Skip to main content

Ambiguity and Ambiguity Aversion

  • Reference work entry
  • First Online:
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
  • 82 Accesses

Abstract

Experimental evidence strongly suggests that subjects facing a decision under uncertainty often find it difficult to assess the relative likelihood of certain events; decision theorists deem such events ‘ambiguous’. Furthermore, subjects generally dislike options (acts) whose final outcome depends upon the realization of such ambiguous events; that is, they are ‘ambiguity-averse’. This article surveys the main decision-theoretic models developed since the mid-1980s to accommodate ambiguity and ambiguity aversion, including Choquet-expected utility (Schmeidler. Econometrica 57: 571–87, 1989) and maxmin expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler. J Math Econ 18: 141–53, 1989). More recent developments in the theory of ambiguity are also briefly summarized.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 6,499.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 8,499.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Bibliography

  • Aliprantis, C., and K. Border. 1994. Infinite dimensional analysis. Berlin: Springer.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Anscombe, F., and R. Aumann. 1963. A definition of subjective probability. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34: 199–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bewley, T. 2002. Knightian decision theory: Part I. Decisions in Economics and Finance 25(2): 79–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camerer, C., and Martin Weber. 1992. Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5: 325–370.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casadeus-Masanell, R., P. Klibanoff, and E. Ozdenoren. 2000. Maxmin expected utility over savage acts with a set of priors. Journal of Economic Theory 92: 33–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chew, H., and E. Karni. 1994. Choquet expected utility with a finite state space: Commutativity and act-dependence. Journal of Economic Theory 62: 469–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choquet, G. 1953. Theory of capacities. Annales de l’Institut Fourier (Grenoble) 5: 131–295.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dempster, A. 1968. A generalization of Bayesian inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 30: 205–247.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellsberg, D. 1961. Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 643–669.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein, L. 1999. A definition of uncertainty aversion. Review of Economic Studies 66: 579–608.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein, L., and M. Schneider. 2001. Recursive multiple-priors. Journal of Economic Theory 113: 1–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein, L., and J. Zhang. 2001. Subjective probabilities on subjectively unambiguous events. Econometrica 69: 265–306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ergin, H., and F. Gul. 2004. A subjective theory of compound lotteries. Mimeo. Econometric society 2004 North American summer meetings, No. 152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghirardato, P., and M. Marinacci. 2002. Ambiguity made precise: A comparative foundation. Journal of Economic Theory 102: 251–289.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghirardato, P., F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, and M. Siniscalchi. 2003. A subjective spin on roulette wheels. Econometrica 71: 1897–1908.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghirardato, P., F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci. 2004. Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. Journal of Economic Theory 118: 133–173.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I. 1987. Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities. Journal of Mathematical Economics 16: 65–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I., and D. Schmeidler. 1989. Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics 18: 141–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilboa, I., and D. Schmeidler. 1993. Updating ambiguous beliefs. Journal of Economic Theory 59: 33–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaffray, J.-Y. 1994. Dynamic decision making with belief functions. In Advances in the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence, ed. R. Yager, J. Kacprzyk, and M. Fedrizzi. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klibanoff, P. 2001. Characterizing uncertainty aversion through preference for mixtures. Social Choice and Welfare 18: 289–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klibanoff, P., M. Marinacci, and S. Mukerji. 2005. A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity. Econometrica 73: 1849–1892.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luce, R., and H. Raiffa. 1957. Games and decisions. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Machina, M., and D. Schmeidler. 1992. A more robust definition of subjective probability. Econometrica 60: 745–780.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L. 1954. The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmeidler, D. 1986. Integral representation without additivity. Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society 97: 255–261.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmeidler, D. 1989. Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica 57: 571–587.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G. 1976. A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Siniscalchi, M. 2006. A behavioral characterization of plausible priors. Journal of Economic Theory 128(1): 91–135.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, G. 2003. Conditional preferences and updating. Journal of Economic Theory 108: 286–321.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Copyright information

© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Siniscalchi, M. (2018). Ambiguity and Ambiguity Aversion. In: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2439

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics