Abstract
Coastal environment with high interaction between nature and societies is subject to multi-hazard interaction such as landslides, flood or cliff retreat. These territories are characterized by numerous elements at risk located in valley bottoms, front sea or at the outlets of small dry watershed. The aim is to quantify the potential consequences of EaR by integrating multiple hazards exposure at various scale analyses. To quantify the element at risk, three steps have been required. First, an initial rank has been attributed to each class of element at risk at three different scales analysis. Second, the potential consequences are weighted according to environmental dimension. Third, the consequences are combined with a linear combination of criteria in GIS environment. At medium-scale analysis, element at risk highlighted is built-up areas, national road, railway, lifeline and urban centers. At large-scale analysis, consequences concern any kind of house, apartment and complex located on multiple exposure areas. At local scale, consequences concern buildings located on multiple exposure areas with one floor in mixed materials and built after 1980. Thus, this method proposes an approach with multiple scales analysis and by integrating multiple exposure areas to quantify potential consequences. With the environmental dimension in element at risk analysis, it is an intermediate step to traditional risk analysis and, more specifically multirisk analysis without considering in this case the spatial and temporal dimension of hazards.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbas HB, Routray JK (2013) A semi-quantitative risk assessment model of primary health care service interruption during flood: case study of Aroma locality, Kassala State of Sudan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 6:118–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.10.002
Akbas SO, Blahut J, Sterlacchini S (2009) Critical assessment of existing physical vulnerability estimation approaches for debris flows. Proceedings of landslide processes: from geomorphologic mapping to dynamic modeling, Strasbourg 67
Altenbach T (1995) A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative. In: ASME pressure and piping conference
Birkmann J (2006) Indicators and criteria for measuring vulnerability: theoretical bases and requirements. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards–towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, pp 55–77
Birkmann J (2007) Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environ Hazards 7:20–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.002
Birkmann J, Cardona OD, Carreño ML et al (2013) Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Nat Hazards 67:193–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5
Bollin C, Hidajat R (2006) Community-based disaster risk index: pilot implementation in Indonesia. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards—towards disaster resilient societies. UNU-Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris
Cardona OD (2005) Indicators of disaster risk and risk management— main technical report. IDB/IDEA program of indicators for disaster risk management, National University of Colombia, Manizales
Carlier B, Puissant A, Dujarric C, Arnaud-Fassetta G (2018) Upgrading of an index-oriented methodology for consequence analysis of natural hazards: application to the Upper Guil catchment (southern French Alps). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:2221–2239. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2221-2018
Carpignano A, Golia E, Di Mauro C et al (2009) A methodological approach for the definition of multi-risk maps at regional level: first application. J Risk Res 12:513–534. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870903050269
Cascini L, Peduto D, Pisciotta G et al (2013) The combination of DInSAR and facility damage data for the updating of slow-moving landslide inventory maps at medium scale. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1527–1549. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1527-2013
Çetinkaya EK, Alenazi MJF, Peck AM et al (2015) Multilevel resilience analysis of transportation and communication networks. Telecommun Syst 60:515–537. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11235-015-9991-y
Chang SE, Yip JZK, van Zijll de Jong SL, Chaster R, Lowcock A (2015) Using vulnerability indicators to develop resilience networks: a similarity approach. Nat Hazards 78:1827–1841. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1803-x
Chen Y, Dennis SB, Hartnett E et al (2013) FDA-iRISK—a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards. J Food Prot 76:376–385. https://doi.org/10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-12-372
Chen L, van Westen CJ, Hussin H et al (2016) Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps. Geomorphology 273:150–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.041
Cooke RM, ElSaadany S, Huang X (2008) On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93:745–756. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.017
Corominas J, van Westen C, Frattini P, Cascini L, Malet J-P, Fotopoulou S, Catani F, Van Den Eeckhaut M, Mavrouli O, Agliardi F, Pitilakis K, Winter MG, Pastor M, Ferlisi S, Tofani V, Hervás J, Smith JT (2013) Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bull Eng Geol Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8
Costa S (1997) Dynamique littorale et risques naturels : L’impact des aménagements, des variations du niveau marin et des modifications climatiques entre la Baie de Seine et la Baie de Somme. Geography, Paris I
de Brito MM, Evers M (2016) Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:1019–1033. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1019-2016
