Abstract
According to a consolidated tradition of research about the psychology of decisions (Newell et al. 2007) and the psychometric psychology (Sartori 2008), the present study aims at analysing the preferences of individuals between the main numeric expressions of uncertainty: the probabilistic form (expressed by percentages) and the fractional form (expressed by fractions). The purpose is to verify a different management of credit on the basis of a different expression of the representation of risk. The scientific outline refers to the most relevant studies in the field of decision making, which show the demonstrations and the experiments carried out by different authors starting from the investigations by Kahneman and Tversky. These results joined in their most accredited two theories: the Framing Effect and the Cumulative Prospect Theory, an evolution of the Prospect Theory. The following survey is designed to experimentally demonstrate the change in preferences on the basis of a different numeric representation of uncertainty. The study considers a generic sample of 100 individuals who were submitted two questionnaires especially designed. The obtained data were drawn up with statistic means in order to find out common norms in decision-making processes. The results showed the tendency of individuals to assign a different preference on the basis of the numeric representation, probabilistic or fractional. Referring to this feedback, one hypothesis is proposed as well as a new theory linked to the informative context of the options is presented.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bonini, N.: Il sesto senso. Emozione e razionalità nella decisione quotidiana. Il Sole 24 Ore Libri, Milano (2009)
Ferrante, D.: Appunti di lezione del corso di Psicologia dei processi cognitivi. Università di Trieste. http://www.psico.units.it/fac/mdida09/fe_ipp5.pdf (2006)
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U.: How to improve bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency format. Psychol. Rev. 102 (1995)
Girotto, S.: Errare ragionando. KOS Rivista di medicina, cultura e scienze umane. 187, 40–49 (2001)
Halpern J.Y.: Reasoning About Uncertainty. MIT Press, Cambridge (2005)
Juslin P., Nilsson H., Winman A.: Probability theory, not the very guide of life. Psychol. Rev. 116, 856–874 (2009)
Kahneman, D.: Maps of bounded rationality: A perspective on intuitive judgment and choice Daniel Kahneman. Prize Lecture, December 8, Princeton University (2002)
Kahneman, D., Tversky, A.: Advance in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 5(4). http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=lwr6176230786245 (1992)
Kahneman D., Tversky A.: Choices, Values and Frames. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000)
Kessler O.: Uncertainty, rationality and the study of social institutions. Rev. Soc. Econ. 66, 501–522 (2008)
Kerry G.: The impermanence of being: toward a psychology of uncertainty. J. Humanistic Psychol. 43, 96–117 (2003)
Kusev P., van Schaik P., Ayton P., Dent J., Chater N.: Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Memory Cognit. 35, 1487–1505 (2009)
Luxton D., Wenzlaff R.M.: Self-esteem uncertainty and depression vulnerability. Cognit. Emot. 19(4), 611–622 (2005)
Mariani, M.: Decidere e negoziare. Concetti e strumenti per l’azione manageriale. Il Sole 24 Ore Libri, Milano (2004)
Mikels J.A., Reed A.E.: Monetary losses do not loom large in later life: age differences in the framing effect. J. Gerontol. Ser. B Psychol. Sci. Soc. Sci. 64b(4), 457–460 (2009)
Newell B.R., Lagnado D.A., Shanks D.R.: Straight Choices: The Psychology of Decision Making. Psychology Press, Hove, UK (2007)
Rumiati, R., Bonini, N.: Psicologia della decisione. Il Mulino, Bologna (2001)
Sartori R.: Psicologia Psicometrica. LED, Milano (2008)
Shannon C.E.: A mathematical theory of communication. Bell. Sys. Tech. J. 27, 623–656 (1948)
Tversky A., Kahneman D.: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131 (1974)
Tversky A., Kahneman D.: Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. In: Shafir, E. (eds) Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings by Amos Tversky, pp. 673–702. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (2004)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sartori, R., Ceschi, A. Uncertainty and its perception: experimental study of the numeric expression of uncertainty in two decisional contexts. Qual Quant 45, 187–198 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-010-9365-1
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-010-9365-1