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Tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran subduction zone

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Abstract

The lack of offshore seismic data caused uncertainties associated with understating the behavior of future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). Future tsunamigenic events in the MSZ may trigger significant near-field tsunamis. Tsunami wave heights in the near field are controlled by the heterogeneity of slip over the rupture area. Considering a non-planar geometry for the Makran subduction zone, a range of random \(k^{-2}\) slip models were generated to hypothesize rupturing on the fault zone. We model tsunamis numerically and assess probabilistic tsunami hazard in the near field for all synthetic scenarios. The main affected areas by tsunami waves are the area between Jask and Ormara along the shorelines of Iran and Pakistan and the area between Muscat and Sur along the Oman coastline. The maximum peak-wave height along the shores of Iran and Pakistan is about 16 m and about \(12{\text{m}}\) for the Oman shoreline. The slip distributions control the wave height along the Makran coastlines. The dependency of tsunami height on the heterogeneity of slip is higher in the most impacted areas. Those areas are more vulnerable to tsunami hazard than other areas.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the developers of Comcot numerical model (Liu et al. 1998). Figures were drawn using the GMT software (Wessel and Smith 1991). We would like to express special thanks to the Editor, Prof. Thomas Glade and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and thoughtful comments. A. Rashidi would like to acknowledge the hospitality of the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden, and the Laboratory of Mathematics (LAMA UMR 5127), University Savoie Mont Blanc, France.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Amin Rashidi & Zaher Hossein Shomali

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

    Zaher Hossein Shomali

  3. Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LAMA, 73000, Chambéry, France

    Denys Dutykh

  4. LAMA UMR 5127 CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, Campus Scientifique, 73376, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France

    Denys Dutykh

  5. Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, Tehran, Iran

    Nasser Keshavarz Farajkhah

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  1. Amin Rashidi
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Correspondence to Amin Rashidi.

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Rashidi, A., Shomali, Z.H., Dutykh, D. et al. Tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran subduction zone. Nat Hazards 100, 861–875 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03848-1

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