Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this paper, the catastrophic flash flood event which occurred in the western part of Attica (Greece) in November 2017 is reconstructed. The flood event hit the town of Mandra, causing 24 fatalities and huge damages in the properties and the infrastructure. The flood hydrograph was derived using the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. Attention was drawn on the uncertainties of the model output due to the uncertainty of the estimated parameters such as infiltration, friction and the uncertainty of input data. Due to the computational burden related to the model, a global sensitivity analysis based on Morris method was performed. Then, a Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis was performed on the two most influential factors. It was concluded that even the results of the physically based hydrodynamic models are characterised by uncertainties. However, the capability of the hydrodynamic models to describe in detail the dynamics of the overland flow is the main advantage of these models against the conventional hydrological models. It is concluded that the rational use of physically based models for analysing complex storm phenomena with high variable spatial and temporal distribution can lead to a more accurate range of magnitudes of flood peak.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anagnostou MN, Kalogiros J, Marzano FS, Anagnostou EN, Montopoli M, Picciotti E (2013) Performance evaluation of a new rain microphysics algorithm for dual-polarization X-band radars using long-term radar and disdrometer measurements. J Hydrometeorol 14:560–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Antonopoulos V (1999) Hydrology of unsaturated soil zone. AUTH editions (in Greek)

  • Bellos V, Tsakiris G (2015) Comparing various methods of building representation for 2D flood modelling in built-up areas. Water Resour Manag 29(2):379–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellos V, Tsakiris G (2016) A hybrid method for flood simulation in small catchments combining hydrodynamic and hydrological techniques. J Hydrol 540:331–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellos V, Kourtis I, Moreno-Rodenas A, Tsihrintzis VA (2017) Quantifying roughness coefficient uncertainty in urban flooding simulations through a simplified methodology. Water 9(12):944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellos V, Nalbantis I, Tsakiris G (2018) Friction modeling of flood flow simulations. J Hydraul Eng 144(12):04018073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bermúdez M, Ntegeka V, Wolfs V, Willems P (2018) Development and comparison of two fast surrogate models for urban pluvial flood simulations. Water Resour Manag 32(8):2801–2815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borga M, Boscolo P, Zanon F, Sangati M (2007) Hydrometeorological Analysis of the 29 August 2003 flash flood in the Eastern Italian Alps. J Hydrometeorol 8(5):1049–1067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borga M, Stoffel M, Marchi L, Marra F, Jakob M (2014) Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: flash floods and debris flows. J Hydrol 518:194–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown RA, Borst M (2016) Evaluating the accuracy of common runoff estimation methods for new impervious hot-mix asphalt. J Sustain Water Built Environ 2(2):04015010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bryant ML, Bhat S, Jacobs JM (2005) Measurements and modeling of throughfall variability for five forest communities in the southeastern US. J Hydrol 312(1–4):95–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carbajal JP, Bellos V (2018) An overview of the role of machine learning in hydraulic and hydrological modelling. In: Proceedings of 5th European congress of IAHR, “New challenges in hydraulic research and engineering”, Trento, Italy, p 743

  • Carbajal JP, Leitao JP, Albert C, Rieckermann J (2017) Appraisal of data-driven and mechanistic emulators of nonlinear simulators: the case of hydrodynamic urban drainage models. Environ Model Softw 92:17–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter TM, Georgakakos KP (2004) Impacts of parametric and radar rainfall uncertainty on the ensemble streamflow simulations of a distributed hydrologic model. J Hydrol 298(1–4):202–221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christelis V, Hughes AG (2018) Metamodel-assisted analysis of an integrated model composition: an example using linked surface water–groundwater models. Environ Model Softw 107:298–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costabile P, Costanzo C, Macchione F (2013) A storm event watershed model for surface runoff based on 2D fully dynamic wave equations. Hydrol Process 27(4):554–569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diakakis M, Andreadakis E, Nikolopoulos EI, Spyrou NI, Gogou ME, Deligiannakis G, Katsetsiadou NK, Antoniadis Z, Melaki M, Georgakopoulos A, Tsaprouni K, Lekkas E (2019) An integrated approach of ground and aerial observations in flash flood disaster investigations. The case of the 2017 Mandra flash flood in Greece. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 33:290–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimitriadis P, Tegos A, Oikonomou A, Pagana V, Koukouvinos A, Mamassis N, Koutsoyiannis D, Efstratiadis A (2016) Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping. J Hydrol 534:478–492

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaume E, Borga M (2008) Post-flood field investigations in upland catchments after major flash floods: proposal of a methodology and illustrations. J Flood Risk Manag 1(4):175–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gochis DJ, Yu W, Yates DN (2015) The WRF-hydro model technical description and user’s guide, version 3.0. NCAR Technical Document, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  • Hu R, Fang F, Salinas P, Pain CC, Domingo NS, Mark O (2019) Numerical simulation of floods, from multiple sources using an adaptive anisotropic unstructured mesh method. Adv Water Resour 123:173–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalita HM (2016) A new total variation diminishing predictor corrector approach for two-dimensional shallow water flow. Water Resour Manag 30(4):1481–1497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalogiros J, Anagnostou MN, Anagnostou EN, Montopoli M, Picciotti E, Marzano FS (2013a) Optimum estimation of rain microphysical parameters using X-band dual-polarization radar observables. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 51:3063–3076

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalogiros J, Anagnostou MN, Anagnostou EN, Montopoli M, Picciotti E, Marzano FS (2013b) Correction of polarimetric radar reflectivity measurements and rainfall estimates for apparent vertical profile in stratiform rain. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 52:1170–1186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalogiros J, Anagnostou MN, Anagnostou EN, Montopoli M, Picciotti E, Marzano FS (2014) Evaluation of a new polarimetric algorithm for rain path attenuation correction of X-band radar observations against disdrometer. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 52:1369–1380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim J, Warnock A, Ivanov VY, Katopodes ND (2012) Coupled modeling of hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes including overland and channel flow. Adv Water Resour 37:104–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kostiakov AN (1932) The dynamics of the coefficient of water percolation in soils and the necessity for studying it from a dynamic point of view for purpose of amelioration. Soc Soil Sci 14:17–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang J (2010) Evaluation of runoff response to moving rainstorms. Dissertations (2009-); Paper 73, http://epublications.marquette.edu/dissertations_mu/73, Marquette University, Wisconsin, USA

  • Love D, Uhlenbrook S, Corzo-Perez G, Twomlow S, van der Zaag P (2010) Rainfall–interception–evaporation–runoff relationships in a semi-arid catchment, northern Limpopo basin, Zimbabwe. Hydrol Sci J 55(5):687–703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmoodian M, Carbajal JP, Bellos V, Leopold U, Schutz G, Clemens F (2018) A hybrid surrogate modelling strategy for simplification of detailed urban drainage simulators. Water Resour Manag 32(15):5241–5256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marchi L, Borga M, Preciso E, Gaume E (2010) Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk management. J Hydrol 394(1–2):118–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCormack RW (1969) The effect of viscosity in hypervelocity impact cratering. In: AIAA hypervelocity impact conference, Cincinnati, pp 69–354

  • Mishra SK, Singh VP (2003) SCS-CN method. In: Soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) methodology. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 42. Springer, Dordrecht

  • Moreno-Rodenas A, Bellos V, Langeveld J, Clemens F (2018) A dynamic emulator for physically based flow simulators under varying rainfall and parametric conditions. Water Res 142(1):512–527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris MD (1991) Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments. Technometrics 33(2):161–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muthusamy M, Schellart A, Tait S, Heuvelink GBM (2017) Geostatistical upscaling of rain gauge data to support uncertainty analysis of lumped urban hydrological models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(2):1077–1091

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2011) Soil and water assessment tool, theoretical documentation, version 2009, Texas Water Resources Institute Technical Report, 406, Texas A & M University System

  • Nguyen P, Thorstensen A, Sorooshian S, Hsu K, AghaKouchack A, Sanders B, Koren V, Cui Z, Smith M (2015) A high resolution coupled hydrologic hydraulic model (HiResFlood-UCI) for flash flood modelling. J Hydrol 541(A):401–420

    Google Scholar 

  • Paprotny D, Sebastian A, Morales-Napoles O, Jonkman SN (2018) Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years. Nat Commun 9:1985

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pianosi F, Sarrazin F, Wagener T (2015) A Matlab toolbox for global sensitivity analysis. Environ Model Softw 70:80–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutter AJ, Morton AJ, Robins PC (1975) A predictive model of rainfall interception in forests. II. Generalization of the model and comparison with observations in some coniferous and hardwood stands. J Appl Ecol 12(1):367–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Gatelli D, Saisana M, Tarantola S (2008) Global sensitivity analysis: the primer. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh J, Altinakar M, Ding Y (2014) Numerical modeling of rainfall-generated overland flow using nonlinear shallow-water equations. J Hydrol Eng 20(8):04014089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsakiris G, Bellos V (2014) A numerical model for two-dimensional flood routing in complex terrains. Water Resour Manag 28(5):1277–1291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USDA Soil Conservation Service (1972) National engineering handbook, Section 4, hydrology, Washington DC, USA

  • USDA Soil Conservation Service (1986) Urban hydrology for small watersheds, technical release no. 55 (TR-55). United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC

  • Varlas G, Anagnostou MN, Spyrou C, Papadopoulos A, Kalogiros J, Mentzafou A, Michaelides S, Baltas E, Karymbalis E, Katsafados P (2019) A multi-platform hydrometeorological analysis of the flash flood event of 15 November 2017 in Attica, Greece. Remote Sens 11(1):45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xia J, Falconer RA, Lin B, Tan G (2010) Modelling flood routing on initially dry beds with refined treatment of wetting and drying. Int J River Basin Manag 8(3–4):225–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The Computer Centre of NTUA is acknowledged for the access provided to the use of the computer facilities.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management and Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Vasilis Bellos, Ino Papageorgaki, Ioannis Kourtis, Harris Vangelis & George Tsakiris

  2. Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Ioannis Kalogiros

Authors
  1. Vasilis Bellos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ino Papageorgaki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ioannis Kourtis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Harris Vangelis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Ioannis Kalogiros
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. George Tsakiris
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vasilis Bellos.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bellos, V., Papageorgaki, I., Kourtis, I. et al. Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm. Nat Hazards 101, 711–726 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03891-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03891-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation