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A rapid method for flood susceptibility mapping in two districts of Phatthalung Province (Thailand): present and projected conditions for 2050

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Abstract

This study discusses the application of a multiple logistic regression analysis in Khao Chai Son and Mueang Phatthalung districts (Phatthalung Province in southern Thailand), which were the two worst flooded districts in the 2011 inundation. The aim is to test an easy, rapid, and cost-effective method to asses flood susceptibility in a data-poor country. Climatic, topographic, and geological data have been overlaid with those of the flood events occurred in the study area from 2007 to 2011. Results showed a positive spatial correlation between the northeast monsoon precipitation and flooding. Moreover, using the rainfall projection of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research the proposed model forecasts a sharp increase of flood susceptibility in the study area by the year 2050. Given the versatility of such model, local governments could easily use it to define the areas in their territories most exposed to flood hazard and timely implement risk reduction policies and practices.

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Acknowledgments

This project was carried out with the collaboration of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the Mangroves for the Future program (MFF), and the Sustainable Development Foundation (SDF). These organizations provided support with GIS data, local knowledge, and fieldwork logistics, greatly contributing to the progress and results of this study. The CampusWorld initiative of the Università Politecnica delle Marche at Ancona, Italy, provided part of the funding for this research.

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  1. Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Via Brecce Bianche, 60131, Ancona, Italy

    Michele Marconi, Beatrice Gatto, Michele Magni & Fausto Marincioni

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  1. Michele Marconi
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Correspondence to Fausto Marincioni.

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Marconi, M., Gatto, B., Magni, M. et al. A rapid method for flood susceptibility mapping in two districts of Phatthalung Province (Thailand): present and projected conditions for 2050. Nat Hazards 81, 329–346 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2082-2

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