Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper analyzes potential impacts of climate change on biomass carbon (C) density and water-use (actual evapotranspiration, AET) of savannah woodlands in Sudan. Climate change scenarios were developed from five General Circulation Models (GCMs; CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHam4, HadCM3 and PCM) under two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission scenarios (A1FI and B1). Baseline (1961-90) climate and climate change scenarios for 2080s for eight map sheet grids (1° latitude x 1.5° longitude) were constructed. Compared to baseline values, mean annual precipitation (MAP) showed both increases (+112 to +221 mm) and decreases (−13 to −188 mm) but mean annual temperature (MAT) only showed increases (+1.2 to +8.3 °C). Baseline biomass C densities showed an exponential relationship with MAP (y = 6.798 e 0.0054x, R2 = 0.70). Depending on climate change MAP, biomass C densities increased (+14 to +241 g C m−2) or decreased (−1 to −148 g C m−2). However, because of uncertainty in biomass C density estimates, the changes were only significant (P <0.05) for some of the climate change scenarios and for grids with MAP >260 mm. Under A1FI emission scenarios, only HadCM3 did not have a significant effect while under B1 emission scenarios, only CGCM2 and ECHam4 had a significant effect on biomass C density. AET also showed both increases (+100 to +145 mm for vertisols and +82 to +197 mm for arenosols) and decreases (−12 to −178 mm for vertisols and −12 to −132 mm for arenosols). The largest relative changes in AET (up to 31 %) were associated with grids receiving the lowest rainfall. Thus, even if MAP increases across the study region, the increase will have little impact on biomass levels in the driest areas of the region, emphasizing the need for improved management and use of savannah woodlands.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alam SA, Starr M (2009) Deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions associated with fuelwood consumption of the brick making industry in Sudan. Sci Total Environ 407:847–852

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO irrigation and drainage paper no. 56. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnell NG (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:31–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ayoub AT (1998) Extent, severity and causative factors of land degradation in the Sudan. J Arid Environ 38:397–409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ayoub AT (1999) Land degradation, rainfall variability and food production in the Sahelian zone of the Sudan. Land Degrad Develop 10:489–500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black JN (1956) The distribution of solar radiation over the earth’s surface. Arch Meteorol Geophys Bioklimatol B7:165–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boko M, Niang I, Nyong A, Vogel C, Githeko A, Medany M, Osman-Elasha B, Tabo R, Yanda P (2007) Africa. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: impacts: adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 433–467

    Google Scholar 

  • Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2008) Managing forests for climate change mitigation. Science 320:1456–1457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Canadell J, Jackson RB, Ehleringer JB, Mooney HA, Sala OE, Schulze ED (1996) Maximum rooting depth of vegetation types at the global scale. Oecologia 108:583–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 847–940

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper PJM, Keatinge JDH, Hughes G (1983) Crop evapotranspiration-A technique for calculation of its components by field measurements. Field Crop Res 7:299–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon RK, Schroeder PE, Winjum JK (1991) Assessment of promising forest management practices and technologies for enhancing the conservation and sequestration of atmospheric carbon and their costs at the site level. EPA/600/3-9/067. Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Dixon RK, Brown S, Houghton RA, Solomon AM, Trexler MC, Wisniewski J (1994) Carbon pools and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science 263:185–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dregne HE (2002) Land degradation in the drylands. Arid Land Res Manag 16:99–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elagib NA, Mansell MG (2000a) Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan. GeoJournal 50:311–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elagib NA, Mansell MG (2000b) Recent trends and anomalies in mean seasonal and annual temperatures over Sudan. J Arid Environ 45:263–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elshamy ME, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A (2009) Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:551–565

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emmerich WE (2007) Ecosystem water-use efficiency in a semi-arid shrubland and grassland community. Rangeland Ecol Manage 60:464–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang J, Chen A, Peng C, Zhao S, Ci L (2001) Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in china between 1949 and 1998. Science 292:2320–2322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2004) Carbon sequestration in dryland soils. World soil resources reports, vol 102. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2005a) New_LocClim: local climate estimator (Version 1.10). Environment and natural resources working paper No. 20 (CD-ROM). FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2005b) Drought-resistant soils: optimization of soil moisture for sustainable plant production. Food, land and water bulletin 11. FAO Land and Water Development Division. http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0072e/a0072e00.htm. Cited 24 Nov 2011

  • FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISS-CAS/JRC (2009) Harmonized world soil database (Version 1.1). FAO/IIASA, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Flato GM, Boer GJ (2001) Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 28:195–198

    Google Scholar 

  • FNC (Forests National Corporation)/MAF (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)/FAO (1998) National Forest Inventory (NFI) for the Sudan. GCP/SUD/047/NET. FNC, Khartoum

    Google Scholar 

  • Frank DA, Inouye RS (1994) Temporal variation in actual evapotranspiration of terrestrial ecosystems: patterns and ecological implications. J Biogeogr 21:401–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser EDG, Termansen M, Hubacek K, Dougill AJ, Sendzimir J, Quinn C (2010) Assessing vulnerability to climate change in dryland livelihood systems: conceptual challenges and interdisciplinary solutions. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP), Working paper no. 24. University of Leeds, Leeds. http://www.cccep.ac.uk/Publications/Working-papers/Papers/20-29/WP24_dryland-livelihood-systems.pdf. Cited 25 Aug 2011

  • Friedlingstein P, Delire C, Müller JF, Gérard C (1992) The climate induced variation of the continental biosphere: a model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum. Geogr Res Lett 19(9):897–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaafar AM, Salih AA, Luukkanen O, El Fadl MA, Kaarakka V (2006) Improving the traditional Acacia senegal-crop system in Sudan: the effect of tree density on water use, gum production and crop yields. Agrofor Syst 66:1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Githae EW, Gachene CKK, Njoka JT (2011) Soil physicochemical properties under Acacia senegal varieties in the dryland areas of Kenya. African J Plant Sci 5(8):475–482

    Google Scholar 

  • Glen WM (1996) National forest inventory for the Sudan. FAO/GCP/SUD/047/NET. Forests National Corporation and Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Khartoum

    Google Scholar 

  • Glenn E, Squires V, Olsen M, Frye R (1993) Potential for carbon sequestration in the drylands. Water Air Soil Pollut 70:341–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon HB, O’Farrell SP (1997) Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon Wea Rev 125:875–907

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Grieser J, Gommes R, Bernardi M (2006) New LocClim—the Local Climate Estimator of FAO. Geophys Res Abstr 8:08305

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffith AL (1961) Dry woodlands of Africa South of the Sahara. Unasylva 15(1)

  • Haberlah D (2005) Satellite worksheet series 1:250.000 of Sudan. In: Gras annual report 2004. Geological Research Authority of the Sudan, Ministry of Energy and Mining, Khartoum

  • Herrmann SM, Anyamba A, Tucker CJ (2005) Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Glob Environ Chang 15:394–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitson BC, Crane RG (1996) Climate downscaling: techniques and application. Clim Res 7:85–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hickler T, Eklundh L, Seaquist JW, Smith B, Ardö J, Olsson L, Sykes MT, Sjöström M (2005) Precipitation controls Sahel greening trend. Geogr Res Lett 32:L21415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulme M (1990) The changing rainfall resources of Sudan. Trans Inst Br Geogr NS 15:21–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulme M, Conway D, Kelly PM, Subak S, Downing TE (1995) The impacts of climate change on Africa. The Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE) Working Paper GEC 95-12. Economic and Social Research Council, London. http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/cserge/pub/wp/gec/gec_1995_12.pdf. Cited 25 Aug 2011

  • Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M, Lister D (2001) African climate change: 1900–2100. Clim Res 17:145–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IIED (International Institute for Environment and Development) (2008) Climate change and drylands. Policy brief for the Commission on Climate Change and Development. IIED, Stockholm. http://www.ccdcommission.org/Filer/pdf/pb_climate_change_drylands.pdf. Cited 24 Aug 2011

