Abstract
Product diffusion refers to the phenomenon that the later demand is dependent on the early sales. To investigate how a firm’s advance selling strategy is affected by the effect of product diffusion, we consider a monopolist seller who sells a fashionable product in a market that comprises of myopic and strategic consumers over two periods (i.e., the advance selling season and the regular selling season). For a linear product diffusion effect we find that, when the effect of product diffusion is positive, the seller may set an extremely high advance selling price to induce the strategic consumers to purchase in the regular selling season, which is counter-intuitive. Moreover, the optimal procurement quantity for the seller may increase in the negative effect of product diffusion and decrease in the amount of strategic consumers. When we extend our model to consider a concave quadratic product diffusion effect, however, the optimal procurement quantity is concave in the amount of strategic consumers. Numerical studies are further presented to discuss the managerial insights.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aviv, Y. & Pazgal, A. (2008). Optimal pricing of seasonal products in the presence of forward-looking consumers. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 10 (3): 339–359.
Bass, F.M. (1969). A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science, 15 (1): 215–227.
Berndtson, C. (2010). Apple sells out iPad pre-order inventory as launch nears. Available via DIALOG. http://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/224200553/apple-sells-out-ipad-pre-order-inventory-as-launch-nears.htm. Cited August 19, 2015.
Bloch, A., Krob, D. & Ng, A.S.F. (2005). Modeling commercial processes and customer behaviors to estimate the diffusion rate of new products. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 14 (4): 436–453.
Boyaci, T. & Özer, Ö. (2010). Information acquisition for capacity planning via pricing and advance selling: when to stop and act? Operations Research, 58 (5): 1328–1349.
Cachon, G.P. & Swinney, R. (2009). Purchasing, pricing, and quick response in the presence of strategic consumers. Management Science, 55 (3): 497–511.
Carnoy, D. (2009). Amazon drops price of Kindle 2 to $299. Available via DIALOG. http://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-drops-price-of-kindle-2-to-299/. Cited August 19, 2015.
Dodson, J.A. & Muller, J.E. (1978). Models of new product diffusion through advertising and word-of-mouth. Management Science, 24 (15): 1568–1578.
Fay, S. & Xie, J. (2010). The economics of buyer uncertainty: advance selling vs. probabilistic selling. Marketing Science, 29 (6): 1040–1056.
King, C. (2009). Title of subordinate document. In: Price drop on Nokia N900 at Amazon.com. Available via DIALOG. http://www.pockettables.netSept. 18. Cited August 19, 2015.
Levin, Y., McGill, J. & Nediak, M. (2009). Dynamic pricing in the presence of strategic consumers and oligopolistic competition. Management Science, 55 (1): 32–46.
Li, C. & Zhang, F. (2012). Advance demand information, price discrimination, and preorder strategies. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 15 (1): 57–71.
Lim, W.S. & Tang, C.S. (2013). Advance selling in the presence of speculators and forward-looking consumers. Production and Operations Management, 22 (3): 571–587.
Liu, Q. & van Ryzin, G.J. (2008). Strategic capacity rationing to induce early purchases. Management Science, 54(6), 1115–1131.
Mahajan, V., Muller, E. & Bass, F.M. (1990). New product diffusion models in marketing: a review and directions for research. The Journal of Marketing, 54: 1–26.
Martínez-de-Albéniz, V. & Talluri, K. (2011). Dynamic price competition with fixed capacities. Management Science, 57 (6): 1078–1093.
McCardle, K., Rajaram, K. & Tang, C.S. (2004). Advance booking discount programs under retail competition. Management Science, 50 (5): 701–708.
Özer, Ö. (2003). Replenishment strategies for distribution systems under advance demand information. Management Science, 49 (3): 255–272.
Shugan, S.M. & Xie, J. (2004). Advance selling for services. California Management Review, 46 (3): 37–54.
Su, X. (2007). Intertemporal pricing with strategic customer behavior. Management Science, 53 (5): 726–741.
Su, X. (2010). Optimal pricing with speculators and strategic consumers. Management Science, 56 (1): 25–40.
Su, X. & Zhang, F. (2008). Strategic customer behavior, commitment, and supply chain performance. Management Science, 54 (10): 1759–1773.
Su, X. & Zhang, F. (2009). On the value of commitment and availability guarantees when selling to strategic consumers. Management Science, 55 (5): 713–726.
Swinney, R. (2011). Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain: the value of matching supply and demand. Management Science, 57 (10): 1737–1751.
Tang, C.S. & Lim, W.S. (2013). Advance selling in the presence of speculators and forward looking consumers. Production and Operations Management, 22 (3): 571–587.
Tang, C.S., Rajaram, K. & Alptekinoglu, A. (2004). The benefits of advance booking discount programs: model and analysis. Management Science, 50 (4): 465–478.
Tigert, D. & Farivar, B. (1981). The Bass new product growth model: a sensitivity analysis for a high technology product. The Journal of Marketing, 45 (4): 81–90.
Van den Bulte, C. & Joshi, Y.V. (2007). New product diffusion with influentials and imitators. Marketing Science, 26 (3): 400–421.
Xie, J. & Shugan, S.M. (2001). Electronic tickets, smart cards, and online prepayments: when and how to advance sell. Marketing Science, 20 (3): 219–243.
Zhao, X. & Stecke, K.E. (2010). Pre-Orders for new to-be-released products considering consumer loss aversion. Production and Operations Management, 19 (2): 198–215.
Zhu, K. & Weyant, J. (2003). Strategic exercise of real options: investment decisions in technological systems. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 12 (3): 257–278.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the editor and referees for their insightful suggestions to significantly improve the quality of the paper. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants Nos. 71371176, 71571115 and 71320107004.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Xiaoyan Xu is a professor of School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. She received the Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering from University of Science & Technology of China (USTC) in 2006. Her research interests are operations management, the interface on finance and operations management. She has published academic papers in many journals, including Omega, Decision Support Systems, Computers & Industrial Engineering, etc.
Xuemei Li is currently working toward the Ph.D. degree in management science at the School of Management, USTC, Hefei, China. Her research interest is operations management.
Yiwen Bian is an associate professor of management science in SILC Business School, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China. He received the Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering from USTC in 2006. His research interests are decision analysis and operations management. He has published papers in many journals, including Omega, Energy Policy, International Journal of Cleaner Production, etc.
Yanhong Sun is a lecturer of management science in SILC Business School, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China. She received the Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering from USTC in 2010. Her research interests are operations management and supply chain management. She has published papers in Decision Support Systems, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, International Journal of Production Economics, etc.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Xu, X., Li, X., Bian, Y. et al. Advance selling in the presence of product diffusion effect. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 26, 77–99 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5285-x
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5285-x