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Analyzing the influences of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclone genesis with a modified genesis potential index

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Abstract

To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Niño cycle on tropical cyclones (TC) is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975–2014, we investigated the influences of two types of El Niño, the eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) and central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño), on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index (MGPI). The composites reproduced for two types of El Niño, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two El Niño types during developing summer (July–August–September) and fall (October–November–December), and decaying spring (April–May–June) and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Niño during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-El Niños during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season (January–February–March) for the two types of El Niño. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Niño decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-El Niño generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yuxing Yang  (杨宇星) & Faming Wang  (王法明)

  2. Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yuxing Yang  (杨宇星) & Faming Wang  (王法明)

  3. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China

    Yuxing Yang  (杨宇星) & Lei Yang  (杨磊)

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  1. Yuxing Yang  (杨宇星)
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  2. Lei Yang  (杨磊)
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  3. Faming Wang  (王法明)
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Correspondence to Yuxing Yang  (杨宇星).

Additional information

Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2012CB417402), the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. LTO1510), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA11010102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41106018), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (No. 41421005), and the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (No. U1406401)

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Yang, Y., Yang, L. & Wang, F. Analyzing the influences of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclone genesis with a modified genesis potential index. Chin. J. Ocean. Limnol. 35, 452–465 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-016-5295-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-016-5295-7

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