade. Four predictor constructs were derived: (1) Phonemic Awareness, (2) Picture Vocabulary, (3) Rapid Naming, and (4) Single Word Reading. Together, these accounted for 88%, 76%, 69%, and 69% of the variance, respectively, in first, third, and eighth grade Woodcock Johnson Broad Reading and eighth grade Gates-MacGinitie. When Single Word Reading was excluded from the predictors, the remaining predictors still accounted for 71%, 65%, 61%, and 65% of variance in the respective outcomes. Secondary analyses of risk of low outcome showed sensitivities/specificities of 93.0/91.0, and 86.4/84.9, respectively, for predicting which students would be in the bottom 15% and 30% of actual first grade WJBR. Sensitivities/specificities were 84.8/83.3 and 80.2/81.3, respectively, for predicting the bottom 15% and 30% of actual third grade WJBR outcomes; eighth grade outcomes had sensitivities/specificities of 80.0/80.0 and 85.7/83.1, respectively, for the bottom 15% and 30% of actual eighth grade WJBR scores. Study 2 cross-validated the concurrent predictive validities in an N=500 geographically diverse sample of late kindergartners through third graders, whose ethnic and racial composition closely approximated the national early elementary school population. New tests of the same four predictor domains were used, together taking only 15 minutes to administer by teachers; the new Woodcock-Johnson III Broad Reading standard score was the concurrent criterion, whose testers were blind to the predictor results. This cross-validation showed 86% of the variance accounted for, using the same regression weights as used in Study 1. With these weights, sensitivity/specificity values for the 15% and 30% thresholds were, respectively, 91.3/88.0 and 94.1/89.1. These validities and accuracies are stronger than others reported for similar intervals in the literature.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Badian, N. A. (1994). Preschool prediction: Orthographic and phonological skills, and reading. Annals of Dyslexia, 44, 3–25.
Badian, N. A. (1995). Predicting reading ability over the long term: The changing roles of letter naming, phonological awareness, and orthographic processing. Annals of Dyslexia, 45, 79–96.
Catts, H. W., Fey, M. E., Zhang, S., & Tomblin, J. B. (2001). Estimating risk for future reading difficulties in kindergarten children: A research based model and its clinical implications. Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools, 31, 38–50.
Cohen, J. (1969). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. New York: Academic Press.
Committee on Children with Disabilities, American Academy of Pediatrics. (2001). Developmental surveillance and screening of infants and young children. Pediatrics, 108, 192–195.
Denckla, M., & Rudel, R. G. (1976). Rapid automatized naming (RAN): Dyslexia differentiated from other learning disabilities. Neuropsychologia, 14, 471–479.
Dunn, L. M., & Dunn, L. M. (1981). Peabody picture vocabulary test-revised. Circle Pines, MN: American Guidance Service, Inc.
Elbro, C., Borstrøm, I., & Petersen, D. K. (1998). Predicting dyslexia from kindergarten: The importance of distinctiveness of phonological representations of lexical items. Reading Research Quarterly, 33, 36–60.
Felton, R. H., & Wood, F. B. (1989). Cognitive deficits in reading disability and attention deficit disorder. Journal of Learning Disabilities, 22, 3–13.
Flynn, J. M. (2000). From identification to intervention: Improving kindergarten screening for risk of reading failure. In N. A. Badian (Ed.), Prediction and prevention of reading failure (pp. 133–152). Baltimore: York Press.
Foorman, B. R., Fletcher, J. M., & Francis, D. J. (1998). Texas primary reading inventory. Texas Education Agency and University of Texas System. www.tpri.org
Grigorenko, E. L., Wood, F. B., Meyer, M. S., Hart, L. A., Speed, W. C., Shuster, A., et al. (1997). Susceptibility loci for distinct components of developmental dyslexia on chromosomes 6 and 15. American Journal of Medical Genetics (Neuropsychiatric Genetics), 60, 27–39.
Grigorenko, E. L., Wood, F. B., Meyer, M. S., & Pauls, D. L. (2000). The chromosome 6p influences on different dyslexia-related cognitive processes: Further confirmation. American Journal of Human Genetics, 66, 715–723.
Grigorenko, E. L., Wood, F. B., Meyer, M. S., Pauls, J. E. D., Hart, L. A., & Pauls, D. L. (2001). Linkage studies suggest a possible locus for developmental dyslexia near the Rh region on chromosome 1. American Journal of Medical Genetics (Neuropsychiatric Genetics), 105(1), 120–129.
Kaplan, B. J., Goodglass, H., & Weintraub, S. (1983). Boston naming test. Baltimore: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Lindamood, C. H., & Lindamood, P. C. (1979). Lindamood auditory conceptualization test. Boston: Teaching Resources Corporation.
MacGinitie, R. K. (1978). Gates-MacGinitie reading tests. Chicago: Riverside Publishing Company.
McCardle, P., Scarborough, H. S., & Catts, H. W. (2001). Predicting, explaining, and preventing children’s reading difficulties. Learning Disabilities Research and Practice, 16(4), 230–239.
Meehl, P. E., & Rosen, A. (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns, or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 3, 195–216.
Meyer, M. S., Wood, F. B., Hart, L. A., & Felton, R. H. (1998). Selective predictive value of rapid automatized naming within poor readers. Journal of Learning Disabilities, 31, 106–117.
No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. (P.L. 107–110 [20 U.S.C. 7801].)
Richardson, E., & DiBenedetto, B. (1985). Decoding skills test. Parkton, MD: York Press.
Scarborough, H. S. (1989). Prediction of reading disability from familial and individual differences. Journal of Educational Psychology, 81, 101–108.
Scarborough, H. (1998). Predicting the future achievement of second grades with reading disabilities: Contributions of phonemic awareness, verbal memory, rapid naming, and IQ. Annals of Dyslexia, 68, 115–136.
Sénéchal, M., LeFevre, J.-A., Thomas, E. M., & Daley, K. E. (1998). Differential effects of home literacy experiences on the development of oral and written language. Reading Research Quarterly, 33, 96–116.
Shaw, R., & Shaw, D. (2002). DIBELS oral reading fluency-based indicators of third grade reading skills for Colorado state assessment program (CSAP) (Technical Report). Eugene, OR: University of Oregon.
Snow, C. E., Burns, M. S., & Griffin, P. (1998). Preventing reading difficulties in young children. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Stanovich, K. E., Cunningham, A. E., & Cramer, B. B. (1984). Assessing phonological awareness in kindergarten children: Issues of task comparability. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 38, 175–190.
Torgesen, J. K. (1998). Catch them before they fall. Identification and assessment to prevent reading failure in young children. American Educator, 22(1, 2), 32–39.
Torgesen, J. K. (2004). Preventing early reading failure—and its devastating downward spiral. American Educator, 28(3), 6–19, 12–13, 17–19, & 45–47.
Wolf, M. (1991). Letter naming, reading and the contribution of the cognitive neurosciences. Reading Research Quarterly, 123–141.
Wolf, M., & Bowers, P. (1999). The “Double-Deficit Hypothesis” for the developmental dyslexias. Journal of Educational Psychology, 91(3), 1–24.
Wood, F., & Grigorenko, E. (2001). Emerging issues in the genetics of dyslexia: A methodological preview. Journal of Learning Disabilities, 34, 503–511.
Woodcock, R. W., & Johnson M. G. (1977). Woodcock Johnson psycho-educational battery. Allen, TX: DLM Teaching Resources.
Woodcock, R. W., & Johnson, M. G. (1989). Woodcock Johnson psycho-educational battery-revised. Allen, TX: DLM Teaching Resources.
Woodcock, R. W., McGrew, K. S., & Mather, N. (2001). Woodcock-Johnson tests of achievement-III. Itasca, IL: Riverside Publishing Co.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wood, F.B., Hill, D.F., Meyer, M.S. et al. Predictive assessment of reading. Ann. of Dyslexia 55, 193–216 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11881-005-0011-x
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11881-005-0011-x