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A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

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Abstract

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been supported by the EU Project TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk and Strategies for the European Region). We want to thank Dr. Silvia Pondrelli for the valuable and constructive comments on moment tensors. Finally, we thank G. Papadopoulos and an anonymous reviewer for the helpful comments that improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. AMRA Scarl, Via Nuova Agnano 12, 80012, Naples, Italy

    Anita Grezio & Paolo Gasparini

  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Creti 12, 40128, Bologna, Italy

    Anita Grezio & Laura Sandri

  3. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Rome, Italy

    Warner Marzocchi

  4. Department of Physical Sciences, University of Naples, “Federico II”, Naples, Italy

    Paolo Gasparini

Authors
  1. Anita Grezio
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  2. Warner Marzocchi
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  3. Laura Sandri
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  4. Paolo Gasparini
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Correspondence to Anita Grezio.

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Grezio, A., Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L. et al. A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. Nat Hazards 53, 159–174 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9418-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9418-8

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