Abstract
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics of China’s potential vegetation in the past 55 years (1961–2015) and in the future 35 years (2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.
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Foundation: Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749; Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education, No.15ZB0023; Youth Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41301196, No.41501202; Chongqing Foundation and Advanced Research Project, No.cstc2014jcyjA0808
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Yuan, Q., Wu, S., Dai, E. et al. NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future. J. Geogr. Sci. 27, 131–142 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1368-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1368-6