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Spatiotemporal estimation of land subsidence and ground water level decline in West Thessaly basin, Greece

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Abstract

Groundwater overexploitation in the Western Thessaly basin resulted to the generation of ground deformations. In order to investigate the mechanism of this phenomenon and of its future occurrences, data regarding the temporal variation of ground deformations and water level were examined and analyzed. They were collected from satellite Persistent Scatterer Interferometry measurements and several water wells, respectively. Based on the above data, the spatiotemporal correlation and cross-correlation of deformations and water level were considered. The modeled cross-variogram indicates a spatiotemporal correlation between the two variables, as would be theoretically expected. This correlation permits the application of cokriging to the deformations with water level as an auxiliary variable. Numerical results are more accurate compared with kriging, as indicated by the decreased estimation errors. The above statistical-based model approach will be useful for spatial interpolation at local and basin scale, while, for temporal estimations, medium-term predictions can be made.

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Acknowledgments

The Terrafirma Extension project (http://www.terrafirma.eu.com/index.htm) has funded the SAR imagery processing. The project is one of the many services supported by the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Service Element Programme, promoted and financed by ESA. The project is aimed at providing civil protection agencies, local authorities, and disaster management organisms with support in the process of risk assessment and mitigation by using the PSI. The authors gratefully acknowledge the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) for having processed the SAR data. The authors also acknowledge the Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration of Greece (IGME) and the Thessaly Prefecture for the supply of all necessary borehole data for the analysis. Finally, the authors thank the two anonymous reviewers who made critical reviews and detailed comments and gave the opportunity to substantially improve the original manuscript.

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  1. School of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Heroon Polytechniou St, 15780, Athens, Greece

    K. Modis & D. Sideri

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  1. K. Modis
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  2. D. Sideri
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Correspondence to K. Modis.

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Modis, K., Sideri, D. Spatiotemporal estimation of land subsidence and ground water level decline in West Thessaly basin, Greece. Nat Hazards 76, 939–954 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1528-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1528-2

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