Abstract
Climate change is affecting the world’s ecosystems and threatening the economic system, livelihoods and availability of natural resources. Forest ecosystems can be carbon sources or sinks and are therefore integrated in international climate policy. Forest-related carbon mitigation projects are threatened by climate change through altered environmental conditions and forest processes, as well as through synergistic effects of climate change impacts with already existing socioeconomic and environmental stressors. Data on risk management and adaptation strategies were collected by a survey of 28 current forest projects targeting climate change mitigation. Ten of these represent the officially implemented afforestation (A) and reforestation (R) activities under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. Additionally, the official methodologies for AR activities under the CDM (Scope 14) were examined for potential climate change adaptation requirements. As a result, the adaptation of forest mitigation projects to climate change is found to be insufficient. A systematic approach for the inclusion of climate change risk management and adaptation is developed and guidelines for the design of “climate-change-proof” afforestation, reforestation and deforestation avoidance projects are proposed. A broader mainstreaming of the issue is required and clear policy regulations are necessary, especially for the post-Kyoto process.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aber J, Neilson RP, McNulty S (2001) Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors. Bioscience 51(9):735–751. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0735:FPAGEC]2.0.CO;2
Altenkirch W, Majunke C, Ohnesorge B (2002) Waldschutz auf ökologischer Grundlage. Ulmer Verlag, Stuttgart
Asner GP, Knapp DE, Broadbent EN et al (2005) Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 310:480–482. doi:10.1126/science.1118051
Aukland L, Moura-Costa P, Bass S et al (2002) Laying the foundation for clean development: preparing the land use sector. A quick guide to the clean development mechanism. IIED, London
Barker T, Bashmakov I, Bernstein L et al (2007) Technical summary. In: Metz B, Davidson OR, Bosch PR (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of working group iii to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK
Berthelot M, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P et al (2002) Global response of the terrestrial biosphere to CO2 and climate change using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. Glob Biochem Cycles 16(4):31.1–31.16
Birks HH, Ammann B (2000) Two terrestrial records of rapid climate change during the glacial-Holocene transition (14,000-9,000 calendar years B.P.) from Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97(4):1390–1394. doi:10.1073/pnas.97.4.1390
Boisvenue C, Running SW (2006) Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity: evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Glob Chang Biol 12:862–882. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01134.x
Bolte A, Ibisch PL (2007) Neun Thesen zu Klimawandel, Waldbau und Waldnaturschutz. AFZ-Der Wald 61:572–576
Brown S, Swingland IA, Hanbury-Tension R et al (2002) Changes in the use and management of forests for abating carbon emissions: issues and challenges under the Kyoto protocol. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:1593–1605
Bush MB, Hooghiemstra H (2005) Tropical biotic responses to climate change. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Bush MB, Silman MR, Urrego DH (2004) 48,000 years of climate and forest change in a biodiversity hot spot. Science 303:827–829. doi:10.1126/science.1090795
Canadell JG, Kirschbaum MUF, Kurz WA et al (2007) Factoring out natural and indirect effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Environ Sci Policy 10(4):370–384. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2007.01.009
Capoor K, Ambrosi P (2006) State and trends of the carbon market. The World Bank, USA
Carter TR, Kankaanpää S (2003) A preliminary examination of adaptation to climate change in Finland. The Finnish environment 640. Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
Carvalho G, Moutinho P, Nepstad D et al (2004) An amazon perspective on the forest-climate connection: opportunity for climate mitigation, conservation and development? Environ Dev Sustain 6:163–174. doi:10.1023/B:ENVI.0000003635.86980.c0
Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance (2005) Climate, community and biodiversity project design standards. http://www.climate-standards.org/standards/index.html. Cited in Dec 2007
Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance (2007) The Climate, community and biodiversity alliance. Who we are. http://www.climate-standards.org/who/index.html. Cited in Dec 2007
Dale VH, Joyce LA, McNulty S et al (2001) Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51(9):723–734. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2
Davidson DJ, Williamson T, Parkins JR (2003) Understanding climate change risk and vulnerability in northern forest-based communities. Can J For Res 33:2252–2261. doi:10.1139/x03-138
Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292:673–679. doi:10.1126/science.292.5517.673
Drake BG, Hughes L, Johnson EA et al (2005) Synergistic effects. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Dukes JS, Mooney HA (1999) Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends Ecol Evol 14(4):135–139. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(98)01554-7
Dullinger S, Dirnböck T, Grabherr G (2004) Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility. J Ecol 92:241–252. doi:10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00872.x
Dutschke M (2005) Klimaschutz, Artenvielfalt und Armutsbekämpfung–Bündnis sucht Mehrfachnutzen von Kohlenstoffspeichern. In: Korn H, Schliep R, Stadler J (ed) Biodiversität und Klima—Vernetzung der Akteure in Deutschland—Ergebnisse und Dokumentation des Auftaktworkshops. Bundesamt für Naturschutz Skripten 131, Germany
Farley KA, Jobbagy EG, Jackson RB (2005) Effects of afforestation on water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy. Glob Chang Biol 11:1565–1576. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01011.x
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2006) Responsible management of planted forests: voluntary guidelines. FAO, Rome
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (2007) State of the world’s forests. FAO, Rome
Forner C (2005) Inter-linkages between adaptation and mitigation. In: Robledo C, Kanninen M, Pedroni L (eds) Tropical forests and adaptation to climate change: in search for synergies. Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
G8 (2007) Zusammenfassung des vorsitzes G8 meeting 2007 in Heiligendamm, Germany. http://www.g-8.de/Content/DE/Artikel/G8Gipfel/gipfeldokumente.html. Cited in Dec 2007
Hammill A, Leclerc L, Myatt-Hirvonen O et al (2005) Using the sustainable livelihoods approach to reduce vulnerability to climate change. In: Robledo C, Kanninen M, Pedroni L (eds) Tropical forests and adaptation to climate change: in search for synergies. Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
Hannah L, Lovejoy TE, Schneider SH (2005) Biodiversity and climate change in context. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Hansen AJ, Neilson RP, Dale VH et al (2001) Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience 51(9):765–779. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0765:GCIFRO]2.0.CO;2
Hansen AJ, Sato M, Ruedy R et al (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(39):14288–14293. doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103
Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already. Trends Ecol Evol 15(2):56–61. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(99)01764-4
Hulme M (2005) Recent climate trends. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Ibisch PL (2006) Klimaschutz versus Waldnaturschutz? Chancen, Gefahren und Handlungsoptionen für den Naturschutz im Wald. In: Höltermann A, Hiermer JD (ed) Wald, Naturschutz und Klimawandel—Ein Workshop zur Zukunft des Naturschutzes im Wald vor dem Hintergrund des globalen Klimawandels. Bundesamt für Naturschutz Skripten 185, Germany
Ibisch PL, Dutschke M, Seifert-Granzin J (2007) Forests, carbon and international climate policy. In: Welp M, Wicke L, Jaeger C (ed) PIK report No. 107 Climate policy in the coming phases of the Kyoto process: targets, instruments, and the role of the Cap and Trade Schemes. Proceedings of the International Symposium February 20–21, 2006, Brussels
IUCN (World Conservation Union) (2004) Afforestation and reforestation for climate change mitigation: potential for pan-European action. IUCN, Poland
Jackson RB, Jobbágy EG, Avissar R et al (2005) Trading water for carbon with biological carbon sequestration. Science 310:1944–1947. doi:10.1126/science.1119282
Jellinek S, Townshend T (2007) Agreed statement from the Globe G8 + 5 legislators’ forum on climate change. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/0,contentMDK:21359011~menuPK:2643897~pagePK:64020865~piPK:149114~theSitePK:244381,00.html. Cited in Dec 2007
Jenkins G, Betts R, Collins M et al (2005) Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change—a summary of relevant research at the Hadley centre. Hadley Centre, UK
Jobbágy EG, Jackson RB (2004) Groundwater use and salinization with grassland afforestation. Glob Change Biol 10:1299–1312. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00806.x
Jones PG (2005) Modelling local climate change in developing countries: problems and possible solutions. In: Robledo C, Kanninen M, Pedroni L (eds) Tropical forests and adaptation to climate change—in search for synergies. Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
