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Correlation Analysis Between the Components of Energy Balance and Pollutant Emissions

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Abstract

In the paper, a correlation analysis is carried out between the components of the energy balance (types of energy resources, the transformation sector, and energy consuming industries) and pollutant emissions (CO2, SO2, NO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5) using the example of Ukraine. In general, 153 samples were formed and considered, characterizing the relationship between the components of the energy balance and pollutant emissions. Due to the relatively small sample sizes, the corrected assessment of the correlation coefficient \( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) was used as an informative parameter of the correlation analysis. The significance of the \( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) was tested using 2 hypotheses: (1) about the randomness of deviation from 0 using t-distribution with (n−2) degrees of freedom and significance level α = 0.05; (2) about the relationship between random variables with the limiting value rα. The confidence boundaries for the \( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) with a probability of P = 0.95 were calculated using the Fisher Z-transform. It is shown that 70% of the considered samples have a positive correlation relationship, and more than 24% have a negative correlation relationship. Coal and peat have the greatest impact on pollutant emissions (SO2, NO2, PM10) (\( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) > 0.95). The smallest value was recorded between gas enterprises and PM10 emissions (\( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) = −0.907).

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Abbreviations

toe:

tons of oil equivalent

TPP:

thermal power plant

SD:

standard deviation

n :

sample’s volume

r :

correlation coefficient

\( \hat{r} \) :

statistical assessment of correlation coefficient

\( {\hat{r}}^{\prime } \) :

corrected assessment of correlation coefficient

r α :

limit value of correlation coefficient

P :

confidence level

α :

significance level

u 1 − α/2 :

quantile of the normal distribution

t 1 − α/2 :

quantile of the Student’s distribution

ν :

degrees of freedom

M :

mathematical expectation

σ :

dispersion

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Funding

The project presented in this article is supported by «Development of methods and ways to improve the environmental efficiency and durability of chimneys of heat power plants» (2020-2021, 0120U101123), which is financed by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

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  1. Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

    Artur O. Zaporozhets

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Correspondence to Artur O. Zaporozhets.

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Zaporozhets, A.O. Correlation Analysis Between the Components of Energy Balance and Pollutant Emissions. Water Air Soil Pollut 232, 114 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-021-05048-9

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