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Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China’s grain production

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Abstract

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.

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Data availability

The time-series data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request and also made feely available at www.cma.cn and http://tongji.cnki.net/.

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Funding

The current research is funded by the Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Research Project (19JYB031).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, 150030, Harbin, China

    Trinh Thi Viet Ha, Honglu Fan & Li Shuang

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  1. Trinh Thi Viet Ha
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  2. Honglu Fan
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Contributions

Trinh Thi Viet Ha conceptualized, analyzed, and wrote the original draft. Honglu Fan curtained data and wrote and reviewed and edited the original draft. Li Shuang provided the resources, funding acquisition, and corrected the original draft.

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Correspondence to Li Shuang.

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This study does not require ethical approval as no human participant or animal subject was involved.

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Ha, T.T.V., Fan, H. & Shuang, L. Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China’s grain production. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 14508–14520 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11602-5

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