de Tsuzuki MSG, Shimada M (2003) Geometric classification tests using interval arithmetic in b-rep solid modeling. J Braz Soc Mech Sci Eng 25:396–402. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1678-58782003000400012
Delahaye D (2003) Du ruissellement érosif à la crue turbide en domaine de grande culture: analyse spatiale d'un phénomène complexe (From concentrated runoff to flash flood in silty loamy plateaux : spatial analysis of a complex phenomena). Bulletin de l'Association de géographes français 80(3):287–301
Delahaye D (2008) Modeling the watershed as a complex spatial system: a review. In: Guermond Y (ed) The modeling process in geography. ISTE, London, UK, pp 191–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470611722.ch9
Dimakos XK, Aas K (2004) Integrated risk modelling. Stat Model 4:265–277
Dilley M, Chen RS, Deichmann U, Lerner-Lam AL, Arnold M (2005) Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. Disaster risk management series, World Bank, Washington, DC
Douvinet J (2006) Intérêts et limites des données « CatNat » pour un inventaire des inondations. L’exemple des « crues rapides » liées à de violents orages (Bassin parisien, Nord de la France). Norois 17–30. https://doi.org/10.4000/norois.1733
Douvinet J, Planchon O, Cantat O, Delahaye D, Cador J-M (2009) Variabilité spatio-temporelle et dynamique des pluies de forte intensité à l’origine des « Crues Rapides » dans le bassin parisien (France). Climatologie 6
Douvinet J, Mallet F, Escudier A et al (2015a) La simulation comme outil d’anticipation des crues rapides dans les petits bassins versants en Seine-Maritime. Revue Internationale de Géomatique 25:99–122. https://doi.org/10.3166/RIG.25.99-122
Douvinet J, Van De Wiel MJ, Delahaye D, Cossart E (2015b) A flash flood hazard assessment in dry valleys (northern France) by cellular automata modelling. Nat Hazards 75(3):2905–2929
Eidsvig UMK, Kristensen K, Vangelsten BV (2017) Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 17:481–504. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-481-2017
Fisson C, Lemoine JP (2016) les niveaux d’eau en estuaire de seine: risque inondation et changement climatique. GIP Seine-Aval 3:35
Fisson C, Lemoine JP, Gandilhon F (2014) Définition de scénarios et modélisation des niveaux d’eau pour la gestion du risque inondation en estuaire de Seine –Synthèse
Fonte C, Minghini M, Patriarca J et al (2017) Generating up-to-date and detailed land use and land cover maps using openstreetmap and globeland30. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf 6:125. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6040125
Franci F, Bitelli G, Mandanici E et al (2016) Satellite remote sensing and GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for flood hazard mapping. Nat Hazards 83:31–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2504-9
Fressard M, Thiery Y, Maquaire O (2014) Which data for quantitative landslide susceptibility mapping at operational scale? Case study of the Pays d’Auge plateau hillslopes (Normandy, France). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:569–588. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-569-2014
Fressard M, Maquaire O, Thiery Y et al (2016) Multi-method characterisation of an active landslide: case study in the Pays d’Auge plateau (Normandy, France). Geomorphology 270:22–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.001
Fuchs S, Birkmann J, Glade T (2012) Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges. Nat Hazards 64:1969–1975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0352-9
Gallina V, Torresan S, Critto A et al (2016) A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment. J Environ Manag 168:123–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.011
Gallina V (2015) An advanced methodology for the multi-risk assessment: an application for climate change impacts in the North Adriatic case study (Italy)
Garcia-Aristizabal A, Gasparini P, Uhinga G (2015) Multi-risk assessment as a tool for decision-making. In: Pauleit S, Coly A, Fohlmeister S et al (eds) Urban vulnerability and climate change in Africa. Springer, Cham, pp 229–258
Gaspar-Escribano JM, Iturrioz T (2011) Communicating earthquake risk: mapped parameters and cartographic representation. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:359–366. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-359-2011
Glade T, Crozier MJ (2005) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, Chichester, West Sussex, England, Hoboken, NJ
Godfrey A, Ciurean RL, van Westen CJ, Kingma NC, Glade T (2015) Assessing vulnerability of buildings to hydro-meteorological hazards using an expert based approach—an application in Nehoiu Valley, Romania. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 13:229–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.06.001
Graff K, Lissak C, Thiery Y, Maquaire O, Costa S, Medjkane M, Laignel B (2019) Multi-hazards consequences in coastal context at different scale analyses (Normandy, France). Oral communication, Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol 21, EGU2019-2319, Session NH9.11
Gumus S, Egilmez G, Kucukvar M, Shin Park Y (2016) Integrating expert weighting and multi-criteria decision making into eco-efficiency analysis: the case of US manufacturing. J Oper Res Soc 67:616–628. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2015.88
Haklay M (2010) How good is volunteered geographical information? a comparative study of OpenStreetMap and ordnance survey datasets. Environ Plan B: Plann Des 37(4):682–703
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013) Changements climatiques 2013 (Les éléments scientifiques), Résumé pour les décideurs
Jeffers JM (2013) Integrating vulnerability analysis and risk assessment in flood loss mitigation: An evaluation of barriers and challenges based on evidence from Ireland. Appl Geogr 37:44–51
Jokar Arsanjani J, Mooney P, Zipf A, Schauss A (2015) Quality assessment of the contributed land use information from openstreetmap versus authoritative datasets. In: Jokar Arsanjani J, Zipf A, Mooney P, Helbich M (eds) Openstreetmap in giscience. Springer, Cham, pp 37–58
Kappes MS, Malet J-P, Remaître A et al (2011) Assessment of debris-flow susceptibility at medium-scale in the Barcelonnette Basin, France. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:627–641. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-627-2011
Kappes MS, Keiler M, von Elverfeldt K, Glade T (2012a) Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review. Nat Hazards 64:1925–1958. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2
Kappes MS, Papathoma-Köhle M, Keiler M (2012b) Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology. Appl Geogr 32:577–590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.07.002
Khan D, Samadder SR (2015) A simplified multi-criteria evaluation model for landfill site ranking and selection based on ahp and gis. J Environ Eng Landsc Manag 23:267–278. https://doi.org/10.3846/16486897.2015.1056741
Kubal C, Haase D, Meyer V, Scheuer S (2009) Integrated urban flood risk assessment—adapting a multicriteria approach to a city. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1881–1895
Lai C, Chen X, Chen X et al (2015) A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory. Nat Hazards 77:1243–1259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6
Laignel B, Costa S, Lequien A et al (2008) Current inputs of continental sediment to the English Channel and its beaches: a case study of the cliffs and littoral rivers of the Western Paris Basin. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplementary Issues 52:21–39. https://doi.org/10.1127/0372-8854/2008/0052S3-0021
Léone F, Asté J-P, Leroi E (1996) L’évaluation de la vulnérabilité aux mouvements de terrains: pour une meilleure quantification du risque/The evaluation of vulnerability to mass movements: towards a better quantification of landslide risks. Revue de géographie alpine 84:35–46. https://doi.org/10.3406/rga.1996.3846
Letortu P, Costa S, Bensaid A et al (2014) Vitesses et modalités de recul des falaises crayeuses de Haute-Normandie (France): méthodologie et variabilité du recul. Géomorphologie: relief, processus, environnement 20:133–144. https://doi.org/10.4000/geomorphologie.10588
Li C, Cheng X, Li N, Du X, Yu Q, Kan G (2016) A framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Int J Environ Res Publ Health 13(8):787
Lissak C, Maquaire O, Puissant A, Malet J-P (2013) Landslide consequences and post crisis management along the coastal slopes of Normandy, France. In: Margottini C, Canuti P, Sassa K (eds) Landslide science and practice. Springer, Berlin, pp 23–30
Lissak C, Maquaire O, Malet J-P et al (2014) Airborne and ground-based data sources for characterizing the morpho-structure of a coastal landslide. Geomorphology 217:140–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.04.019
Liu Z, Nadim F, Garcia-Aristizabal A et al (2015) A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment. Georisk Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 9:59–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2015.1041989
Malet J-P, Thiery Y, Maquaire O, Puissant A (2006) Analyse spatiale, évaluation et cartographie du risque glissement de terrain. Revue Internationale de Géomatique 16:499–525
Maquaire O (1990) Les mouvements de terrain de la côte du calvados recherche et prévention. BRGM, Orléans
Maquaire O, Weber C, Thiery Y, et al (2004) Current practices and assessment tools of landslide vulnerability in mountainous basins. Identification of exposed elements with a semi-automatic procedure. In: Proceedings of 9th international symposium on landslides. Balkema, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, pp 171–176
Marzocchi W, Garcia-Aristizabal A, Gasparini P et al (2012) Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy. Nat Hazards 62:551–573. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x
MEEM/MLHD (2016) Plans de Prévention des Risques Naturels (PPR), Ministère de l’Environnement, de l’Energie et de la Mer (MEEM), Ministère du Logement et de l’Habitat Durable (MLHD). La Documentation Française
Milanesi L, Pilotti M, Belleri A et al (2018) Vulnerability to flash floods: a simplified structural model for masonry buildings. Water Resour Res 54:7177–7197. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022577
Mouroux P, Brun BL (2006) Presentation of RISK-UE Project. Bull Earthq Eng 4:323–339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-006-9020-3
Muis S, Güneralp B, Jongman B et al (2015) Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: a probabilistic analysis using global data. Sci Total Environ 538:445–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068
Nezarat H, Sereshki F, Ataei M (2015) Ranking of geological risks in mechanized tunneling by using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Tunn Undergr Space Technol 50:358–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2015.07.019
Papathoma-Köhle M, Neuhäuser B, Ratzinger K et al (2007) Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 7:765–779
Papathoma-Köhle M, Gems B, Sturm M, Fuchs S (2017) Matrices, curves and indicators: a review of approaches to assess physical vulnerability to debris flows. Earth Sci Rev 171:272–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.06.007
