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An integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework under uncertainty for evaluating sustainable hydrogen production strategies based on renewable energies in Iran

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Abstract

Due to population growth and the expansion of different industries, Iran is confronted with the issue of energy and hydrogen generation for various sectors. According to research, Iran has much potential for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Renewable energy is critical for meeting the needs of various industries by producing energy and hydrogen. As a result, this study identified and analyzed development plans for hydrogen production from Iran’s renewable energies using SWOT analysis and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. The Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) approach was used to weigh the criteria and sub-criteria, and power generation cost was identified as the most critical sub-criteria. Then, the identified strategies were ranked using the gray additive ratio assessment (ARAS-Gray) method. Following that, the gray technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS-G), the gray complex proportional assessment (COPRAS-G), and the gray simple additive weighting (SAW-G) techniques were used to validate the results. The finding revealed that the strategy of cooperation and coordination between energy investing companies and various industries in Iran to develop hydrogen projects at a minimum cost was recognized as the most efficient strategy in all procedures. As a result, with the cooperation and coordination of companies and various industries in Iran, clean energy and fuel can be produced at a low cost using renewable sources. By implementing this strategy, the fluctuations in energy production caused by renewable sources will be eliminated, and the energy and hydrogen requirements of various industries will be met.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

ARAS-G:

The gray additive ratio assessment

COPRAS-G:

The gray complex proportional assessment

MCDM:

Multi-criteria decision-making

SAW-G:

The gray simple additive weighting

SWARA:

The stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis

SWOT:

Strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats

TOPSIS-G:

The gray technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution

\({K}_{i}\) :

The value of application degree for alternative i in the ARAS method

\({q}_{j}\) :

The local weight of criterion j

\(\otimes {S}_{i}\) :

The gray value of the optimal function for alternative i in the ARAS method

\({S}_{i}\) :

The determined value of the optimal function for alternative i in the ARAS method

\({w}_{j}\) :

The final weight of criterion j

\(\otimes x\) :

The gray number \(x\)

\({\otimes x}_{0j}\) :

The ideal value for criterion j

\(\otimes {\overline{x} }_{ij}\) :

The normalized value for alternative i in criterion j

\(\otimes {\widehat{x}}_{ij}\) :

The weighted normalized value for alternative i in criterion j

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  1. Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

    Seyyed Jalaladdin Hosseini Dehshiri & Maghsoud Amiri

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  1. Seyyed Jalaladdin Hosseini Dehshiri
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Conceptualization, methodology, investigation, formal analysis, software, and writing—the original draft were done by Seyyed Jalaladdin Hosseini Dehshiri. Supervision and resources were done by Maghsoud Amiri. Validation and writing—review and editing were performed by Seyyed Jalaladdin Hosseini Dehshiri and Maghsoud Amiri. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Seyyed Jalaladdin Hosseini Dehshiri and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Hosseini Dehshiri, S.J., Amiri, M. An integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework under uncertainty for evaluating sustainable hydrogen production strategies based on renewable energies in Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 46058–46073 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25489-5

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