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Exploring the linkage among energy intensity, carbon emission and urbanization in Pakistan: fresh evidence from ecological modernization and environment transition theories

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Abstract

This study uses ecological modernization and environmental transition theories to estimate the interaction among energy intensity, carbon emission and urbanization for the period of 1980–2017. We have systematically examined the empirical connections among emission, urbanization, income per capita, imports, exports, energy use, trade openness and energy intensity. The Johnson co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) causality methods are employed for the sake of analysis. Overall findings confirm the dynamic and U-shaped relationship between emission and urbanization, and carbon emission and income per capita. The empirical results of urbanization, inflation and financial development illustrate positive association with the energy intensity, whereas trade openness, labour force participation and carbon emission show a negative association with the dependent variable. Moreover, outcomes of causality analysis provide evidence of varied causality link among the variables across the models. The study provides the implications for the decision makers in Pakistan to choose new urbanization patterns that are less reliant on energy consumption.

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Acknowledgements

We thank all those who provided help during this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan

    Syed Ale Raza Shah, Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Sofia Anwar

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  1. Syed Ale Raza Shah
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Correspondence to Syed Asif Ali Naqvi.

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 14 Results of variance decomposition analysis
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Fig. 5
figure 5

Orthonormal loading biplot of selected models

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Fig. 6
figure 6

Results of IRF for Model 1 (dependent variable: CO2)

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Fig. 7
figure 7

Results of IRF for Model 2 (dependent variable: CO2)

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Fig. 8
figure 8

Results of IRF for Model 3 (dependent variable: energy intensity)

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Fig. 9
figure 9

Causality relationships among variables for selected models. CO2 carbon emission, URB urbanization, URB2 square of urbanization, EXP exports, GDP growth, FD financial development, IMP imports, EI energy intensity. Double-headed arrows indicate bidirectional causality, and single-headed arrows indicate unidirectional causality

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Shah, S.A.R., Naqvi, S.A.A. & Anwar, S. Exploring the linkage among energy intensity, carbon emission and urbanization in Pakistan: fresh evidence from ecological modernization and environment transition theories. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 40907–40929 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09227-9

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