Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios: An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

  • Published:
Journal of Geographical Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China’s natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China’s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward F I et al., 2001. Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology, 7: 357–373, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doherty R M, Sitch S, Smith B et al., 2010. Implication of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa. Global Change Biology, 16: 617–640.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu B J, Niu D, Zhao S D, 2005. Study on global change and terrestrial ecosystem: History and prospect. Advance in Earth Sciences, 20(5): 556–560. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao X J, Shi Y, Song R Y et al., 2008. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorology Atmospheric Physics, 100: 73–86.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Haberlandt U et al., 2004. Terrestrial vegetation and water balance: Hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology, 286: 249–270.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hitz S, Smith J, 2004. Estimating global impacts from climate change. Global Environmental Change, 14: 201–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISSCAS), 1986. Atlas of China Soil. Beijing: SinoMaps Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2007. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ji J J, Huang M, Liu Q, 2005. Modeling studies of response mechanism of steppe productivity to climate change in middle latitude semiarid regions in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 63(3): 257–266. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ju W M, Chen J M, Harvey D et al., 2007. Future carbon balance of China’s forests under climate change and increasing CO2. Journal of Environmental Management, 85: 538–562.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koca D, Smith B, Sykes M T, 2006. Modeling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden. Climatic Change, 78: 381–401.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li B, Zhou T J, 2010. Projected climate change over China under SRES A1B scenario: Multi-model ensemble and uncertainties. Advances in Climate Change Research, 6(4): 270–276. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li S C, Wu S H, Dai E F, 2005. Assessing the fragility of ecosystem using artificial neural network model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 25(3): 621–326. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Z et al., 1993. Physical Geography in Northeast China. Beijing: Higher Education Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Minnen J G, Onigkeit J, Alcamo J, 2002. Critical climate change as an approach to assess climate change impacts in Europe: Development and application. Environmental Science and Policy, 5: 335–347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morales P, Hick T, Rowell DP et al., 2007. Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by regional climate model output. Global Change Biology, 13: 108–122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Assessment Report of Climate Change Editorial Committee (NARCCEC), 2011. Second National Assessment Report of Climate Change. Beijing: Science Press, 205–258. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng S L, Zhao P, Ren H et al., 2002. The possible heat-driven pattern variation of zonal vegetation and agricultural ecosystems along the north-south transect of China under the global change. Earth Science Frontiers, 9(1): 217–226. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell N W et al., 2006. A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 103: 13116–13120, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0601816103.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R et al., 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310: 1333–1337, doi: 10.1126/science. 1115233.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi Y, Gao X J, Wu J et al., 2010. Simulating future climate changes over north China with a high resolution regional climate model. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 21(5): 580–589. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sitch S, Huntingford C, Gedney N et al., 2008. Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology, 14: 2015–2039, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice I C et al., 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Change Biology, 9: 161–185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang G X, Hu H C, Wang Y B et al., 2007. Response of alpine cold ecosystem biomass to climate changes in permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 29(5): 671–679. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Weng E S, Zhou G S, 2006. Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under climate change. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 11(1): 45–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu J G, Lv J J, 2009. Potential effect of climate change on the distribution and range of arid regions. Research of Environmental Sciences, 22(2): 199–206. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu S H, Dai E F, Huang M et al., 2007. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century. Chinese Sciences Bulletin, 52(7): 811–817.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu S H, Yin Y H, Zhao H X, 2005. Recognition of ecosystem response to climate change impact. Advances in Climate Change Research, 1(3): 115–118. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y L, Jones R, 2004. Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China. Agricultural Meteorology, 25(1): 5–9. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin Y H, Wu S H, Zheng D et al., 2008. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China. Agriculture Water Management, 95: 77–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Li, Cao Mingkui, Tao Bo et al., 2008. Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems of China to climate change based on potential vegetation. Journal of Plant Ecology, 32(3): 521–530. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao D S, Wu S H, Yin Y H, 2011a. Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 22(4): 897–904. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao D S, Wu S H, Yin Y H et al., 2011b. Vegetation distribution on Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenario. Regional Environment Change, 11(4): 905–915.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao J F, Yan X D Jia G S, 2009. Changes in carbon budget of Northeast China forest ecosystems under future climatic scenario. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 28(5): 781–787. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao M S, Neilson P R, Yan X D et al., 2002. Modelling the vegetation of China under changing climate. Acta Geographica Sinica, 57(1): 28–37. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zheng D, 2008. Chinese Ecogeographical Regionalization Research. Beijing: The Commercial Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Dongsheng Zhao & Shaohong Wu

Authors
  1. Dongsheng Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Shaohong Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shaohong Wu.

Additional information

Foundation: The “Strategic Priority Research Program” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308; National Key Technologies R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan of China, No.2012BAC19B04; No.2012BAC19B10

Author: Zhao Dongsheng (1978–), PhD, specialized in impact and adaption of ecosystem to climate change.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhao, D., Wu, S. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios: An analysis based on eco-geographical regions. J. Geogr. Sci. 24, 237–248 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1085-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1085-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation