Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The role of villages in households’ poverty exit: evidence from a multilevel model for rural Vietnam

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Vietnam experienced a dramatic drop in overall poverty during the 90s. However, the poverty reduction showed substantial variation across households, villages and regions. Using a multilevel model on panel data from the rural sample of the Vietnam Living Standard Measurement Survey we demonstrate the important role of villages in household poverty exit dynamics. We also show how an analysis of village-level random effects predictions can help targeting of policies to reduce poverty.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. For details on the Living Standards Measurement Study of the World Bank see http://www.worldbank.org/lsms/guide/select.html.

  2. In Vietnam there is a large population of ethnic minorities that tends to be significantly poorer than Kinh majority. An analysis of the disparities in living standards among the different ethnic groups in Vietnam can be found in Baulch et al. (2007).

  3. The random-effect model is estimated using quadrature which is an approximation whose accuracy depends (also) on the number of integration points used. We assessed the sensitivity of parameter estimates according to the number of integration points. We started with the default 12 quadrature points and compared the results to two different choices: 8 and 16 quadrature points. The relative and absolute differences were small among the three cases and so we concluded that the quadrature technique is stable.

  4. This kind of analysis is common in the education research literature where it is used in the study of school performance (see e.g., Goldstein and Thomas 1996).

  5. Standard errors for VPC are calculated using the delta method (Oehlert 1992). This is expected to be quite a valid approximation in our case since we have a sufficient number of clusters at village level. Moreover, the random intercept variance was tested through a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). We have to note in this case that, since variances are always positive, the null hypothesis falls on the boundary of the parameter space. As a consequence, the limiting distribution of the LRT statistic is not the usual \(\chi ^{2}\) with 1 degree of freedom, but is instead a 50:50 mixture of such a distribution and a point mass at 0 (Self and Liang 1987). To keep this complication into account, Snijders and Bosker (1999) suggest halving the p-value resulting from a standard LRT. Results, not shown here, confirm the statistical significance of the between-cluster variability.

  6. These are the square root of the variances of the prediction errors (Skrondal and Rabe-Hesketh 2004). They are referred to as the comparative standard errors because they can be used for inferences regarding differences between predictions of the random effects. They have to be distinguished from the sampling standard deviation that is the square root of sampling variance of the EB predictions distribution. These are referred as diagnostic standard errors since they can be used to find aberrant predictions.

References

  • Alther, C., Castella, J.C., Novosad, P., Rousseau, E., Tran, T.H.: Impact of accessibility on the range of livelihood options available to farm households in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam. In: Castella, J.C., Dang, D.Q. (eds.) Doi Moi in the Mountains. Land Use Changes and Farmers’ Livelihood Strategies in Bac Kan Province, Vietnam, pp. 121–146. The Agricultural Publishing House, Hanoi (2002)

  • Arpino, B., Aassve, A.: Estimation of causal effects of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods. Empir. Econ. 44(1), 355–385 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arpino, B., Varriale, R. (2010) Assessing the quality of institutions’ rankings obtained through multilevel linear regression models. J. Appl. Econ. Sci. 5(1(11)), 7–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balisacan, A.M., Pernia, E.M., Estrada, G.E.B.: Economic growth and poverty reduction in Vietnam. In: Pernia, E.M., Deolalikar, A.B. (eds.) Poverty, Growth and Institutions in Developing Asia. Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  • Baulch, B., Chuyen, T.T.K., Haughton, D., Haughton, J.: Ethnic minority development in Vietnam. J. Dev. Stud. 43(7), 1151–1176 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brady, D., Burroway, R.: Targeting, universalism, and single-mother poverty: a multilevel analysis across 18 affluent democracies. Demography 49(2), 719–746 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brady, D., Fullerton, A.S., Cross, J.M.: Putting poverty in political context: a multi-level analysis of adult poverty across 18 affluent democracies. Soc. Forces 88(1), 271–299 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castella, J.-C., Manhc, P.H., Kamb, S.P., Villano, L., Tronche, N.R.: Analysis of village accessibility and its impact on land use dynamics in a mountainous province of northern Vietnam. Appl. Geogr. 25, 308–326 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coudouel, A., Hentschel, J., Wodon, Q.: Poverty Measurement and Analysis. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Sourcebook. World Bank, Washington (2002)

  • Deaton, A., Zaidi, S.: Guidelines for constructing consumption aggregates for welfare analysis. Living standards measurement study. Working Paper No. 135, The World Bank, Washington (2002)

  • Falaris, E.M.: The effect of survey attrition in longitudinal surveys: evidence from Peru, Cote d’Ivoire, and Vietnam. J. Dev. Econ. 70, 133–157 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • General Statistical Office: Vietnam Living Standards Survey—1992/1993. Basic Informations, Hanoi (1994)

  • General Statistical Office: Vietnam Living Standards Survey—1997/1998. Basic Informations, Hanoi (2000)

  • Glewwe, P., Hoang Dang, H.-A.: Was Vietnam’s economic growth in the 1990s pro-poor? An analysis of panel data from Vietnam. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 59(3), 583–608 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glewwe, P., Gragnolati, M., Zaman, H.: Who gained from Vietnam’s boom in the 1990s? Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 50(4), 773–792 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, H., Healy, M.J.R.: The graphical presentation of a collection of means. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 158, 175–177 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, H., Thomas, S.: Using examination results as indicators of school and college performance. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 159, 149–163 (1996)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grosh, M., Glewwe, P.: A guide to living standards surveys and their data sets. LSMS Working Paper No. 120. The World Bank, Washington (1995)

  • Goldstein, H., Browne, W., Rasbash, J.: Partitioning variation in multilevel models. Underst. Stat. 1(4), 223–231 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haughton, J.: Introduction: extraordinary changes. In: Haughton, D., Haughton, J., Phong, N. (eds.) Living Standards During an Economic Boom: Vietnam 1993–1998. Statistical Publishing House, Hanoi (2001)

  • Haughton, D., Nguyen, P.: Multilevel models and inequality in Vietnam. J. Data Sci. 8, 289–306 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • Huong, P.L., Tuan, B.Q., Minh, D.H.: Employment poverty linkages and policies for pro-poor growth in Viet Nam. ILO issues in employment and poverty. Discussion Paper 9, Geneva (2003)

  • Justino, P., Litchfield, J.: Welfare in Vietnam during the 1990s: poverty. Inequality and poverty dynamics. J. Asia Pac. Econ. 9(2), 145–169 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Justino, P., Litchfield, J., Pham, T.H.: Poverty dynamics during trade reform evidence from rural Vietnam. Rev. Income Wealth 54(2) (2008)

  • Kikuchi, T.: An analysis of the impacts of development on Gini inequality using grouped and individual observations: examples from the 1998 Vietnamese Household Expenditure Data. J. Asian Econ. 18, 537–552 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, K., Lee, Y., Lee, Y.: A multilevel analysis of factors related to poverty in welfare states. Soc. Indic. Res. 99, 391–404 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le, T.C., Rambo, A.T.: Bright Peaks, Dark Valleys: A Comparative Analysis of Environmental and Social Conditions and Development Trends in Five Communities in Vietnam’s Northern Mountain Region. National Publishing House, Hanoi (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lipton, M., Ravallion, M.: Poverty and policy. In: Behrman, J., Srinivasen, T.N. (eds.) Handbook of Development Economics, vol. 3B. Elsevier, Amsterdam (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, A.Y.C.: Changing wage structure and education in Vietnam, 1992–98. The roles of demand. Econ. Transit. 14, 681–706 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maas, C.J.M., Hox, J.J.: Robustness issues in multilevel regression analysis. Stat. Neerl. 58(2), 127–137 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minot, N., Baulch, B.: Poverty mapping with aggregate census data: what is the loss in precision? Rev. Dev. Econ. 9(1), 5–25 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Nhung, T.T.H.: Vietnam’s coastal communities: an assessment of poverty. Eurasian Geogr. Econ. 48, 81–494 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niimi, Y., Vasudeva-Dutta, P., Winters, A.: Trade liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam. PRUS Working Paper No. 17, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex (2003)

  • Nguyen, B.T., Albrecht, J.W., Vroman, S., Westbrook, M.D.: A quantile regression decomposition of urban-rural inequality in Vietnam. J. Dev. Econ. 83, 466–490 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oehlert, G.W.: A note on the delta method. Am. Stat. 46, 27–29 (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Loughlin, J.: Democratic values in a globalizing world: a multilevel analysis of geographic contexts. GeoJournal 60, 3–17 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poston, D.L., Singelmann, J., Siordia, C., Slack, T., Robertson, B.A., Saenz, R., Fontenot, K.: Spatial context and poverty: area-level effects and micro-level effects on household poverty in the Texas Borderland & Lower Mississippi Delta: United States, 2006. Appl. Spat. Anal. 3, 139–162 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Que, N.T.: Effects of liberalization on agriculture in Vietnam: institutional and structural aspects. Working Paper No. 40, The CGPRT Centre, Bogor, Indonesia (1998)

  • Rabe-Hesketh, S., Skrondal, A., Pickles, A.: GLLAMM manual. U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series. Working Paper No. 160. http://biostats.bepress.com/ucbbiostat/paper160 (2004)

  • Ravallion, M., Bidani, B.: How robust is a poverty profile? World Bank Econ. Rev. 8(1), 75–101 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Self, S.G., Liang, K.-Y.: Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests under nonstandard conditions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82(398), 605–610 (1987)

    Google Scholar 

  • Shanks, E.: Vietnam: Agriculture and Forestry Extension and Sustainable Livelihoods in the Uplands. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Hanoi (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Skrondal, A., Rabe-Hesketh, S.: Generalized Latent Variable Modelling: Multilevel Longitudinal and Structural Equation Models. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2004)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, R.B.: Multilevel Modeling of Social Problems: A Causal Perspective. Springer, Cambridge (2011)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Snijders, T.A.B., Bosker, R.J.: Multilevel Analysis. An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modelling. Sage, London (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  • Subramanian, S.V., Jones, K., Duncan, C.: Multilevel methods for public health research. In: Kawachi, I., Berkman, L.F. (eds.) Neighborhoods and Health, pp. 65–111. Oxford University Press, New York (2003)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Testa, M.R., Grilli, L.: The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe: a multilevel analysis. Population 61(1–2), 107–137 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van de Walle, D.: Choosing rural road investments to help reduce poverty. World Dev. 30(4), 575–589 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Kình, H., Baulch, B., Quý Dang, L., Van Dong, N., Doan Gác, N., Ngoc Koa, N.: Determinants of earned income. In: Haughton, D., Haughton, J., Phong, N. (eds.) Living Standards During an Economic Boom: Vietnam 1993–1998. Statistical Publishing House, Hanoi (2001)

  • White, H., Masset, E.: Child Poverty in Vietnam: Using Adult Equivalence Scales to Estimate Income-Poverty for Different Age Groups. MPRA Paper 777. University Library of Munich, Germany (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • White, H., Masset, E.: Constructing the poverty profile: an illustration of the importance of allowing for household size and composition in the case of Vietnam, Young Lives. Working Paper No. 3. Young Lives and Save the Children Fund UK, London (2003)

  • Wooldridge, J.M.: Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. MIT Press, Cambridge (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank: Vietnam: Attacking Poverty—Vietnam Development Report 2000. Joint Report of the Government-Donor–NGO Working Group, Hanoi (2000)

  • World Bank: Introduction to Poverty Analysis. World Bank Institute, Washington (2005)

  • Yeung, Y.: Vietnam: two decades of urban development. Eurasian Geogr. Econ. 48(2), 269–288 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research and Expertise Centre on Survey Methodology (RECSM), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, C/Ramon Trias Fargas, 25–27, 08005, Barcelona

    Bruno Arpino

  2. “Carlo F. Dondena” Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

    Arnstein Aassve

Authors
  1. Bruno Arpino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Arnstein Aassve
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bruno Arpino.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Arpino, B., Aassve, A. The role of villages in households’ poverty exit: evidence from a multilevel model for rural Vietnam. Qual Quant 48, 2175–2189 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-013-9885-6

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-013-9885-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation