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Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions – Sources of Non-recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

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Abstract

This study aims at the early diagnostics of the geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst<−100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 Å images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the B z component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the B z component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the B z component is negative.

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Notes

  1. Here and afterwards the GMS events are numbered according to the CDAW catalog (Zhang et al. 2007a, 2007b).

  2. All times hereafter are UT.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to an anonymous reviewer for useful remarks. The authors thank the SOHO EIT, MDI, LASCO teams and the CDAW participants for data and materials used in the present study. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. This research was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research under grants 09-02-00115, 11-02-00757, and 12-02-00037, the Program of basic research of the RAS Presidium No. 22, and the Russian Ministry of Education and Science under State Contract 16.518.11.7065.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), Troitsk, Moscow Region, 142190, Russia

    I. M. Chertok, A. V. Belov & A. A. Abunin

  2. Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS, Lermontov St. 126A, Irkutsk, 664033, Russia

    V. V. Grechnev

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  1. I. M. Chertok
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  2. V. V. Grechnev
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Chertok, I.M., Grechnev, V.V., Belov, A.V. et al. Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions – Sources of Non-recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases. Sol Phys 282, 175–199 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-0127-1

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