Jones PG, Amador J, Campos M et al (2005) Generating climate change scenarios at high resolution for impact studies and adaptation: focus on developing countries. In: Robledo C, Kanninen M, Pedroni L (eds) Tropical forests and adaptation to climate change–in search for synergies. Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
Kerr S, Hendy J, Liu S et al (2004) Tropical forest protection, uncertainty, and the environmental integrity of carbon mitigation policies. Motu working paper 04-03. Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, New Zealand
Laclau JP, Ranger J, Deleporte P et al (2005) Nutrient cycling in a clonal stand of Eucalyptus and an adjacent savanna ecosystem in Congo-3. Input–output budgets and consequences for the sustainability of the plantations. For Ecol Manage 210:375–391. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2005.02.028
Maciver DC, Wheaton E (2005) Tomorrow’s forests: adapting to a changing climate. Clim Change 70:273–282. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5950-z
Mahrenholz P, Georgi B (2005) Braucht Klimaschutz biologische Vielfalt? In: Korn H, Schliep R, Stadler J (ed) Biodiversität und Klima—Vernetzung der Akteure in Deutschland—Ergebnisse und Dokumentation des Auftaktworkshops. Bundesamt für Naturschutz Skripten 131, Germany
Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st Century. Science 305:994–997. doi:10.1126/science.1098704
Müller M (2004) Klimawandel–Auswirkungen auf abiotische Schadeinflüsse und auf Waldbrände sowie mögliche forstliche Anpassungsstrategien. In: Brandenburgischer Forstverein (ed) Klimawandel-Wie soll der Wald der Zukunft aussehen? Brandenburgischer Forstverein. Eberswalde, Germany
Murdiyarso D, Robledo C, Brown S et al (2005) Linkages between mitigation and adaptation in land-use change and forestry activities. In: Robledo C, Kanninen M, Pedroni L (eds) Tropical forests and adaptation to climate change—in search for synergies. Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
Niles JO, Brown S, Pretty J et al (2002) Potential carbon mitigation and income in developing countries from changes in use and management of agricultural and forest lands. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:1621–1639
Nosetto MD, Jobbágy EG, Paruelo JM (2005) Land-use change and water losses: the case of grassland afforestation across a soil textural gradient in central Argentina. Glob Chang Biol 11:1101–1117. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00975.x
Nosetto MD, Jobbágy EG, Paruelo JM (2006) Carbon sequestration in semi-arid rangelands: comparison of Pinus Ponderosa plantations and grazing exclusion in NW Patagonia. J Arid Environ 67:142–156. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.12.008
Noss RF (2001) Beyond Kyoto: forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conserv Biol 15(3):578–590. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.015003578.x
Overpeck J, Cole J, Bartlein P (2005) A “paleoperspective” on climate variability and change. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (2007) Technical summary. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. contribution of working group ii to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK
Peterson G, De Leo GA, Hellmann JJ et al (1997) Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. Conserv Ecol 1(2):article 4. http://www.consecol.org/vol1/iss2/art4. Cited in Dec 2007
Pietersen W (2002) Reinventing strategy: using strategic learning to create and sustain breakthrough performance. Wiley, New York
Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P et al (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(24):10288–10293. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104
Reich PB, Hobbie SE, Lee T et al (2006) Nitrogen limitation constrains sustainability of ecosystem response to CO2. Nature 440:922–925. doi:10.1038/nature04486
Root TL, Hughes L (2005) Present and future phenological changes in wild plants and animals. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Rosenbaum KL, Schöne D, Mekouar A (2004) Climate change and the forest sector—possible national and subnational legislation. FAO forestry paper. FAO, Rome
Salinger MJ, Sivakumar MVK, Motha R (2005) Reducing vulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and change: workshop summary and recommendations. Clim Chang 70:341–362. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5954-8
Santilli M, Moutinho P, Schwartzman S et al (2005) Tropical deforestation and the Kyoto protocol. Clim Chang 71:267–276. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-8074-6
Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D et al (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336. doi:10.1038/nature02300
