Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Scenarios for Future Development

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Climate Adaptation Santiago

Abstract

The analysis and governance of climate change in urban regions, notably in mega-urban agglomerations, faces a dual challenge: firstly, that of dealing with the increasing complexities and dynamics of the different drivers of development, institutions, and actors; secondly, of considering the limited knowledge of both climate change events and their impacts on natural and social systems, particularly at local level. Given that political and societal decisions must be taken under uncertainty conditions, the scenario method plays a major role in providing decision-makers with a basis from which to generate the relevant orientation and action knowledge. Being well-founded as a tool to cope with such complexities and uncertainties, scenarios are applied since long time in several thematic contexts. In this chapter, basic scenario functions, types, challenges and requirements are addressed and pointed out for the specific context of climate change adaptation efforts. The three-step methodological approach and the conceptual and analytical framework applied to the case of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile (MRS) are described in detail. Finally, selected methodological responses to challenges associated with the analysis and advisory efforts to improve adaptive capacities in strategic urban planning in this regional context are highlighted.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Banco Central de Chile. (2011a). Indicadores Economicos y Sociales de Chile 1960-2000. Santiago de Chile. (http://www.bcentral.cl/publicaciones/estadisticas/informacion/)

  • Banco Central de Chile. (2011b). Producto Interno Bruto Regional 2003-2006, base 2003. Santiago de Chile (http://www.bcentral.cl/publicaciones/estadisticas/actividad-economica-gasto/aeg07b.htm)

  • Banco Central de Chile. (2011c). Cuentas Nacionales de Chile 1996-2005. Santiago de Chile (http://www.bcentral.cl/publicaciones/estadisticas/actividad-economica-gasto/pdf/ctasnac2005.pdf)

  • Banco Central de Chile. (2011d). Producto interno bruto por actividad y por region. Santiago de Chile (http://www.bcentral.cl/estadisticas-economicas/series-indicadores/index.htm)

  • Barton, J., Kopfmüller, J., & Stelzer, V. (2011). Project “ClimateAdaptationSantiago” (CAS): Quantitative variables: tendencies and scenario estimations 2010–2050. Unpublished working paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berkhout, F. (2002). Technological regimes, path dependency and the environment. Global Environmental Change, 12(2), 1–4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berkhout, F., Herton, J., & Jordon, A. (2002). Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: Using scenarios as ‘learning machines’. Global Environmental Change, 12(2), 83–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Betsill, M., & Bulkeley, H. (2007). Looking back and thinking ahead: A decade of cities and climate change research. Local Environment, 12(5), 447–456.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biggs, C., Edwards, T., Rickards, L., & Wiseman, J. (2011). Scenario planning for climate adaptation. Victoria: Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide. Futures, 38(7), 723–739.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner, R., & Steelman, T. (2005). Towards adaptive governance. In R. Brunner, T. Steelman, L. Coe-Juell, C. Cromley, C. Edwards, & D. Tucker (Eds.), Adaptive governance: Integrating science, policy and decision making (pp. 268–303). New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Laat, B. (1996). Scripts for the future: Technology foresight, strategic evaluation and socio-technical networks. The confrontation of script-based scenarios. Amsterdam: University of Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fink, A., Siebe, A., & Kuhle, J. (2004). How scenarios support strategic early warning processes. Foresight, 6(3), 173–185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folke, C., Hahn, T., Olsson, P., & Norberg, J. (2005). Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. Annual Review of Environmental Resources, 30, 411–473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallopin, G. (2006). Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 293–303.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INE. (1992, 2002). Censo de Población y Vivienda. Santiago de Chile.

    Google Scholar 

  • INE – Instituto National de Estadísticas. (2010). Proyecciones de población 1990-2020, por región y comuna. Santiago de Chile (http://www.ine.cl/canales/chile_estadistico/demografia_y_vitales/proyecciones/DatCom/SalComUsuarios-13Tok.xls)

  • IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policy Makers. Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobson, C., Hughey, K., Allen, W., Rixecker, S., & Carter, R. (2009). Toward more reflexive use of adaptive management. Society and Natural Resources, 22(5), 484–495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, R., & Preston, B. (2010). Adaptation and risk management. Climate Change Working Paper No. 15. Melbourne: Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University Melbourne.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of future and scenario analysis. Overview, assessment and selection criteria (Studies No. 39). Bonn: German Institute for Development Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario planning: The link between future and strategy. London: Palgrave McMillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magud, N. (2010, September 29). Chile: Strong recovery after devastating earthquake. In: International Monetary Fund Survey Magazine: Countries & Regions, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • MIDEPLAN – Ministerio de Planificación y Cooperación. (2006). Encuesta Casen, different years. Santiago de Chile (http://www.mideplan.cl/casen/)

  • Moser, S., & Ekstrom, J. (2010). A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 22026–22031.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sardar, Z. (1999). Rescuing all our futures: The future of future studies. Westport: Praeger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoemaker, P. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sondeijker, S., Geurts, J., Rotmans, J., & Tukker, A. (2006). Imagining sustainability: The added value of transition scenarios in transition management. Foresight, 8(1), 15–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swart, R., Raskin, P., & Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: Sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Notten, P., Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M., & Rothman, D. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5), 423–443.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Volkery, A., & Ribeiro, T. (2009). Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technological Forecast and Social Change, 76(9), 1198–1207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiek, A., Binder, C., & Scholz, R. (2006). Functions of scenarios in transition processes. Futures, 38(7), 740–766.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woll, T. (2010). Synopsis of global scenario surveys. Risk Habitat Megacity project working paper, Karlsruhe.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. KIT Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 36 40, 76021, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Jürgen Kopfmüller

Authors
  1. Jürgen Kopfmüller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jürgen Kopfmüller .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

    Kerstin Krellenberg

  2. Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

    Bernd Hansjürgens

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kopfmüller, J. (2014). Scenarios for Future Development. In: Krellenberg, K., Hansjürgens, B. (eds) Climate Adaptation Santiago. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39103-3_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation