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Dynamic assessment and system dynamics simulation of safety risk in whole life cycle of coal mine

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Abstract

Based on the accident causation theory, the mechanism and inducement of construction safety risk in mining enterprises are clarified. The safety risk system of mining enterprises is divided into five subsystems: personnel, material equipment, technology, environment, and management by rough set theory. The comprehensive weight of each risk factor is calculated by network analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Taking a mine in Shanxi Province as the research object, the causal traceability diagram and stock flow diagram of the risk system of mining enterprises are constructed by means of system dynamics model. The influence of various risk factors of the mine on the overall safety risk management level of the enterprise is simulated, and the numerical value of key personnel influence factors is adjusted. The sensitivity changes of safety productivity and safety risk management level of mining enterprises in different situations are analyzed. The results show that: (1) the management and personnel subsystem has the greatest impact on the safety risk management of mining enterprises, followed by the technology, material equipment, and environment subsystem. (2) Increasing safety input can improve the safety level and reduce the expected safety value time, otherwise it will reduce the safety level and delay the expected safety value time. (3) Further simulation of the personnel subsystem, it is found that the factors affecting the safety level of mining enterprises contain six factors, namely, the technical level of construction personnel, the management level of manager, the conduct code of construction personnel, the safety consciousness of practitioners, the basic quality of construction personnel, and the physical and mental state of construction personnel. (4) The conversion rate of personnel safety input to manager’s management level and the safety consciousness of practitioners presents a steep decline—slow rise—gradually steady development trend, which mainly because the benefits of safety input have certain time delay and lag.

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Data used in this manuscript is available from corresponding author.

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Funding

This research is supported by Major special projects of science and technology in Shanxi Province (20191101016) and the Social Science Association research project of Anhui University of Science and Technology “Simulation and prediction of carbon peak carbon neutralization in coal life cycle from multi-scenario perspective” (SKL2021202209).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Mining Response and Disaster and Prevention and Control in Deep Coal Mines, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China

    Yanna Zhu, Cheng Li, Ke Yang & Guisheng Zhang

  2. Shanxi Coking Coal Group Co., Ltd, Taiyuan, 030024, China

    Lirong Li & Yanqun Yang

  3. School of Mining Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China

    Ke Yang

Authors
  1. Yanna Zhu
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  2. Cheng Li
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  3. Lirong Li
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  4. Ke Yang
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  5. Yanqun Yang
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  6. Guisheng Zhang
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Contributions

Lirong Li, Ke Yang, and Yanqun Yang are responsible for the topic selection and conception of the manuscript, while Yanna Zhu, Cheng Li, and Guisheng Zhang are responsible for the data processing and calculation and jointly complete the paper writing.

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Correspondence to Cheng Li.

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Zhu, Y., Li, C., Li, L. et al. Dynamic assessment and system dynamics simulation of safety risk in whole life cycle of coal mine. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 64154–64167 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26958-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26958-7

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