Abstract
The current progression toward solar maximum provides a unique opportunity to use multi-perspective spacecraft observations together with numerical models to better understand the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Of interest to both the scientific and forecasting communities are the Earth-directed “halo” CMEs, since they typically produce the most geoeffective events. However, determining the actual initial geometries of halo CMEs is a challenge due to the plane-of-sky projection effects. Thus the recent 15 February 2011 halo CME event has been selected for this study. During this event the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) A and B spacecraft were fortuitously located ∼ 90° away from the Sun–Earth line such that the CME was viewed as a limb event from these two spacecraft, thereby providing a more reliable constraint on the initial CME geometry. These multi-perspective observations were utilized to provide a simple geometrical description that assumes a cone shape for a CME to calculate its angular width and central position. The event was simulated using the coupled Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA)-Enlil 3D numerical solar corona-solar wind model. Daily updated global photospheric magnetic field maps were used to drive the background solar wind. To improve our modeling techniques, the sensitivity of the modeled CME arrival times to the initial input CME geometry was assessed by creating an ensemble of numerical simulations based on multiple sets of cone parameters for this event. It was found that the accuracy of the modeled arrival times not only depends on the initial input CME geometry, but also on the accuracy of the modeled solar wind background, which is driven by the input maps of the photospheric field. To improve the modeling of the background solar wind, the recently developed data-assimilated magnetic field synoptic maps produced by the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model were used. The ADAPT maps provide a more instantaneous snapshot of the global photospheric field distribution than that provided by traditional daily updated synoptic maps. Using ADAPT to drive the background solar wind, an ensemble set of eight different CME arrival times was generated, where the spread in the predictions was ∼ 13 hours and was nearly centered on the observed CME shock arrival time.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) and National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) for providing the OMNI data and OMNIWeb access, the National Solar Observatory Global Oscillation Network Group for providing access to their magnetogram and synoptic map data sets, and the agencies sponsoring these archives (NASA, NSF, USAF). The authors would like to acknowledge that SOHO is a project of international cooperation between the European Space Agency and NASA. In addition, the authors wish to express thanks to Drs. Joan Burkepile and Doug Biesecker for discussions regarding the complexities of characterizing halo CMEs from line-of-sight white light coronagraph images.
Christina O. Lee thanks the journal editors, special guest editors, and the referee for their assistance in evaluating and improving the content of this paper.
This research was performed while Christina O. Lee held a National Research Council Research Associateship Award at the Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate in Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico and is supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.
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Observations and Modelling of the Inner Heliosphere
Guest Editors: Mario M. Bisi, Richard A. Harrison, Noé Lugaz
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Lee, C.O., Arge, C.N., Odstrčil, D. et al. Ensemble Modeling of CME Propagation. Sol Phys 285, 349–368 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9980-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9980-1