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Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India

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Abstract

Climate change can significantly affect the water resources availability by resulting changes in hydrological cycle. Hydrologic models are usually used to predict the impacts of landuse and climate changes and to evaluate the management strategies. In this study, impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Brahmani River basin were assessed using Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) run under the platform of Modular Modeling System (MMS). The plausible hypothetical scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes were used to assess the sensitivity of streamflow to changed climatic condition. The PRMS model was calibrated and validated for the study area. Model performance was evaluated by using joint plots of daily and monthly observed and simulated runoff hydrographs and different statistical indicators. Daily observed and simulated hydrographs showed a reasonable agreement for calibration as well as validation periods. The modeling efficiency (E) varied in the range of 0.69 to 0.93 and 0.85 to 0.95 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Simulation studies with temperature rise of 2 and 4°C indicated 6 and 11% decrease in annual streamflow, respectively. However, there is about 62% increase in annual streamflow under the combined effect of 4°C temperature rise and 30% rainfall increase (T4P30). The results of the scenario analysis showed that the basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall as compared to changes in temperature.

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Acknowledgements

The work has been carried out under the ICAR funded Network Project on Climate Change “Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change”. The authors would like to thank the Central Water Commission, India Meteorological Department and National Bureau of Soil Survey & Land Use Planning for providing necessary data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ICAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, Patna, Bihar, India

    Adlul Islam, Alok K. Sikka, B. Saha & Anamika Singh

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  1. Adlul Islam
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  2. Alok K. Sikka
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  3. B. Saha
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  4. Anamika Singh
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Correspondence to Adlul Islam.

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Islam, A., Sikka, A.K., Saha, B. et al. Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India. Water Resour Manage 26, 1409–1424 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9965-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9965-0

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