Penadés-Plà V, García-Segura T, Martí J, Yepes V (2016) A review of multi-criteria decision-making methods applied to the sustainable bridge design. Sustainability 8:1295. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8121295
Petrucci O, Gullà G (2010) A simplified method for assessing landslide damage indices. Nat Hazards 52:539–560. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9398-8
Planton S, Le Cozannet G, Cazenave A, Costa S, Douez O, Gaufrès P, Hissel F, Idier D, Laborie V, Petit V, Sergent P (2015) Le climat de la France au XXIe siècle - Changement climatique et niveau de la mer : de la planète aux côtes françaises. Vol. 5 (Action 1 du Plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique-MEEM),. Sous la direction de J. Jouzel, CEA - LSCE/IPSL
Ponniah P (2001) Data warehousing fundamentals: a comprehensive guide for IT professionals. Wiley, New York
Puissant A, Van Den Eeckhaut M, Malet J-P, Maquaire O (2013) Landslide consequence analysis: a region-scale indicator-based methodology. Landslides 11:843–858. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0429-x
Saaty TL (2006) Rank from comparisons and from ratings in the analytic hierarchy/network processes. Eur J Oper Res 168:557–570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.032
Saha AK, Gupta RP, Sarkar I et al (2005) An approach for GIS-based statistical landslide susceptibility zonation? With a case study in the Himalayas. Landslides 2:61–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-004-0039-8
Sahoo B, Bhaskaran PK (2018) Multi-hazard risk assessment of coastal vulnerability from tropical cyclones—a GIS based approach for the Odisha coast. J Environ Manag 206:1166–1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.10.075
Saint-Martin C, Javelle P, Vinet F (2018) DamaGIS: a multisource geodatabase for collection of flood-related damage data. Earth Syst Sci Data 10:1019–1029. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1019-2018
Scheuer S, Haase D, Meyer V (2011) Exploring multicriteria flood vulnerability by integrating economic, social and ecological dimensions of flood risk and coping capacity: from a starting point view towards an end point view of vulnerability. Nat Hazards 58:731–751. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9666-7
Tayyebi A, Pijanowski BC, Tayyebi AH (2011) An urban growth boundary model using neural networks, GIS and radial parameterization: an application to Tehran, Iran. Landsc Urban Plan 100:35–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.10.007
Totschnig R, Sedlacek W, Fuchs S (2011) A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport. Nat Hazards 58(2):681–703
Turki I, Laignel B, Chevalier L et al (2015) On the investigation of the sea-level variability in coastal zones using SWOT satellite mission: example of the Eastern English Channel (Western France). IEEE J Sel Top Appl Earth Obs Remote Sens 8:1564–1569. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2015.2419693
Uzielli M, Catani F, Tofani V, Casagli N (2015) Risk analysis for the Ancona landslide—II: estimation of risk to buildings. Landslides 12(1):83–100
Van der Fels-Klerx HJ, Van Asselt ED, Raley M et al (2018) Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr 58:178–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2016.1141165
Van Westen CJ (2000) The modelling of landslide hazards using GIS. Surv Geophys 21:241–255
van Westen CJ, Castellanos E, Kuriakose SL (2008) Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: an overview. Eng Geol 102:112–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.010
van Westen C, Kappes MS, Luna BQ et al (2014) Medium-scale multi-hazard risk assessment of gravitational processes. In: Van Asch T, Corominas J, Greiving S et al (eds) mountain risks: from prediction to management and governance. Springer, Netherlands, pp 201–231
Vojinovic Z, Hammond M, Golub D et al (2016) Holistic approach to flood risk assessment in areas with cultural heritage: a practical application in Ayutthaya, Thailand. Nat Hazards 81:589–616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2098-7
Wei S-H, Chen S-M (2009) Fuzzy risk analysis based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers. Expert Syst Appl 36:2285–2299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2007.12.037
Yin J, Yu D, Yin Z et al (2016) Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: a case study in the city center of Shanghai, China. J Hydrol 537:138–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.037
Yoon E, Lee D, Kim H et al (2017) Multi-objective land-use allocation considering landslide risk under climate change: case study in Pyeongchang-gun, Korea. Sustainability 9:2306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122306
Zahran S, Brody SD, Peacock WG et al (2008) Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas. Disasters 32:537–560. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2008.01054.x
Zahran E-SMM, Tan SJ, Yap YH et al (2017) A novel approach for identification and ranking of road traffic accident hotspots. MATEC Web Conf 124:04003. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201712404003
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the COMUE Normandy University which has financed the Ph.D. grant of KG and by the ANR scientific project “RICOCHET: multi-RIsk assessment on Coastal territory in a global CHange context” funded by the French Research National Agency (ANR-16-CE03-0008).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Graff, K., Lissak, C., Thiery, Y. et al. Analysis and quantification of potential consequences in multirisk coastal context at different spatial scales (Normandy, France). Nat Hazards 99, 637–664 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03763-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03763-5