  • IPCC (2000) Emissions scenarios: summary for policymakers. A special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jamal A, Huntsinger L (1993) Deterioration of a sustainable agro-silvo-pastoral system in the Sudan: the gum gardens of Kordofan. Agrofor Syst 23:23–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins GS, Adamou G, Fongang S (2002) The challenges of modelling climate variability and change in West Africa. Climate Change 52:263–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamga AF, Jenkins GS, Gaye AT, Garba A, Sarr A, Adedoyin A (2005) Evaluating the national center for atmospheric research climate system model over West Africa: present-day and the 21st century A1 scenario. J Geophys Res 110:D03106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kananji B (1994) Exploration and seed collection of Acacia Senegal in Sudan. In: Palmberg-Lerche C, Souvannavong O, Thomsen A (eds) Forest genetic resources bulletin no 22. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal R (2002) Carbon sequestration in dryland ecosystems of West Asia and North Africa. Land Degrad Develop 13:45–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal R (2004) Carbon sequestration in dryland ecosystems. Environ Manag 33(4):528–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal R (2009) Sequestering carbon in soils of arid ecosystems. Land Degrad Develop 20:441–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Houérou HN (1996) Climate change, drought and desertification. J Arid Environ 34:133–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loik ME, Breshears DD, Lauenroth WK, Belnap J (2004) A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA. Oecologia 141:269–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malagnoux M, Sène EH, Atzmon N (2007) Forests, trees and water in arid lands: a delicate balance. Unasylva 58:24–29

    Google Scholar 

  • MEPD (Ministry of Environment & Physical Development)/HCENR (Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources) (2003) Sudan’s First National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Volume I: Main Communications. MEPD/HCENR, Khartoum. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/sudnc1.pdf . Cited 13 July 2011

  • Mitchell TD, Hulme M (2000) A country-by-country analysis of past and future warming rates. Working Paper No. 1. UEA Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Working Paper No. 55. UEA Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich. http://www.ipcc-data.org/docs/tyndall_working_papers_wp55.pdf. Cited 12 July 2011

  • Murphy PG, Lugo AE (1986) Ecology of tropical dry forest. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 17:67–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nkomo JC, Nyong AO, Kulindwa K (2006) The impacts of climate change in Africa: final draft. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. http://www.deutscher-fluglärmdienst.de/Presse/PMitt/2006/061030c8.pdf. Cited 05 Sep 2011

  • Poussart JN, Ardö J, Olsson L (2004) Effects of data uncertainties on estimated soil organic carbon in the Sudan. Environ Manag 33(1):405–415

    Google Scholar 

  • Raddad EY, Luukkanen O (2007) The influence of different Acacia Senegal agroforestry systems on soil water and crop yields in clay soils of the Blue Nile region, Sudan. Agric Water Manag 87:61–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raddad EY, Luukkanen O, Salih AA, Kaarakka V, El Fadl MA (2006) Productivity and nutrient cycling in young Acacia senegal farming systems on Vertisol in the Blue Nile region, Sudan. Agrofor Syst 68:193–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J Climate 12(10):3004–3032

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruosteenoja K, Carter TR, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H (2003) Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The Finnish Environment 644. Finnish Meteorological Institute and Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarmiento G, Monasterio M (1992) Life forms and phenology. In: Bourlière F (ed) Ecosystems of the world 13: tropical savannas. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V, Amsterdam, pp 79–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Saxton KE, Rawls WJ, Romberger JS, Papendick RI (1986) Estimating generalized soil-water characteristics from texture. Soil Sci Soc Amer J 50(4):1031–1036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheiter S, Higgins SI (2009) Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach. Glob Chang Biol 15:2224–2246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger WH, Gramenopoulos N (1996) Archival photographs show no climate-induced changes in woody vegetation in the Sudan, 1943–1994. Glob Chang Biol 2:137–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solymosi N, Kern A, Maróti-Agóts Á, Horváth L, Erdélyi K (2008) TETYN: an easy to use tool for extracting climatic parameters from Tyndall data sets. Environ Model Softw 23:948–949

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Squires VR (1998) Dryland soils: their potential as a sink for carbon and as an agent to mitigate climate change. Adv GeoEcol 31:209–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Starr M (1999) WATBAL: a model for estimating monthly water balance components, including soil water fluxes. In: Kleemola S, Forsius M (eds) 8th Annual Report 1999 UN ECE ICP Integrated Monitoring. The finnish environment 325. Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, pp 31–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson NL (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. Am Nat 135(5):649–670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiessen H, Feller C, Sampaio EVSB, Garin P (1998) Carbon sequestration and turnover in semiarid savannas and dry forest. Climate Change 40:105–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timberlake J, Chidumayo E, Sawadogo L (2010) Distribution and characteristics of African dry forests and woodlands. In: Chidumayo E, Gumbo AD (eds) The dry forests and woodlands of Africa: managing for products and services. Earthscan, London, pp 11–41

    Google Scholar 

  • UNCCD/UNDP/UNEP (2009) Climate change in the African drylands: options and opportunities for adaptation and mitigation. UNON Publishing Services Section, Nairobi

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP (1992) World atlas of desertification. Edward Arnold, London

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP (2007) Sudan: post-conflict environmental assessment. UNEP, Nairobi

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallace JS (1991) The measurement and modelling of evaporation from semi-arid land. In: Sivakumar MVK, Wallace JS, Renard C, Giroux C (eds) Soil water balance in Sudano Sahelian Zone. Proceedings of the Niamey Workshop, February 1991. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 131–148

    Google Scholar 

  • Walsh RPD, Hulme M, Campbell MD (1988) Recent rainfall changes and their impact on hydrology and water supply in the semi-arid zone of the Sudan. Geogr J 154:181–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Washington WM, Weatherly JW, Meehl GA, Semtner Jr. AJ, Bettge TW, Craig AP, Strand Jr. WG, Arblaster J, Wayland VB, James R, Zhang Y (2000) Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Clim Dyn 16:755–774

  • Weltzin JF, Coughenour MB (1990) Savanna tree influence on understory vegetation and soil nutrients in northwestern Kenya. J Veg Sci 1:325–334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams CA, Albertson JD (2005) Contrasting short- and long-timescale effects of vegetation dynamics on water and carbon fluxes in water-limited ecosystems. Water Resour Res 41:W06005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zahner R (1968) Water deficits and growth of trees. In: Kozlowski TT (ed) Water deficits and plant growth II. Academic, New York, pp 191–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Dawes WR, Walker GR (2001) Response of mean annual evapotranspirationto vegetation changes at catchment scale. Water Resour Res 37:701–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is mainly financed by the Graduate School in Forest Sciences (GSForest), Finland. The authors would like to thank Professor Tim Carter and Mr. Stefan Fronzek (Finnish Environment institute, Finland) for their fruitful discussion on the use of GCMs and SRES emission scenarios for constructing climate change scenarios. The authors also wish to thank Dr Paul J. Krusic (Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University) for providing the idea of using TETYN software for unpacking the climate parameters from CRU TS 2.1 and TYN SC 2.03 dataset. Dr Norbert Solymosi (Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary) is thanked for his support to remove the bug in TETYN software to work with ECHam4 GCM model run with B1 emission scenario based on our recommendation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest Sciences, Viikki Tropical Resources Institute (VITRI), University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014, Helsinki, Finland

    Syed Ashraful Alam

  2. Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014, Helsinki, Finland

    Mike Starr

Authors
  1. Syed Ashraful Alam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mike Starr
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Syed Ashraful Alam.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Alam, S.A., Starr, M. Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18, 979–999 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9403-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9403-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation