Abstract
Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are analyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chent J R, Strobl R O, Yeh G T et al., 1998. Modeling of 2D density-dependent flow and transport in the subsurface. Hydrology Engineering, 3(4): 248–257.
Deng Julong, 1987. Gray System Elementary Theory and Method. Wuhan: The Central of China Engineering Institute Press, 12–16. (in Chinese)
Friedkin J F, 1942. A laboratory study of the meandering of Alluvial River. Water Resource, 10: 1–18
Lewin J, Brewer P A, 2001. Predicting channel patterns. Geomorphology, 40: 329–339.
Liu Yaolin, Liu Yanfang, Zhang Yumei, 2004. The forecast research based on gray-Markov model of the farming demand. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 29(7): 576–579. (in Chinese)
Wan Zhongying, Zhong Maosheng, Wang Mingwen et al., 2003. Poyang Lake water level performance forecast model. Journal of Jiangxi Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 27(3): 232–236. (in Chinese)
Wang Liangjian, Peng Buzhuo, 1998. The application of the fractal method in the flooding disaster forecasts. Acta Geographic Sinica, 53(3): 242–246. (in Chinese)
Xiao Tingyan, 1983. Practical Forecast Technology and Application. Wuhan: Central of China Engineering Institute Press, 39–42. (in Chinese)
Xu Jianhua, 2002. Mathematics Method in Modern Geography. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 338–369. (in Chinese)
Yang Chin Ted, 1971. On river meanders. Journal of Hydrology, 13: 231–253.
Zhang Shanyu, Cheng Shengyu, 2000. Flooding disaster gray forecast. Hydrology, (2): 23–26. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40571162), the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (No. 050450401)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Li, X., Wang, X., Shao, W. et al. Forecast of flood in Chaohu Lake basin of China based on Grey-Markov theory. Chin. Geograph.Sc. 17, 64–68 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3