Schlamadinger B, Ciccarese L, Dutschke M, et al. (2005) Should we include avoidance of deforestation in the international response to climate change? In: Mudiyarso D, Herawati H (ed) Carbon forestry: who will benefit? Proceedings of workshop carbon sequestration and sustainable livelihoods held in Bogor 16–17 February 2005, Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW et al (2006) A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(35):13116–13120. doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103
Slik JWF (2004) El Niño droughts and their effects on tree species composition and diversity in tropical rain forests. Oecologia 141:114–120. doi:10.1007/s00442-004-1635-y
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (2007) Technical summary. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK
Spittlehouse DL, Stewart RB (2004) Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC J Ecosyst Manage 4(1):7–17
Stock M (2003) Chancen und Risiken von Regionen im Klimawandel: welche Strategien kann die Wissenschaft ableiten? In: Karl H, Pohl J (ed) Raumorientiertes Risikomanagement in Technik und Umwelt. Hannover
Stuart MD, Moura-Costa P (1998) Climate change mitigation by forestry: a review of international initiatives. IIED, London
Totten M, Pandya SI, Janson-Smith T (2003) Biodiversity, climate, and the Kyoto protocol: risks and opportunities. Front Ecol Environ 1(5):262–270
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006a) Revised approved afforestation and reforestation baseline methodology AR-AM0001—Reforestation of degraded land. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Approved afforestation and reforestation baseline methodology AR-AM0002—Restoration of degraded lands through afforestation/reforestation. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Revisision to the approved afforestation and reforestation baseline and monitoring methodology AR-AM0003—Afforestation and reforestation of degraded land through tree planting, assisted natural regeneration and control of animal grazing. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Approved afforestation and reforestation baseline methodology AR-AM0004—Reforestation or afforestation of land currently under agricultural use. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Afforestation and reforestation baseline methodology AR-AM0005—Afforestation and reforestation project activities implemented for industrial and/or commercial uses. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Approved afforestation and reforestation baseline and monitoring methodology AR-AM0006—Afforestation/reforestation with trees supported by shrubs on degraded land. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Approved afforestation and reforestation baseline and monitoring methodology AR-AM0007—Afforestation and reforestation of land currently under agricultural or pastoral use. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/ARmethodologies/approved_ar.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006) Revised simplified baseline and monitoring methodologies for selected small-scale afforestation and reforestation project activities under the clean development mechanism. http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/SSCmethodologies/SSCAR/approved.html. Cited in Dec 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2007) The mechanisms under the Kyoto protocol: the clean development mechanism, joint implementation and emissions trading. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/mechanisms/items/1673.php. Cited in Dec 2007
van Vuuren DP, Sala OE, Pereira HM (2006) The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. Ecol Soc 11(2):25. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art25/. Cited in Dec 2007
Warren FJ, Barrow E, Schwartz R (2004) Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The Government of Canada, Canada
Watson RT (2005) Emissions reductions and alternative futures. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven
Watson RT, Noble IR, Bolin B, et al. (eds) (2000) Land use, land-use change, and forestry. A special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK
Wellstead AM, Davidson DJ, Stedman RC (2006) Assessing approaches to climate-change-related policy formulation in British Columbia’s forest sector: the case of the mountain pine beetle epidemic. BC J Ecosyst Manage 7(3):1–9
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR et al (2006) Warming and earlier spring increases Western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940–943. doi:10.1126/science.1128834
Yarie J, Parton B (2005) Potential changes in carbon dynamics due to climate change measured in the past two decades. Can J For Res 35:2258–2267. doi:10.1139/x05-106
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Reyer, C., Guericke, M. & Ibisch, P.L. Climate change mitigation via afforestation, reforestation and deforestation avoidance: and what about adaptation to environmental change?. New Forests 38, 15–34 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-008-9129-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-008-9129-0