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A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia

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Abstract

The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario). The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010–2099, the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s, with a small increase (∼1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (∼9%) afterward. This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China, and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley. In 2010–2099, the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of “wet East China” that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance. The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s, indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China. Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance, with no prominent liner trend in the future. By the late 21st century, the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia. At low level, this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS, and at high level, it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia. The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010–2099, with a prominent increase (by ∼0.6 m s−1) after the 2040s. The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ∼9%) at the end of 21st century. The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables. These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor, which is greatly different from South Asia. Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia, i.e., the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ying Sun & YiHui Ding

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  1. Ying Sun
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  2. YiHui Ding
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Correspondence to Ying Sun.

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Sun, Y., Ding, Y. A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia. Sci. China Earth Sci. 53, 284–300 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y

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