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Psychometric Assessment of Dynamic Risk Factors for Child Molesters

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Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment

Abstract

To explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors and recidivism in child molesters, we studied a sample of men (N = 495) who completed an intensive, prison-based treatment program in New Zealand. During the follow-up period (M = 5.8 years), 9.9% were reconvicted for a sexual offense. A self-report psychometric battery was administered at pre-treatment that assessed a range of variables related to sexual attitudes and beliefs, emotional functioning, and interpersonal competency. Factor analysis showed that individual differences in the battery could be described by four dimensions—Social Inadequacy, Sexual Interests, Anger/Hostility, and Pro-Offending Attitudes. Factor scores for each dimension were significantly correlated with sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that the Sexual Interests and Pro-Offending Attitudes factor scores, as well as an Overall Deviance score which combined the dimensions, provided significant additional validity for predicting recidivism beyond the Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton Law and Human Behavior 24:119–136, 2000). When added to the Static-99, the Overall Deviance score increased the area under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.72 to 0.81. These results show that psychometric self-reports can provide valid measures of dynamic risk factors, and that inclusion of such measures can improve risk prediction beyond that achievable by static factors alone.

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Notes

  1. Normative data were obtained from adult male samples for the following measures: ABCS—Tierney and McCabe (2001); HTW—Malamuth et al. (1991); RMAS—Burt (1980); WSFQ—Plaud and Bigwood (1997); STAI—Spielberger (1983); STAXI—Spielberger (1988); AI-RP—Gambrill and Richey (1975); UCLS—Russell et al. (1980); ANSIE—Nowicki, personal communication; SADS—Watson and Friend (1969); M-CSD—Marlowe and Crowne (1964); FIS—Doi and Thelen (1993).

  2. It is important to note that the exponentiated coefficient provides an estimate of the odds ratio associated with a unit increase in the predictor variable, not the relative probability. For example, the 45% increase associated with a unit increase in Static-99 score implies an odds ratio of 1.45:1. Because an odds is calculated as p/(1 − p), this means that if the probability of sexual recidivism associated with a Static-99 score of n was, say, 0.10, which equals an odds of 0.1/(1 − 0.1) = 0.11, then the predicted odds for a score of n + 1 would be 1.45 × 0.11 = 0.16, which implies a probability of 0.14. For an accessible introductory tutorial on logistic regression, see DeMaris (1995).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Michael Allan, Randolph C. Grace & Stephen M. Hudson

  2. Kia Marama Special Treatment Unit, Rolleston Prison, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Bronwyn Rutherford

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  1. Michael Allan
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  2. Randolph C. Grace
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  3. Bronwyn Rutherford
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  4. Stephen M. Hudson
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Correspondence to Randolph C. Grace.

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Allan, M., Grace, R.C., Rutherford, B. et al. Psychometric Assessment of Dynamic Risk Factors for Child Molesters. Sex Abuse 19, 347–367 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11194-007-9052-5

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